Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Oak Street Health, Inc. (OSH)

$22.14

+0.38 (+1.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -226.48 | 22.14 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 317.94556.60882.761,432.602,368.333,915.256,472.5710,700.2617,689.34
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -71.67-94.36-168.05-391-508.17-840.08-1,388.80-2,295.92-3,795.55
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -75.86-102.21-179.28-408.80-539.19-891.37-1,473.58-2,436.08-4,027.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.187.8511.2317.8031.0251.2884.78140.16231.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 64.7433.99409.31775.80751.881,242.982,054.863,397.035,615.87
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 81.76168.16256.50562.50735.641,216.142,010.483,323.675,494.58
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ---------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.3710.768.8222.1036.4960.3299.72164.85272.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -26.05-27.70-20.88-81.30-125.58-207.61-343.21-567.39-937.99
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 22.14
Beta 2.323
Diluted Shares Outstanding 222.55
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 1.70
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.23%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.471
Total Debt 1,065.60
Total Equity 4,927.33
Total Capital 5,992.93
Debt Weighting 17.78
Equity Weighting 82.22
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 317.94556.60882.761,432.602,368.333,915.256,472.5710,700.2617,689.34
EBITDA -71.67-94.36-168.05-391-508.17-840.08-1,388.80-2,295.92-3,795.55
EBIT -75.86-102.21-179.28-408.80-539.19-891.37-1,473.58-2,436.08-4,027.26
Tax Rate 0.21%1.44%2.13%1.70%1.37%1.37%1.37%1.37%1.37%
EBIAT -75.69-100.73-175.46-401.83-531.79-879.13-1,453.35-2,402.64-3,971.97
Depreciation 4.187.8511.2317.8031.0251.2884.78140.16231.70
Accounts Receivable --86.40-88.34-306-173.14-480.50-794.34-1,313.19-2,170.92
Inventories ---------
Accounts Payable -5.39-1.9413.2814.3923.8339.4065.13107.67
Capital Expenditure -26.05-27.70-20.88-81.30-125.58-207.61-343.21-567.39-937.99
UFCF -97.56-201.61-275.40-758.05-785.10-1,492.12-2,466.73-4,077.92-6,741.50
WACC
PV UFCF -785.10-1,332.97-1,968.57-2,907.25-4,293.54
SUM PV UFCF -10,083.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) -6,876.33
Terminal Value -69,178.34
Present Value of Terminal Value -39,358.96

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -49,442.42
Net Debt 960.90
Equity Value -50,403.32
Shares Outstanding 222.55
Equity Value Per Share -226.48