Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Performance Food Group Company (PFGC)

$55.44

-0.57 (-1.02%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -170.80 | 55.44 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	17,619.90	19,743.50	25,086.30	30,398.90	50,894.10	67,143.50	88,581	116,863.03	154,174.91	203,399.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	384.10	438.70	171	546	812.80	1,138.31	1,501.75	1,981.23	2,613.80	3,448.33
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	254	283.70	-105.30	207.10	350	514.01	678.12	894.63	1,180.27	1,557.11
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	130.10	155	276.30	338.90	462.80	624.30	823.63	1,086.60	1,433.52	1,891.22
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	7.50	14.70	420.70	11.10	11.60	248.88	328.34	433.17	571.48	753.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,065.60	1,227.30	1,415.10	1,629.60	2,341.40	3,742.06	4,936.82	6,513.04	8,592.51	11,335.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,051.90	1,356.90	1,549.40	1,839.40	3,428.60	4,271.20	5,634.90	7,434	9,807.52	12,938.86
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	973	1,130.80	1,608	1,776.50	2,559.50	3,831.55	5,054.88	6,668.79	8,798	11,607.01
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-140.10	-139.10	-158	-188.80	-215.50	-426.23	-562.31	-741.84	-978.70	-1,291.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 55.44
Beta	1.361
Diluted Shares Outstanding	151.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	32.68
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.46%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.160
Total Debt	4,997.20
Total Equity	8,388.07
Total Capital	13,385.27
Debt Weighting	37.33
Equity Weighting	62.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	17,619.90	19,743.50	25,086.30	30,398.90	50,894.10	67,143.50	88,581	116,863.03	154,174.91	203,399.68
EBITDA	384.10	438.70	171	546	812.80	1,138.31	1,501.75	1,981.23	2,613.80	3,448.33
EBIT	254	283.70	-105.30	207.10	350	514.01	678.12	894.63	1,180.27	1,557.11
Tax Rate	-2.63%	23.59%	48.65%	25.59%	32.68%	25.58%	25.58%	25.58%	25.58%	25.58%
EBIAT	260.69	216.77	-54.07	154.09	235.64	382.55	504.69	665.83	878.41	1,158.87
Depreciation	130.10	155	276.30	338.90	462.80	624.30	823.63	1,086.60	1,433.52	1,891.22
Accounts Receivable	-	-161.70	-187.80	-214.50	-711.80	-1,400.66	-1,194.76	-1,576.22	-2,079.47	-2,743.41
Inventories	-	-305	-192.50	-290	-1,589.20	-842.60	-1,363.70	-1,799.10	-2,373.52	-3,131.33
Accounts Payable	-	157.80	477.20	168.50	783	1,272.05	1,223.33	1,613.92	2,129.20	2,809.01
Capital Expenditure	-140.10	-139.10	-158	-188.80	-215.50	-426.23	-562.31	-741.84	-978.70	-1,291.18
UFCF	250.69	-76.23	161.13	-31.81	-1,035.06	-390.58	-569.12	-750.83	-990.55	-1,306.81
WACC
PV UFCF						-364.04	-494.41	-607.94	-747.55	-919.21
SUM PV UFCF										-3,133.15

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.29
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-1,332.95
Terminal Value	-25,197.48
Present Value of Terminal Value	-17,723.96

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-20,857.11
Net Debt	4,985.60
Equity Value	-25,842.71
Shares Outstanding	151.30
Equity Value Per Share	-170.80