Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Penumbra, Inc. (PEN)
$184.24
+1.72 (+0.94%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 333.76 | 444.94 | 547.41 | 560.41 | 747.59 | 919.75 | 1,131.56 | 1,392.14 | 1,712.73 | 2,107.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 4.83 | 8.37 | 59.69 | -21.57 | 8.57 | 21.21 | 26.09 | 32.10 | 39.49 | 48.58 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 1.05 | 2.20 | 51.59 | -34.46 | -7.84 | 5.58 | 6.86 | 8.45 | 10.39 | 12.78 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 3.78 | 6.17 | 8.10 | 12.89 | 16.41 | 15.63 | 19.22 | 23.65 | 29.10 | 35.80 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 214.59 | 200.89 | 189.39 | 264.83 | 254.88 | 414.61 | 510.09 | 627.55 | 772.07 | 949.87 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 58.01 | 81.90 | 105.90 | 114.61 | 133.94 | 171.99 | 211.60 | 260.33 | 320.28 | 394.03 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 94.90 | 115.74 | 152.99 | 219.53 | 263.50 | 288.46 | 354.89 | 436.62 | 537.16 | 660.86 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 6.76 | 8.18 | 15.11 | 14.11 | 13.42 | 20.12 | 24.75 | 30.45 | 37.46 | 46.08 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -15.03 | -9.60 | -22.11 | -24.76 | -21.18 | -33.02 | -40.63 | -49.98 | -61.49 | -75.65 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 184.24 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.666 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 35.77 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 150.31 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.108 |
| Total Debt | 173.55 |
| Total Equity | 6,589.69 |
| Total Capital | 6,763.24 |
| Debt Weighting | 2.57 |
| Equity Weighting | 97.43 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 333.76 | 444.94 | 547.41 | 560.41 | 747.59 | 919.75 | 1,131.56 | 1,392.14 | 1,712.73 | 2,107.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 4.83 | 8.37 | 59.69 | -21.57 | 8.57 | 21.21 | 26.09 | 32.10 | 39.49 | 48.58 |
| EBIT | 1.05 | 2.20 | 51.59 | -34.46 | -7.84 | 5.58 | 6.86 | 8.45 | 10.39 | 12.78 |
| Tax Rate | -88.09% | -310.51% | 3.34% | 58.70% | 150.31% | -37.25% | -37.25% | -37.25% | -37.25% | -37.25% |
| EBIAT | 1.97 | 9.02 | 49.86 | -14.23 | 3.95 | 7.66 | 9.42 | 11.59 | 14.26 | 17.54 |
| Depreciation | 3.78 | 6.17 | 8.10 | 12.89 | 16.41 | 15.63 | 19.22 | 23.65 | 29.10 | 35.80 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -23.89 | -24 | -8.71 | -19.33 | -38.05 | -39.61 | -48.73 | -59.95 | -73.76 |
| Inventories | - | -20.84 | -37.25 | -66.53 | -43.98 | -24.96 | -66.43 | -81.73 | -100.55 | -123.70 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.42 | 6.94 | -1 | -0.69 | 6.69 | 4.63 | 5.70 | 7.01 | 8.63 |
| Capital Expenditure | -15.03 | -9.60 | -22.11 | -24.76 | -21.18 | -33.02 | -40.63 | -49.98 | -61.49 | -75.65 |
| UFCF | -9.28 | -37.72 | -18.46 | -102.34 | -64.82 | -66.05 | -113.38 | -139.50 | -171.62 | -211.14 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | - |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | - |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -215.36 |
| Terminal Value | - |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | - |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | - |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 114.17 |
| Equity Value | - |
| Shares Outstanding | 35.77 |
| Equity Value Per Share | - |