Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd (OR.TO)
$21.21
-0.43 (-1.99%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 490.47 | 392.60 | 213.63 | 224.88 | 217.81 | 183.28 | 154.22 | 129.77 | 109.19 | 91.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -61.95 | -202.78 | 100.82 | 65.92 | -16.16 | 1.76 | 1.48 | 1.25 | 1.05 | 0.88 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -114.74 | -251.05 | 53.92 | 13.99 | -53.25 | -29.44 | -24.78 | -20.85 | -17.54 | -14.76 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 52.79 | 48.27 | 46.90 | 51.93 | 37.09 | 31.21 | 26.26 | 22.10 | 18.59 | 15.64 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 184.26 | 128.93 | 306.03 | 115.70 | 90.55 | 112.41 | 94.59 | 79.59 | 66.97 | 56.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 12.32 | 6.33 | 12.89 | 14.69 | 11.70 | 8.09 | 6.81 | 5.73 | 4.82 | 4.05 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | 1.66 | 10.03 | 18.60 | 9.72 | 8.18 | 6.88 | 5.79 | 4.87 | 4.10 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.22 | 6.84 | 12.77 | 9.68 | 0.65 | 4.53 | 3.81 | 3.21 | 2.70 | 2.27 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -141.21 | -84.14 | -137.89 | -276.23 | -124.21 | -108 | -90.87 | -76.47 | -64.34 | -54.14 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 21.21 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.649 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 180.65 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 204.98 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -15.07% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.848 |
| Total Debt | 155.57 |
| Total Equity | 3,831.65 |
| Total Capital | 3,987.22 |
| Debt Weighting | 3.90 |
| Equity Weighting | 96.10 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 490.47 | 392.60 | 213.63 | 224.88 | 217.81 | 183.28 | 154.22 | 129.77 | 109.19 | 91.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -61.95 | -202.78 | 100.82 | 65.92 | -16.16 | 1.76 | 1.48 | 1.25 | 1.05 | 0.88 |
| EBIT | -114.74 | -251.05 | 53.92 | 13.99 | -53.25 | -29.44 | -24.78 | -20.85 | -17.54 | -14.76 |
| Tax Rate | 24.97% | 14.71% | 37.82% | 46.13% | 204.98% | 65.72% | 65.72% | 65.72% | 65.72% | 65.72% |
| EBIAT | -86.08 | -214.11 | 33.53 | 7.54 | 55.90 | -10.09 | -8.49 | -7.15 | -6.01 | -5.06 |
| Depreciation | 52.79 | 48.27 | 46.90 | 51.93 | 37.09 | 31.21 | 26.26 | 22.10 | 18.59 | 15.64 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 5.99 | -6.56 | -1.80 | 2.99 | 3.61 | 1.28 | 1.08 | 0.91 | 0.76 |
| Inventories | - | - | -8.37 | -8.57 | 8.88 | 1.54 | 1.30 | 1.09 | 0.92 | 0.77 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 6.62 | 5.93 | -3.09 | -9.03 | 3.88 | -0.72 | -0.60 | -0.51 | -0.43 |
| Capital Expenditure | -141.21 | -84.14 | -137.89 | -276.23 | -124.21 | -108 | -90.87 | -76.47 | -64.34 | -54.14 |
| UFCF | -174.50 | -237.37 | -66.46 | -230.22 | -28.38 | -77.85 | -71.25 | -59.95 | -50.45 | -42.45 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -73.45 | -63.42 | -50.35 | -39.97 | -31.74 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -258.93 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.99 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -43.30 |
| Terminal Value | -1,085.15 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -811.27 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,070.20 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 65.02 |
| Equity Value | -1,135.23 |
| Shares Outstanding | 180.65 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -6.28 |