Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Phibro Animal Health Corporation (PAHC)
$11.24
+1.37 (+13.88%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 828 | 800.40 | 833.40 | 942.30 | 977.89 | 1,021 | 1,066.01 | 1,113 | 1,162.07 | 1,213.29 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 83.40 | 69.20 | 74.90 | 79 | 108.49 | 96.35 | 100.60 | 105.03 | 109.66 | 114.49 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 55.84 | 36.86 | 43.01 | 46.30 | 74.48 | 59.30 | 61.91 | 64.64 | 67.49 | 70.47 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 27.56 | 32.34 | 31.89 | 32.71 | 34.01 | 37.05 | 38.68 | 40.39 | 42.17 | 44.03 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 81.57 | 91.34 | 93.21 | 91.25 | 81.28 | 103.01 | 107.55 | 112.29 | 117.24 | 122.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 159.02 | 126.52 | 146.85 | 166.54 | 163.48 | 177.70 | 185.54 | 193.72 | 202.26 | 211.17 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 198.32 | 196.66 | 216.31 | 259.16 | 277.57 | 266.20 | 277.94 | 290.19 | 302.98 | 316.34 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 73.19 | 66.09 | 68.36 | 95.60 | 73.85 | 87.80 | 91.67 | 95.71 | 99.93 | 104.33 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -29.89 | -34.04 | -29.32 | -37.04 | -51.79 | -42.08 | -43.94 | -45.88 | -47.90 | -50.01 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 11.24 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.683 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 40.50 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 39.70 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.56% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.462 |
Total Debt | 509.97 |
Total Equity | 455.26 |
Total Capital | 965.23 |
Debt Weighting | 52.83 |
Equity Weighting | 47.17 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 828 | 800.40 | 833.40 | 942.30 | 977.89 | 1,021 | 1,066.01 | 1,113 | 1,162.07 | 1,213.29 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 83.40 | 69.20 | 74.90 | 79 | 108.49 | 96.35 | 100.60 | 105.03 | 109.66 | 114.49 |
EBIT | 55.84 | 36.86 | 43.01 | 46.30 | 74.48 | 59.30 | 61.91 | 64.64 | 67.49 | 70.47 |
Tax Rate | 23.50% | 39.46% | 18.20% | 31.95% | 39.70% | 30.56% | 30.56% | 30.56% | 30.56% | 30.56% |
EBIAT | 42.72 | 22.31 | 35.19 | 31.50 | 44.91 | 41.18 | 42.99 | 44.89 | 46.87 | 48.93 |
Depreciation | 27.56 | 32.34 | 31.89 | 32.71 | 34.01 | 37.05 | 38.68 | 40.39 | 42.17 | 44.03 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 32.50 | -20.33 | -19.68 | 3.06 | -14.23 | -7.83 | -8.18 | -8.54 | -8.92 |
Inventories | - | 1.66 | -19.65 | -42.85 | -18.41 | 11.37 | -11.74 | -12.25 | -12.79 | -13.36 |
Accounts Payable | - | -7.10 | 2.27 | 27.23 | -21.74 | 13.95 | 3.87 | 4.04 | 4.22 | 4.41 |
Capital Expenditure | -29.89 | -34.05 | -29.32 | -37.04 | -51.79 | -42.08 | -43.94 | -45.88 | -47.90 | -50.01 |
UFCF | 40.39 | 47.68 | 0.04 | -8.13 | -9.97 | 47.23 | 22.04 | 23.01 | 24.02 | 25.08 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 45.04 | 20.04 | 19.95 | 19.86 | 19.77 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 124.66 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 4.87 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 25.58 |
Terminal Value | 891.41 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 702.79 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 827.45 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 468.69 |
Equity Value | 358.76 |
Shares Outstanding | 40.50 |
Equity Value Per Share | 8.86 |