Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

PG&E Corporation (PCG)

$17.14

-0.10 (-0.58%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -47.14 | 17.14 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	16,759	17,129	18,469	20,642	21,680	23,133.92	24,685.33	26,340.79	28,107.27	29,992.22
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	5,607	4,907	5,996	6,021	6,486	7,109.28	7,586.04	8,094.78	8,637.64	9,216.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,571	1,673	2,527	2,618	2,630	2,942.83	3,140.19	3,350.78	3,575.49	3,815.27
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	3,036	3,234	3,469	3,403	3,856	4,166.44	4,445.85	4,744	5,062.15	5,401.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,668	1,570	484	165	734	1,199.45	1,279.89	1,365.73	1,457.31	1,555.05
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	6,292	6,987	6,139	8,483	8,837	8,949.63	9,549.81	10,190.24	10,873.63	11,602.84
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	554	647	628	596	842	798.32	851.86	908.98	969.94	1,034.99
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,975	1,954	2,402	2,853	2,888	2,930.61	3,127.15	3,336.86	3,560.64	3,799.43
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-6,514	-6,313	-7,690	-7,689	-9,584	-9,198.86	-9,815.76	-10,474.03	-11,176.44	-11,925.96
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 17.14
Beta	1.129
Diluted Shares Outstanding	2,132
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-281.09
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.58%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.765
Total Debt	53,539
Total Equity	36,542.48
Total Capital	90,081.48
Debt Weighting	59.43
Equity Weighting	40.57
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	16,759	17,129	18,469	20,642	21,680	23,133.92	24,685.33	26,340.79	28,107.27	29,992.22
EBITDA	5,607	4,907	5,996	6,021	6,486	7,109.28	7,586.04	8,094.78	8,637.64	9,216.90
EBIT	2,571	1,673	2,527	2,618	2,630	2,942.83	3,140.19	3,350.78	3,575.49	3,815.27
Tax Rate	32.50%	30.79%	-38.43%	111.76%	-281.09%	-28.89%	-28.89%	-28.89%	-28.89%	-28.89%
EBIAT	1,735.41	1,157.86	3,498.10	-308	10,022.73	3,793.10	4,047.48	4,318.91	4,608.55	4,917.61
Depreciation	3,036	3,234	3,469	3,403	3,856	4,166.44	4,445.85	4,744	5,062.15	5,401.63
Accounts Receivable	-	-695	848	-2,344	-354	-112.63	-600.18	-640.43	-683.38	-729.21
Inventories	-	-93	19	32	-246	43.68	-53.54	-57.13	-60.96	-65.05
Accounts Payable	-	-21	448	451	35	42.61	196.53	209.71	223.78	238.79
Capital Expenditure	-6,514	-6,313	-7,690	-7,689	-9,584	-9,198.86	-9,815.76	-10,474.03	-11,176.44	-11,925.96
UFCF	-1,742.59	-2,730.14	592.10	-6,455	3,729.73	-1,265.64	-1,779.61	-1,898.96	-2,026.30	-2,162.19
WACC
PV UFCF						-1,192.99	-1,581.16	-1,590.35	-1,599.58	-1,608.88
SUM PV UFCF										-7,572.95

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.09
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-2,205.44
Terminal Value	-53,922.68
Present Value of Terminal Value	-40,123.53

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-47,696.49
Net Debt	52,805
Equity Value	-100,501.49
Shares Outstanding	2,132
Equity Value Per Share	-47.14