Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

OneSpan Inc. (OSPN)

$8.97

+0.10 (+1.13%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 4.14 | 8.97 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 193.29212.28254.57215.69214.48221.94229.66237.65245.91254.47
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 18.9815.6924.978.58-17.2210.2010.5510.9211.3011.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 8.383.5515.50-3.42-26.14-0.74-0.77-0.80-0.83-0.85
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 10.6012.149.47128.9310.9411.3211.7212.1212.54
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 158.3999.50109.79115.2598.49120.42124.61128.95133.43138.07
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 48.9667.5969.4664.7461.3163.5065.7167.9970.3672.81
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 12.0414.4319.8213.0910.3414.0714.5615.0715.5916.14
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8.147.2010.845.688.208.138.428.719.019.32
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.19-3.69-7.45-3.10-2.20-3.90-4.03-4.17-4.32-4.47
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.97
Beta 0.556
Diluted Shares Outstanding 40.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -16.99
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.210
Total Debt 10.18
Total Equity 359.11
Total Capital 369.29
Debt Weighting 2.76
Equity Weighting 97.24
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 193.29212.28254.57215.69214.48221.94229.66237.65245.91254.47
EBITDA 18.9815.6924.978.58-17.2210.2010.5510.9211.3011.69
EBIT 8.383.5515.50-3.42-26.14-0.74-0.77-0.80-0.83-0.85
Tax Rate 367.26%-8.25%43.28%-59.50%-16.99%65.16%65.16%65.16%65.16%65.16%
EBIAT -22.403.858.79-5.45-30.58-0.26-0.27-0.28-0.29-0.30
Depreciation 10.6012.149.47128.9310.9411.3211.7212.1212.54
Accounts Receivable --18.63-1.874.723.43-2.19-2.21-2.29-2.36-2.45
Inventories --2.39-5.396.732.75-3.73-0.49-0.51-0.52-0.54
Accounts Payable --0.943.63-5.152.52-0.070.280.290.300.31
Capital Expenditure -3.19-3.69-7.45-3.10-2.20-3.90-4.03-4.17-4.32-4.47
UFCF -14.99-9.667.189.75-15.160.794.604.764.935.10
WACC
PV UFCF 0.754.0943.903.81
SUM PV UFCF 16.54

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.04
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5.20
Terminal Value 128.81
Present Value of Terminal Value 96.07

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 112.61
Net Debt -53.20
Equity Value 165.81
Shares Outstanding 40.03
Equity Value Per Share 4.14