Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Aura Minerals Inc. (ORA.TO)

$7.67

-0.13 (-1.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 102.49 | 7.67 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 157.71157.70226.20299.87444.56582.65763.631,000.831,311.711,719.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 33.8474.9942.32105.70149.80182.56239.26313.58410.99538.65
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -----182.56239.26313.58410.99538.65
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 11.7920.6638.87117.78161.49132.10173.13226.90297.39389.76
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13.1624.3731.4735.7642.4068.9690.38118.45155.25203.47
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 38.4934.4633.5446.5456.55104.09136.42178.79234.33307.11
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 20.5931.4934.6338.3539.6381.62106.97140.20183.75240.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -8.81-31.50-25.79-51.97-79.47-84.10-110.22-144.46-189.33-248.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.67
Beta 0.132
Diluted Shares Outstanding 72.46
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 55.94
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.220
Total Debt 159.14
Total Equity 555.80
Total Capital 714.94
Debt Weighting 22.26
Equity Weighting 77.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 157.71157.70226.20299.87444.56582.65763.631,000.831,311.711,719.15
EBITDA 33.8474.9942.32105.70149.80182.56239.26313.58410.99538.65
EBIT -----182.56239.26313.58410.99538.65
Tax Rate 35.29%9.42%-62.19%9.28%55.94%9.55%9.55%9.55%9.55%9.55%
EBIAT -----165.12216.42283.64371.74487.21
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable --11.21-7.10-4.29-6.64-26.56-21.42-28.07-36.79-48.22
Inventories -4.030.92-13.01-10.01-47.53-32.33-42.37-55.54-72.79
Accounts Payable -10.903.143.711.2841.9925.3533.2343.5557.08
Capital Expenditure -8.81-31.50-25.79-51.97-79.47-84.10-110.22-144.46-189.33-248.14
UFCF -----48.9277.79101.96133.63175.14
WACC
PV UFCF 4771.7990.38113.79143.26
SUM PV UFCF 466.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.10
Free cash flow (t + 1) 178.64
Terminal Value 8,506.68
Present Value of Terminal Value 6,958.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 7,424.56
Net Debt -2.35
Equity Value 7,426.91
Shares Outstanding 72.46
Equity Value Per Share 102.49