Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Performance Food Group Company (PFGC)
$55.44
-0.57 (-1.02%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 17,619.90 | 19,743.50 | 25,086.30 | 30,398.90 | 50,894.10 | 67,143.50 | 88,581 | 116,863.03 | 154,174.91 | 203,399.68 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 384.10 | 438.70 | 171 | 546 | 812.80 | 1,138.31 | 1,501.75 | 1,981.23 | 2,613.80 | 3,448.33 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 254 | 283.70 | -105.30 | 207.10 | 350 | 514.01 | 678.12 | 894.63 | 1,180.27 | 1,557.11 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 130.10 | 155 | 276.30 | 338.90 | 462.80 | 624.30 | 823.63 | 1,086.60 | 1,433.52 | 1,891.22 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 7.50 | 14.70 | 420.70 | 11.10 | 11.60 | 248.88 | 328.34 | 433.17 | 571.48 | 753.94 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,065.60 | 1,227.30 | 1,415.10 | 1,629.60 | 2,341.40 | 3,742.06 | 4,936.82 | 6,513.04 | 8,592.51 | 11,335.92 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,051.90 | 1,356.90 | 1,549.40 | 1,839.40 | 3,428.60 | 4,271.20 | 5,634.90 | 7,434 | 9,807.52 | 12,938.86 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 973 | 1,130.80 | 1,608 | 1,776.50 | 2,559.50 | 3,831.55 | 5,054.88 | 6,668.79 | 8,798 | 11,607.01 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -140.10 | -139.10 | -158 | -188.80 | -215.50 | -426.23 | -562.31 | -741.84 | -978.70 | -1,291.18 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 55.44 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.361 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 151.30 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 32.68 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.46% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.160 |
Total Debt | 4,997.20 |
Total Equity | 8,388.07 |
Total Capital | 13,385.27 |
Debt Weighting | 37.33 |
Equity Weighting | 62.67 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 17,619.90 | 19,743.50 | 25,086.30 | 30,398.90 | 50,894.10 | 67,143.50 | 88,581 | 116,863.03 | 154,174.91 | 203,399.68 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 384.10 | 438.70 | 171 | 546 | 812.80 | 1,138.31 | 1,501.75 | 1,981.23 | 2,613.80 | 3,448.33 |
EBIT | 254 | 283.70 | -105.30 | 207.10 | 350 | 514.01 | 678.12 | 894.63 | 1,180.27 | 1,557.11 |
Tax Rate | -2.63% | 23.59% | 48.65% | 25.59% | 32.68% | 25.58% | 25.58% | 25.58% | 25.58% | 25.58% |
EBIAT | 260.69 | 216.77 | -54.07 | 154.09 | 235.64 | 382.55 | 504.69 | 665.83 | 878.41 | 1,158.87 |
Depreciation | 130.10 | 155 | 276.30 | 338.90 | 462.80 | 624.30 | 823.63 | 1,086.60 | 1,433.52 | 1,891.22 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -161.70 | -187.80 | -214.50 | -711.80 | -1,400.66 | -1,194.76 | -1,576.22 | -2,079.47 | -2,743.41 |
Inventories | - | -305 | -192.50 | -290 | -1,589.20 | -842.60 | -1,363.70 | -1,799.10 | -2,373.52 | -3,131.33 |
Accounts Payable | - | 157.80 | 477.20 | 168.50 | 783 | 1,272.05 | 1,223.33 | 1,613.92 | 2,129.20 | 2,809.01 |
Capital Expenditure | -140.10 | -139.10 | -158 | -188.80 | -215.50 | -426.23 | -562.31 | -741.84 | -978.70 | -1,291.18 |
UFCF | 250.69 | -76.23 | 161.13 | -31.81 | -1,035.06 | -390.58 | -569.12 | -750.83 | -990.55 | -1,306.81 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -364.04 | -494.41 | -607.94 | -747.55 | -919.21 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -3,133.15 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.29 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,332.95 |
Terminal Value | -25,197.48 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -17,723.96 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -20,857.11 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 4,985.60 |
Equity Value | -25,842.71 |
Shares Outstanding | 151.30 |
Equity Value Per Share | -170.80 |