Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Performance Food Group Company (PFGC)

$58.51

-0.74 (-1.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -127.67 | 58.51 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 19,743.5025,086.3030,398.9050,894.1057,254.7075,598.6799,819.90131,801.43174,029.60229,787.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 438.70171546812.801,258.701,284.461,695.992,239.372,956.843,904.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 283.70-105.30207.10350762562.01742.07979.831,293.751,708.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 155276.30338.90462.80496.70722.45953.911,259.541,663.092,195.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 14.70420.7011.1011.6012.70277.14365.93483.17637.98842.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,227.301,415.101,629.602,341.402,4413,943.505,206.976,875.249,078.0111,986.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,356.901,549.401,839.403,428.603,3904,801.646,340.058,371.3511,053.4714,594.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,337.701,718.401,776.502,559.502,453.504,352.015,746.367,587.4410,018.4013,228.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -139.10-158-188.80-215.50-269.70-430.90-568.96-751.25-991.94-1,309.75
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 58.51
Beta 1.372
Diluted Shares Outstanding 156.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.99
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.35%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.096
Total Debt 4,744.40
Total Equity 9,133.41
Total Capital 13,877.81
Debt Weighting 34.19
Equity Weighting 65.81
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 19,743.5025,086.3030,398.9050,894.1057,254.7075,598.6799,819.90131,801.43174,029.60229,787.35
EBITDA 438.70171546812.801,258.701,284.461,695.992,239.372,956.843,904.19
EBIT 283.70-105.30207.10350762562.01742.07979.831,293.751,708.26
Tax Rate 23.59%48.65%25.59%32.68%26.99%31.50%31.50%31.50%31.50%31.50%
EBIAT 216.77-54.07154.09235.64556.37384.98508.33671.19886.231,170.17
Depreciation 155276.30338.90462.80496.70722.45953.911,259.541,663.092,195.93
Accounts Receivable --187.80-214.50-711.80-99.60-1,502.50-1,263.47-1,668.27-2,202.77-2,908.53
Inventories --192.50-290-1,589.2038.60-1,411.64-1,538.41-2,031.30-2,682.12-3,541.45
Accounts Payable -380.7058.10783-1061,898.511,394.351,841.092,430.963,209.82
Capital Expenditure -139.10-158-188.80-215.50-269.70-430.90-568.96-751.25-991.94-1,309.75
UFCF 232.6764.63-142.21-1,035.06616.37-339.11-514.25-679.01-896.55-1,183.80
WACC
PV UFCF -312.69-437.23-532.33-648.12-789.10
SUM PV UFCF -2,719.47

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.45
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,207.48
Terminal Value -18,720.59
Present Value of Terminal Value -12,478.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -15,198.25
Net Debt 4,731.70
Equity Value -19,929.95
Shares Outstanding 156.10
Equity Value Per Share -127.67