Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Pangaea Logistics Solutions, Ltd. (PANL)

$8.59

+0.08 (+0.94%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -8.22 | 8.59 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 372.97412.20382.90718.10699.71854.331,043.121,273.631,555.081,898.72
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 55.2351.4440.27102.98139.13123.07150.27183.47224.02273.52
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 37.6132.9123.2180109.6487.04106.27129.76158.43193.44
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 17.6218.5317.0622.9729.4936.0343.9953.7265.5980.08
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 53.6150.5646.9056.21128.38111.17135.74165.73202.36247.08
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 28.4828.3129.1554.2636.7659.6872.8788.97108.63132.63
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 19.222115.9727.1529.1038.2046.6556.9569.5484.91
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 31.9039.9732.4049.1538.5566.7581.5099.51121.50148.35
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -17.54-56.99-2.93-196.65-36.39-88.64-108.23-132.15-161.35-197.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.59
Beta 0.926
Diluted Shares Outstanding 45.06
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 7.04
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.656
Total Debt 299.48
Total Equity 387.06
Total Capital 686.54
Debt Weighting 43.62
Equity Weighting 56.38
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 372.97412.20382.90718.10699.71854.331,043.121,273.631,555.081,898.72
EBITDA 55.2351.4440.27102.98139.13123.07150.27183.47224.02273.52
EBIT 37.6132.9123.2180109.6487.04106.27129.76158.43193.44
Tax Rate 25.96%87.89%80.00%7.11%7.04%41.60%41.60%41.60%41.60%41.60%
EBIAT 27.853.994.6474.31101.9350.8362.0675.7892.53112.97
Depreciation 17.6218.5317.0622.9729.4936.0343.9953.7265.5980.08
Accounts Receivable -0.17-0.84-25.1117.50-22.92-13.19-16.10-19.66-24
Inventories --1.785.03-11.18-1.96-9.10-8.44-10.31-12.59-15.37
Accounts Payable -8.08-7.5716.75-10.6028.2014.7518.0121.9926.85
Capital Expenditure -17.54-56.99-2.93-196.65-36.39-88.64-108.23-132.15-161.35-197.01
UFCF 27.93-28.0115.39-118.9099.97-5.60-9.05-11.05-13.50-16.48
WACC
PV UFCF -5.20-7.79-8.83-10-11.33
SUM PV UFCF -43.14

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.79
Free cash flow (t + 1) -16.56
Terminal Value -227.19
Present Value of Terminal Value -156.13

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -199.28
Net Debt 171.10
Equity Value -370.37
Shares Outstanding 45.06
Equity Value Per Share -8.22