Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Orege Société Anonyme (OREGE.PA)
0.39 €
-0.01 (-2.01%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 0.71 | 2.26 | 0.93 | 2.01 | 2.26 | 3.90 | 6.72 | 11.57 | 19.92 | 34.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -10.45 | -7.99 | -7.08 | -6.10 | -2.86 | -23.57 | -40.58 | -69.90 | -120.38 | -207.32 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -11.78 | -8.37 | -8.07 | -6.76 | -3.37 | -26.41 | -45.49 | -78.35 | -134.93 | -232.38 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.33 | 0.37 | 0.99 | 0.66 | 0.51 | 2.85 | 4.91 | 8.45 | 14.55 | 25.06 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 0.51 | 0.32 | 0.24 | 0.40 | 0.37 | 1.15 | 1.99 | 3.42 | 5.89 | 10.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 0.47 | 1.49 | 0.62 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 2.58 | 4.44 | 7.65 | 13.18 | 22.69 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1.35 | 1.23 | 2.14 | 1.72 | 2.43 | 5.21 | 8.96 | 15.44 | 26.59 | 45.80 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.01 | 1.39 | 1.98 | 0.69 | 1.33 | 3.97 | 6.84 | 11.78 | 20.28 | 34.93 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.87 | -0.09 | -0.28 | -0.15 | -0.07 | -1.30 | -2.25 | -3.87 | -6.66 | -11.47 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.39 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.602 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 51.53 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.04% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.320 |
| Total Debt | 30.56 |
| Total Equity | 20.10 |
| Total Capital | 50.66 |
| Debt Weighting | 60.33 |
| Equity Weighting | 39.67 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 0.71 | 2.26 | 0.93 | 2.01 | 2.26 | 3.90 | 6.72 | 11.57 | 19.92 | 34.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -10.45 | -7.99 | -7.08 | -6.10 | -2.86 | -23.57 | -40.58 | -69.90 | -120.38 | -207.32 |
| EBIT | -11.78 | -8.37 | -8.07 | -6.76 | -3.37 | -26.41 | -45.49 | -78.35 | -134.93 | -232.38 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| EBIAT | -11.78 | -8.37 | -8.07 | -6.76 | -3.37 | -26.41 | -45.49 | -78.35 | -134.93 | -232.38 |
| Depreciation | 1.33 | 0.37 | 0.99 | 0.66 | 0.51 | 2.85 | 4.91 | 8.45 | 14.55 | 25.06 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.03 | 0.88 | -0.71 | -0.17 | -1.08 | -1.86 | -3.21 | -5.53 | -9.52 |
| Inventories | - | 0.13 | -0.91 | 0.41 | -0.70 | -2.78 | -3.76 | -6.47 | -11.15 | -19.20 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.37 | 0.59 | -1.29 | 0.65 | 2.64 | 2.87 | 4.94 | 8.51 | 14.65 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.87 | -0.09 | -0.28 | -0.15 | -0.07 | -1.30 | -2.25 | -3.87 | -6.66 | -11.47 |
| UFCF | -11.32 | -8.61 | -6.80 | -7.83 | -3.16 | -26.09 | -45.59 | -78.51 | -135.21 | -232.86 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -24.86 | -41.39 | -67.94 | -111.49 | -182.98 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -428.66 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.94 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -237.52 |
| Terminal Value | -8,078.90 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -6,348.14 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -6,776.80 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 30.19 |
| Equity Value | -6,806.99 |
| Shares Outstanding | 51.53 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -132.09 |