Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Patterson Companies, Inc. (PDCO)

$30.3

-0.73 (-2.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 6.83 | 30.3 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,465.685,574.525,490.015,912.076,499.416,793.467,100.837,422.107,757.908,108.90
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 309.82229.42-465.52303.98370.03164.94172.40180.20188.36196.88
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 226.01146.65-547.70225.09288.0468.3271.4174.6478.0281.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 83.8282.7782.1878.9081.9996.62100.99105.56110.34115.33
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 62.9895.6577.94143.24142.01120.87126.34132.05138.03144.27
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 826.88582.09416.52449.24447.16647.23676.51707.12739.11772.55
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 779.83761.02812.19736.78785.60913.90955.25998.471,043.641,090.86
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 610.37648.42862.09609.26681.32805.57842.02880.12919.94961.56
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -43.26-60.73-41.81-25.79-38.31-49.84-52.09-54.45-56.91-59.49
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 30.3
Beta 1.267
Diluted Shares Outstanding 98.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.68
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.63%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.511
Total Debt 590.23
Total Equity 2,984.97
Total Capital 3,575.21
Debt Weighting 16.51
Equity Weighting 83.49
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,465.685,574.525,490.015,912.076,499.416,793.467,100.837,422.107,757.908,108.90
EBITDA 309.82229.42-465.52303.98370.03164.94172.40180.20188.36196.88
EBIT 226.01146.65-547.70225.09288.0468.3271.4174.6478.0281.55
Tax Rate -12.11%21.27%0.33%21.98%23.68%11.03%11.03%11.03%11.03%11.03%
EBIAT 253.38115.45-545.88175.61219.8460.7863.5366.4169.4172.55
Depreciation 83.8282.7782.1878.9081.9996.62100.99105.56110.34115.33
Accounts Receivable -244.78165.57-32.712.07-200.07-29.28-30.61-31.99-33.44
Inventories -18.82-51.1875.42-48.83-128.30-41.35-43.22-45.17-47.22
Accounts Payable -38.05213.68-252.8372.06124.2536.4538.1039.8241.62
Capital Expenditure -43.26-60.73-41.81-25.79-38.31-49.84-52.09-54.45-56.91-59.49
UFCF 293.93439.14-177.4418.59288.82-96.5578.2581.7985.4989.36
WACC
PV UFCF -89.0966.6364.2661.9859.78
SUM PV UFCF 163.57

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.37
Free cash flow (t + 1) 91.14
Terminal Value 1,430.81
Present Value of Terminal Value 957.28

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,120.84
Net Debt 448.22
Equity Value 672.62
Shares Outstanding 98.51
Equity Value Per Share 6.83