Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Oak Street Health, Inc. (OSH)

$39

+0.03 (+0.08%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -263.37 | 39 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 317.94556.60882.761,432.602,160.903,494.115,649.889,135.6914,772.1523,886.13
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -71.67-95.94-172.14-396.20-471.80-760.11-1,229.08-1,987.39-3,213.54-5,196.21
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -75.86-103.79-183.36-414-507-808.11-1,306.69-2,112.88-3,416.46-5,524.32
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.187.8511.2317.8035.204877.61125.49202.92328.12
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 64.7433.99409.31775.80425.601,025.061,657.502,680.134,333.697,007.45
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 81.76168.16256.50562.50896.501,158.181,872.753,028.184,896.487,917.47
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -9.6517.1823.6020.6054.8688.71143.44231.93375.03
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.3710.768.8222.1017.1048.5978.57127.05205.44332.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -26.05-27.70-20.88-81.30-89.20-177.07-286.32-462.96-748.60-1,210.46
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 39
Beta 2.228
Diluted Shares Outstanding 230.13
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.04
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.21%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.732
Total Debt 1,327.90
Total Equity 8,975.17
Total Capital 10,303.07
Debt Weighting 12.89
Equity Weighting 87.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 317.94556.60882.761,432.602,160.903,494.115,649.889,135.6914,772.1523,886.13
EBITDA -71.67-95.94-172.14-396.20-471.80-760.11-1,229.08-1,987.39-3,213.54-5,196.21
EBIT -75.86-103.79-183.36-414-507-808.11-1,306.69-2,112.88-3,416.46-5,524.32
Tax Rate 0.21%-3.80%-2.49%0.46%-0.04%-1.13%-1.13%-1.13%-1.13%-1.13%
EBIAT -75.69-107.73-187.93-412.11-507.20-817.25-1,321.46-2,136.77-3,455.09-5,586.78
Depreciation 4.187.8511.2317.8035.204877.61125.49202.92328.12
Accounts Receivable --86.40-88.34-306-334-261.68-714.57-1,155.43-1,868.30-3,020.99
Inventories ---7.53-6.423-34.26-33.85-54.73-88.50-143.10
Accounts Payable -5.39-1.9413.28-531.4929.9848.4878.39126.75
Capital Expenditure -26.05-27.70-20.88-81.30-89.20-177.07-286.32-462.96-748.60-1,210.46
UFCF -97.56-208.60-295.40-774.75-897.20-1,210.77-2,248.60-3,635.92-5,879.18-9,506.47
WACC
PV UFCF -1,067.89-1,749.20-2,494.62-3,557.71-5,073.84
SUM PV UFCF -13,943.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.38
Free cash flow (t + 1) -9,696.59
Terminal Value -85,207.33
Present Value of Terminal Value -45,477.30

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -59,420.57
Net Debt 1,190
Equity Value -60,610.57
Shares Outstanding 230.13
Equity Value Per Share -263.37