Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC)

$17.24

-0.39 (-2.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 43.51 | 17.24 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 103.91121.35131.55127.04133.46142.40151.94162.13172.99184.59
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 49.3363.4273.6953.1640.1164.8469.1873.8278.7784.05
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 46.9360.6170.6949.8736.3261.3265.4369.8274.5079.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.402.8133.293.803.523.7544.274.56
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 597.27596.48535.28826.082,444.591,126.451,201.951,282.501,368.461,460.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 68.3278.81119.75141.60172.55131.71140.54149.96160.01170.74
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.05-1.90-4.38-3.92-2.03-2.99-3.20-3.41-3.64-3.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17.24
Beta 1.120
Diluted Shares Outstanding 30.74
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 28.07
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.09%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.922
Total Debt 148.54
Total Equity 529.92
Total Capital 678.46
Debt Weighting 21.89
Equity Weighting 78.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 103.91121.35131.55127.04133.46142.40151.94162.13172.99184.59
EBITDA 49.3363.4273.6953.1640.1164.8469.1873.8278.7784.05
EBIT 46.9360.6170.6949.8736.3261.3265.4369.8274.5079.49
Tax Rate 55.87%22.59%23.92%25.62%28.07%31.21%31.21%31.21%31.21%31.21%
EBIAT 20.7146.9253.7937.1026.1242.1845.0148.0351.2554.68
Depreciation 2.402.8133.293.803.523.7544.274.56
Accounts Receivable --10.48-40.95-21.85-30.9540.84-8.83-9.42-10.05-10.72
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -1.05-1.90-4.38-3.92-2.03-2.99-3.20-3.41-3.64-3.88
UFCF 22.0637.3611.4614.62-3.0683.5436.7439.2041.8344.63
WACC
PV UFCF 77.4531.5831.2430.9030.57
SUM PV UFCF 201.75

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.86
Free cash flow (t + 1) 45.52
Terminal Value 776.85
Present Value of Terminal Value 532.15

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 733.90
Net Debt -603.57
Equity Value 1,337.47
Shares Outstanding 30.74
Equity Value Per Share 43.51