Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Precision Drilling Corporation (PDS)
$79.53
-1.61 (-1.98%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,321.22 | 1,541.19 | 1,541.32 | 935.75 | 986.85 | 944.48 | 903.94 | 865.13 | 827.99 | 792.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 275.15 | 164.25 | 439.42 | 309.14 | 190.97 | 212.28 | 203.17 | 194.45 | 186.10 | 178.11 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -102.59 | -201.41 | 105.80 | -7.18 | -91.35 | -45.32 | -43.38 | -41.51 | -39.73 | -38.03 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 377.75 | 365.66 | 333.62 | 316.32 | 282.33 | 257.61 | 246.55 | 235.96 | 225.83 | 216.14 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 65.08 | 96.63 | 74.70 | 108.77 | 40.59 | 60.03 | 57.45 | 54.99 | 52.63 | 50.37 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 299.59 | 312.02 | 245.11 | 130.70 | 255.74 | 186.45 | 178.45 | 170.79 | 163.45 | 156.44 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 24.63 | 34.08 | 31.72 | 26.28 | 23.43 | 21.38 | 20.46 | 19.58 | 18.74 | 17.94 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 87.44 | 129.49 | 91.47 | 56.92 | 224.12 | 93.97 | 89.94 | 86.08 | 82.38 | 78.85 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -98 | -126.14 | -160.69 | -61.59 | -75.94 | -76.14 | -72.87 | -69.74 | -66.75 | -63.88 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 79.53 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 3.251 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 13.31 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 2.95 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.61% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 18.896 |
| Total Debt | 1,165.78 |
| Total Equity | 1,058.94 |
| Total Capital | 2,224.72 |
| Debt Weighting | 52.40 |
| Equity Weighting | 47.60 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,321.22 | 1,541.19 | 1,541.32 | 935.75 | 986.85 | 944.48 | 903.94 | 865.13 | 827.99 | 792.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 275.15 | 164.25 | 439.42 | 309.14 | 190.97 | 212.28 | 203.17 | 194.45 | 186.10 | 178.11 |
| EBIT | -102.59 | -201.41 | 105.80 | -7.18 | -91.35 | -45.32 | -43.38 | -41.51 | -39.73 | -38.03 |
| Tax Rate | 43.10% | 9.06% | 179.36% | -10.03% | 2.95% | 44.89% | 44.89% | 44.89% | 44.89% | 44.89% |
| EBIAT | -58.37 | -183.16 | -83.97 | -7.90 | -88.65 | -24.98 | -23.91 | -22.88 | -21.90 | -20.96 |
| Depreciation | 377.75 | 365.66 | 333.62 | 316.32 | 282.33 | 257.61 | 246.55 | 235.96 | 225.83 | 216.14 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -12.43 | 66.91 | 114.40 | -125.04 | 69.29 | 8 | 7.66 | 7.33 | 7.02 |
| Inventories | - | -9.45 | 2.36 | 5.44 | 2.85 | 2.05 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.80 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 42.06 | -38.02 | -34.55 | 167.20 | -130.15 | -4.03 | -3.86 | -3.70 | -3.54 |
| Capital Expenditure | -98 | -126.14 | -160.69 | -61.59 | -75.94 | -76.14 | -72.87 | -69.74 | -66.75 | -63.88 |
| UFCF | 221.37 | 76.54 | 120.20 | 332.12 | 162.75 | 97.69 | 154.66 | 148.02 | 141.67 | 135.59 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 86.46 | 121.17 | 102.64 | 86.95 | 73.66 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 470.88 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.98 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 138.30 |
| Terminal Value | 1,259.55 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 684.24 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,155.12 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,125.19 |
| Equity Value | 29.93 |
| Shares Outstanding | 13.31 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 2.25 |