Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

PBF Logistics LP (PBFX)

$19.9

-0.49 (-2.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 38.62 | 19.9 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 254.81283.44340.21360.26355.54387.40422.11459.94501.15546.06
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 156.14155.81185.44245.52231.45235.54256.65279.65304.71332.01
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 132.31126146.84191.81193.64191.57208.73227.44247.82270.03
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 23.8329.8138.6053.7137.8143.9747.9252.2156.8961.99
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 19.6619.9134.9736.2833.9034.5837.6741.0544.7348.74
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 42.2444.5655.4164.6067.2766.2072.1378.5985.6493.31
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 28.1563.0216.684.605.3931.7534.5937.6941.0744.75
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -89.54-100.71-31.75-12.31-8.62-66.51-72.47-78.96-86.04-93.75
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 19.9
Beta 1.271
Diluted Shares Outstanding 62.91
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.48%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.405
Total Debt 622.54
Total Equity 1,251.83
Total Capital 1,874.37
Debt Weighting 33.21
Equity Weighting 66.79
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 254.81283.44340.21360.26355.54387.40422.11459.94501.15546.06
EBITDA 156.14155.81185.44245.52231.45235.54256.65279.65304.71332.01
EBIT 132.31126146.84191.81193.64191.57208.73227.44247.82270.03
Tax Rate 12.55%15.25%7.29%0.00%0.00%7.02%7.02%7.02%7.02%7.02%
EBIAT 115.71106.79136.14191.81193.64178.12194.09211.48230.43251.08
Depreciation 23.8329.8138.6053.7137.8143.9747.9252.2156.8961.99
Accounts Receivable --2.32-10.84-9.19-2.671.08-5.93-6.46-7.04-7.67
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -34.87-46.34-12.080.7926.352.853.103.383.68
Capital Expenditure -89.54-100.71-31.75-12.31-8.62-66.51-72.47-78.96-86.04-93.75
UFCF 5068.4485.81211.94220.95183.02166.44181.36197.61215.32
WACC
PV UFCF 168.79141.57142.26142.96143.66
SUM PV UFCF 739.25

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.43
Free cash flow (t + 1) 219.63
Terminal Value 3,415.68
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,278.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,018.17
Net Debt 588.64
Equity Value 2,429.53
Shares Outstanding 62.91
Equity Value Per Share 38.62