Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF)

$26.31

+0.08 (+0.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 148.48 | 26.31 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 62.9972.4296.82110.86116.13135.84158.91185.89217.45254.36
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 23.3431.5548.8855.1152.9261.5171.9584.1698.45115.17
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 20.0727.9143.3348.5447.6254.3263.5574.3386.96101.72
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.263.645.556.575.317.188.409.8311.5013.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 445.12537.66546.85591.72681.15851.51996.091,165.201,363.041,594.46
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.055.936.048.938.2310.2111.9413.9716.3419.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 17.1822.8234.7238.0340.8244.5852.1561.0171.3783.48
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.65-4.79-2.91-1.30-4.36-5.10-5.96-6.98-8.16-9.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 26.31
Beta 0.817
Diluted Shares Outstanding 11.11
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.60
After-tax Cost of Debt 15.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.642
Total Debt 33.86
Total Equity 292.20
Total Capital 326.06
Debt Weighting 10.38
Equity Weighting 89.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 62.9972.4296.82110.86116.13135.84158.91185.89217.45254.36
EBITDA 23.3431.5548.8855.1152.9261.5171.9584.1698.45115.17
EBIT 20.0727.9143.3348.5447.6254.3263.5574.3386.96101.72
Tax Rate 34.91%11.35%13.80%18.60%19.60%19.65%19.65%19.65%19.65%19.65%
EBIAT 13.0724.7437.3539.5138.2843.6551.0659.7369.8781.73
Depreciation 3.263.645.556.575.317.188.409.8311.5013.45
Accounts Receivable --0.88-0.11-2.890.69-1.98-1.73-2.03-2.37-2.77
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -5.6411.903.312.793.767.578.8510.3612.12
Capital Expenditure -2.65-4.79-2.91-1.30-4.36-5.10-5.96-6.98-8.16-9.54
UFCF 13.6828.3651.7745.2042.7247.5259.3369.4181.1994.98
WACC
PV UFCF 44.1651.2455.7060.5565.82
SUM PV UFCF 277.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) 96.88
Terminal Value 1,726.85
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,196.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,474.18
Net Debt -174.85
Equity Value 1,649.03
Shares Outstanding 11.11
Equity Value Per Share 148.48