Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Orege Société Anonyme (OREGE.PA)

0.48 €

-0.01 (-1.84%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -122.26 | 0.48 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 0.712.260.932.012.263.906.7211.5719.9234.30
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -10.45-7.99-7.08-6.10-2.86-23.57-40.58-69.90-120.38-207.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -11.78-8.37-8.07-6.76-3.37-26.41-45.49-78.35-134.93-232.38
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.330.370.990.660.512.854.918.4514.5525.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 0.510.320.240.400.371.151.993.425.8910.14
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1.351.232.141.722.435.218.9615.4426.5945.80
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.011.391.980.691.333.976.8411.7820.2834.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.87-0.09-0.28-0.15-0.07-1.30-2.25-3.87-6.66-11.47
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.48
Beta 0.580
Diluted Shares Outstanding 51.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.271
Total Debt 30.56
Total Equity 24.74
Total Capital 55.30
Debt Weighting 55.27
Equity Weighting 44.73
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 0.712.260.932.012.263.906.7211.5719.9234.30
EBITDA -10.45-7.99-7.08-6.10-2.86-23.57-40.58-69.90-120.38-207.32
EBIT -11.78-8.37-8.07-6.76-3.37-26.41-45.49-78.35-134.93-232.38
Tax Rate 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
EBIAT -11.78-8.37-8.07-6.76-3.37-26.41-45.49-78.35-134.93-232.38
Depreciation 1.330.370.990.660.512.854.918.4514.5525.06
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -0.13-0.910.41-0.70-2.78-3.76-6.47-11.15-19.20
Accounts Payable -0.370.59-1.290.652.642.874.948.5114.65
Capital Expenditure -0.87-0.09-0.28-0.15-0.07-1.30-2.25-3.87-6.66-11.47
UFCF -11.32-7.59-7.67-7.12-2.99-25.01-43.72-75.30-129.68-223.35
WACC
PV UFCF -23.81-39.63-64.97-106.53-174.67
SUM PV UFCF -409.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.04
Free cash flow (t + 1) -227.81
Terminal Value -7,493.88
Present Value of Terminal Value -5,860.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -6,270.08
Net Debt 30.19
Equity Value -6,300.27
Shares Outstanding 51.53
Equity Value Per Share -122.26