Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC)
$17.24
-0.39 (-2.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 103.91 | 121.35 | 131.55 | 127.04 | 133.46 | 142.40 | 151.94 | 162.13 | 172.99 | 184.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 49.33 | 63.42 | 73.69 | 53.16 | 40.11 | 64.84 | 69.18 | 73.82 | 78.77 | 84.05 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 46.93 | 60.61 | 70.69 | 49.87 | 36.32 | 61.32 | 65.43 | 69.82 | 74.50 | 79.49 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2.40 | 2.81 | 3 | 3.29 | 3.80 | 3.52 | 3.75 | 4 | 4.27 | 4.56 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 597.27 | 596.48 | 535.28 | 826.08 | 2,444.59 | 1,126.45 | 1,201.95 | 1,282.50 | 1,368.46 | 1,460.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 68.32 | 78.81 | 119.75 | 141.60 | 172.55 | 131.71 | 140.54 | 149.96 | 160.01 | 170.74 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.05 | -1.90 | -4.38 | -3.92 | -2.03 | -2.99 | -3.20 | -3.41 | -3.64 | -3.88 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.24 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.120 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 30.74 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 28.07 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.09% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.922 |
| Total Debt | 148.54 |
| Total Equity | 529.92 |
| Total Capital | 678.46 |
| Debt Weighting | 21.89 |
| Equity Weighting | 78.11 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 103.91 | 121.35 | 131.55 | 127.04 | 133.46 | 142.40 | 151.94 | 162.13 | 172.99 | 184.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 49.33 | 63.42 | 73.69 | 53.16 | 40.11 | 64.84 | 69.18 | 73.82 | 78.77 | 84.05 |
| EBIT | 46.93 | 60.61 | 70.69 | 49.87 | 36.32 | 61.32 | 65.43 | 69.82 | 74.50 | 79.49 |
| Tax Rate | 55.87% | 22.59% | 23.92% | 25.62% | 28.07% | 31.21% | 31.21% | 31.21% | 31.21% | 31.21% |
| EBIAT | 20.71 | 46.92 | 53.79 | 37.10 | 26.12 | 42.18 | 45.01 | 48.03 | 51.25 | 54.68 |
| Depreciation | 2.40 | 2.81 | 3 | 3.29 | 3.80 | 3.52 | 3.75 | 4 | 4.27 | 4.56 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -10.48 | -40.95 | -21.85 | -30.95 | 40.84 | -8.83 | -9.42 | -10.05 | -10.72 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.05 | -1.90 | -4.38 | -3.92 | -2.03 | -2.99 | -3.20 | -3.41 | -3.64 | -3.88 |
| UFCF | 22.06 | 37.36 | 11.46 | 14.62 | -3.06 | 83.54 | 36.74 | 39.20 | 41.83 | 44.63 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 77.45 | 31.58 | 31.24 | 30.90 | 30.57 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 201.75 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.86 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 45.52 |
| Terminal Value | 776.85 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 532.15 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 733.90 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -603.57 |
| Equity Value | 1,337.47 |
| Shares Outstanding | 30.74 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 43.51 |