Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Performance Food Group Company (PFGC)
$58.51
-0.74 (-1.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 19,743.50 | 25,086.30 | 30,398.90 | 50,894.10 | 57,254.70 | 75,598.67 | 99,819.90 | 131,801.43 | 174,029.60 | 229,787.35 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 438.70 | 171 | 546 | 812.80 | 1,258.70 | 1,284.46 | 1,695.99 | 2,239.37 | 2,956.84 | 3,904.19 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 283.70 | -105.30 | 207.10 | 350 | 762 | 562.01 | 742.07 | 979.83 | 1,293.75 | 1,708.26 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 155 | 276.30 | 338.90 | 462.80 | 496.70 | 722.45 | 953.91 | 1,259.54 | 1,663.09 | 2,195.93 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 14.70 | 420.70 | 11.10 | 11.60 | 12.70 | 277.14 | 365.93 | 483.17 | 637.98 | 842.38 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,227.30 | 1,415.10 | 1,629.60 | 2,341.40 | 2,441 | 3,943.50 | 5,206.97 | 6,875.24 | 9,078.01 | 11,986.54 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,356.90 | 1,549.40 | 1,839.40 | 3,428.60 | 3,390 | 4,801.64 | 6,340.05 | 8,371.35 | 11,053.47 | 14,594.92 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1,337.70 | 1,718.40 | 1,776.50 | 2,559.50 | 2,453.50 | 4,352.01 | 5,746.36 | 7,587.44 | 10,018.40 | 13,228.22 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -139.10 | -158 | -188.80 | -215.50 | -269.70 | -430.90 | -568.96 | -751.25 | -991.94 | -1,309.75 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 58.51 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.372 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 156.10 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 26.99 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.35% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.096 |
Total Debt | 4,744.40 |
Total Equity | 9,133.41 |
Total Capital | 13,877.81 |
Debt Weighting | 34.19 |
Equity Weighting | 65.81 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 19,743.50 | 25,086.30 | 30,398.90 | 50,894.10 | 57,254.70 | 75,598.67 | 99,819.90 | 131,801.43 | 174,029.60 | 229,787.35 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 438.70 | 171 | 546 | 812.80 | 1,258.70 | 1,284.46 | 1,695.99 | 2,239.37 | 2,956.84 | 3,904.19 |
EBIT | 283.70 | -105.30 | 207.10 | 350 | 762 | 562.01 | 742.07 | 979.83 | 1,293.75 | 1,708.26 |
Tax Rate | 23.59% | 48.65% | 25.59% | 32.68% | 26.99% | 31.50% | 31.50% | 31.50% | 31.50% | 31.50% |
EBIAT | 216.77 | -54.07 | 154.09 | 235.64 | 556.37 | 384.98 | 508.33 | 671.19 | 886.23 | 1,170.17 |
Depreciation | 155 | 276.30 | 338.90 | 462.80 | 496.70 | 722.45 | 953.91 | 1,259.54 | 1,663.09 | 2,195.93 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -187.80 | -214.50 | -711.80 | -99.60 | -1,502.50 | -1,263.47 | -1,668.27 | -2,202.77 | -2,908.53 |
Inventories | - | -192.50 | -290 | -1,589.20 | 38.60 | -1,411.64 | -1,538.41 | -2,031.30 | -2,682.12 | -3,541.45 |
Accounts Payable | - | 380.70 | 58.10 | 783 | -106 | 1,898.51 | 1,394.35 | 1,841.09 | 2,430.96 | 3,209.82 |
Capital Expenditure | -139.10 | -158 | -188.80 | -215.50 | -269.70 | -430.90 | -568.96 | -751.25 | -991.94 | -1,309.75 |
UFCF | 232.67 | 64.63 | -142.21 | -1,035.06 | 616.37 | -339.11 | -514.25 | -679.01 | -896.55 | -1,183.80 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -312.69 | -437.23 | -532.33 | -648.12 | -789.10 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -2,719.47 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.45 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,207.48 |
Terminal Value | -18,720.59 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -12,478.77 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -15,198.25 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 4,731.70 |
Equity Value | -19,929.95 |
Shares Outstanding | 156.10 |
Equity Value Per Share | -127.67 |