Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Onex Corporation (ONEX.TO)
$78.95
-0.09 (-0.11%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 23,785 | 1,102 | 1,138 | 2,031 | 437 | 336.37 | 258.91 | 199.29 | 153.39 | 118.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 2,709 | -2,717 | 892 | 1,470 | 308 | -9.36 | -7.21 | -5.55 | -4.27 | -3.29 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 1,322 | -2,762 | 835 | 1,411 | 242 | -31.52 | -24.26 | -18.67 | -14.37 | -11.06 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1,387 | 45 | 57 | 59 | 66 | 22.15 | 17.05 | 13.13 | 10.10 | 7.78 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2,757 | 988 | 706 | 790 | 161 | 160.80 | 123.77 | 95.27 | 73.33 | 56.44 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 3,737 | 332 | 261 | 4,124 | 4,032 | 803.57 | 618.52 | 476.09 | 366.45 | 282.07 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 2,656 | 123.06 | 127.08 | 226.80 | 48.80 | 37.56 | 28.91 | 22.25 | 17.13 | 13.18 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | 39 | 29 | 25 | 28 | 11.54 | 8.88 | 6.84 | 5.26 | 4.05 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -654 | -3 | -1 | -21.05 | -4.53 | -3.49 | -2.68 | -2.07 | -1.59 | -1.22 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 78.95 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.435 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 85 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.43 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.06% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.401 |
| Total Debt | 3,558 |
| Total Equity | 6,710.75 |
| Total Capital | 10,268.75 |
| Debt Weighting | 34.65 |
| Equity Weighting | 65.35 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 23,785 | 1,102 | 1,138 | 2,031 | 437 | 336.37 | 258.91 | 199.29 | 153.39 | 118.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 2,709 | -2,717 | 892 | 1,470 | 308 | -9.36 | -7.21 | -5.55 | -4.27 | -3.29 |
| EBIT | 1,322 | -2,762 | 835 | 1,411 | 242 | -31.52 | -24.26 | -18.67 | -14.37 | -11.06 |
| Tax Rate | 12.42% | -0.90% | 0.00% | -0.07% | -0.43% | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.20% |
| EBIAT | 1,157.84 | -2,786.76 | 835 | 1,412 | 243.03 | -30.82 | -23.73 | -18.26 | -14.06 | -10.82 |
| Depreciation | 1,387 | 45 | 57 | 59 | 66 | 22.15 | 17.05 | 13.13 | 10.10 | 7.78 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 3,405 | 71 | -3,863 | 92 | 3,228.43 | 185.05 | 142.43 | 109.63 | 84.39 |
| Inventories | - | 2,532.94 | -4.02 | -99.72 | 178 | 11.24 | 8.65 | 6.66 | 5.12 | 3.94 |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | -10 | -4 | 3 | -16.46 | -2.66 | -2.05 | -1.57 | -1.21 |
| Capital Expenditure | -654 | -3 | -1 | -21.05 | -8 | -3.49 | -2.68 | -2.07 | -1.59 | -1.22 |
| UFCF | 1,890.84 | 3,193.18 | 947.98 | -2,516.77 | 577.50 | 3,211.05 | 181.68 | 139.84 | 107.64 | 82.85 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 2,987.86 | 157.30 | 112.66 | 80.69 | 57.79 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 3,396.31 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.47 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 84.51 |
| Terminal Value | 1,544.97 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,077.66 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 4,473.97 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3,447 |
| Equity Value | 1,026.97 |
| Shares Outstanding | 85 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 12.08 |