Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)

$65.73

+0.04 (+0.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -245.50 | 65.73 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 12,50817,82420,39317,80925,95631,795.4238,948.5547,710.9558,444.6571,593.16
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,6735,9971,092-15,5794,851-1,043.72-1,278.53-1,566.16-1,918.51-2,350.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT ------1,043.72-1,278.53-1,566.16-1,918.51-2,350.12
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,6723,0333,0322,0082,7644,271.765,232.796,410.037,852.129,618.64
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4,1454,8936,3732,1154,2087,626.429,342.1611,443.9014,018.4817,172.27
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,2461,2601,4471,8981,8462,664.193,263.573,997.784,897.185,998.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4,4084,8857,0172,9873,8998,193.7510,037.1312,295.2215,061.3218,449.72
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,477-4,920-6,637-3,054-2,773-7,362.48-9,018.85-11,047.85-13,533.33-16,577.97
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 65.73
Beta 1.913
Diluted Shares Outstanding 958.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 37.33
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.33%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.878
Total Debt 30,388
Total Equity 63,021.92
Total Capital 93,409.92
Debt Weighting 32.53
Equity Weighting 67.47
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 12,50817,82420,39317,80925,95631,795.4238,948.5547,710.9558,444.6571,593.16
EBITDA 1,6735,9971,092-15,5794,851-1,043.72-1,278.53-1,566.16-1,918.51-2,350.12
EBIT ------1,043.72-1,278.53-1,566.16-1,918.51-2,350.12
Tax Rate -35.02%21.72%458.60%5.57%37.33%97.64%97.64%97.64%97.64%97.64%
EBIAT ------24.64-30.18-36.97-45.29-55.48
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable --748-1,4804,258-2,093-3,418.42-1,715.74-2,101.74-2,574.58-3,153.79
Inventories --14-187-45152-818.19-599.37-734.22-899.40-1,101.74
Accounts Payable -4772,132-4,0309124,294.751,843.382,258.092,766.103,388.40
Capital Expenditure -3,477-4,920-6,637-3,054-2,773-7,362.48-9,018.85-11,047.85-13,533.33-16,577.97
UFCF ------7,328.98-9,520.77-11,662.69-14,286.49-17,500.57
WACC
PV UFCF -6,717.67-7,998.76-8,981-10,083.85-11,322.14
SUM PV UFCF -45,103.42

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.10
Free cash flow (t + 1) -17,850.59
Terminal Value -251,416.71
Present Value of Terminal Value -162,656.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -207,759.54
Net Debt 27,624
Equity Value -235,383.54
Shares Outstanding 958.80
Equity Value Per Share -245.50