Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Panama Petrochem Limited (PANAMAPET.NS)

326.45 ₹

-2.15 (-0.65%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 396.48 | 326.45 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	13,262.86	12,693.26	10,027.54	14,469.62	21,323.54	24,861.69	28,986.91	33,796.61	39,404.38	45,942.62
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,053.63	982.14	547.04	1,928.04	3,017.22	2,417.13	2,818.19	3,285.81	3,831.01	4,466.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,000.72	922.91	474.52	1,851.91	2,933.22	2,292.38	2,672.75	3,116.23	3,633.29	4,236.15
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	52.91	59.24	72.52	76.12	84	124.75	145.45	169.58	197.72	230.53
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	341.24	156.42	406.80	745.05	1,472.29	990.27	1,154.58	1,346.16	1,569.52	1,829.95
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	4,450.29	3,835.96	2,539.28	3,650.57	4,905.30	6,828.58	7,961.63	9,282.68	10,822.92	12,618.73
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	5,325.18	3,152.01	2,571.87	3,280.58	4,275.92	6,630.91	7,731.16	9,013.97	10,509.63	12,253.45
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-185.01	-232.58	-201.29	-249.91	-301.51	-416.47	-485.57	-566.14	-660.08	-769.61
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 326.45
Beta	1.706
Diluted Shares Outstanding	60.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	19.54
After-tax Cost of Debt	18.88%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.587
Total Debt	300.75
Total Equity	19,746.52
Total Capital	20,047.27
Debt Weighting	1.50
Equity Weighting	98.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	13,262.86	12,693.26	10,027.54	14,469.62	21,323.54	24,861.69	28,986.91	33,796.61	39,404.38	45,942.62
EBITDA	1,053.63	982.14	547.04	1,928.04	3,017.22	2,417.13	2,818.19	3,285.81	3,831.01	4,466.68
EBIT	1,000.72	922.91	474.52	1,851.91	2,933.22	2,292.38	2,672.75	3,116.23	3,633.29	4,236.15
Tax Rate	32.37%	27.48%	10.47%	24.60%	19.54%	22.89%	22.89%	22.89%	22.89%	22.89%
EBIAT	676.81	669.31	424.81	1,396.35	2,360.20	1,767.63	2,060.92	2,402.89	2,801.59	3,266.45
Depreciation	52.91	59.24	72.52	76.12	84	124.75	145.45	169.58	197.72	230.53
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	614.33	1,296.68	-1,111.29	-1,254.73	-1,923.29	-1,133.04	-1,321.05	-1,540.24	-1,795.81
Accounts Payable	-	-2,173.17	-580.14	708.71	995.34	2,354.99	1,100.25	1,282.81	1,495.66	1,743.83
Capital Expenditure	-185.01	-232.58	-201.29	-249.91	-301.51	-416.47	-485.57	-566.14	-660.08	-769.61
UFCF	544.70	-1,062.88	1,012.59	819.99	1,883.31	1,907.61	1,688	1,968.08	2,294.64	2,675.39
WACC
PV UFCF						1,707.80	1,352.90	1,412.16	1,474.02	1,538.58
SUM PV UFCF										7,485.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	11.70
Free cash flow (t + 1)	2,728.89
Terminal Value	28,132.91
Present Value of Terminal Value	16,178.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	23,664.35
Net Debt	-318.07
Equity Value	23,982.42
Shares Outstanding	60.49
Equity Value Per Share	396.48