Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Performance Food Group Company (PFGC)

$58.51

-0.74 (-1.25%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -127.67 | 58.51 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	19,743.50	25,086.30	30,398.90	50,894.10	57,254.70	75,598.67	99,819.90	131,801.43	174,029.60	229,787.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	438.70	171	546	812.80	1,258.70	1,284.46	1,695.99	2,239.37	2,956.84	3,904.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	283.70	-105.30	207.10	350	762	562.01	742.07	979.83	1,293.75	1,708.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	155	276.30	338.90	462.80	496.70	722.45	953.91	1,259.54	1,663.09	2,195.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	14.70	420.70	11.10	11.60	12.70	277.14	365.93	483.17	637.98	842.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,227.30	1,415.10	1,629.60	2,341.40	2,441	3,943.50	5,206.97	6,875.24	9,078.01	11,986.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,356.90	1,549.40	1,839.40	3,428.60	3,390	4,801.64	6,340.05	8,371.35	11,053.47	14,594.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,337.70	1,718.40	1,776.50	2,559.50	2,453.50	4,352.01	5,746.36	7,587.44	10,018.40	13,228.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-139.10	-158	-188.80	-215.50	-269.70	-430.90	-568.96	-751.25	-991.94	-1,309.75
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 58.51
Beta	1.372
Diluted Shares Outstanding	156.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	26.99
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.35%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.096
Total Debt	4,744.40
Total Equity	9,133.41
Total Capital	13,877.81
Debt Weighting	34.19
Equity Weighting	65.81
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	19,743.50	25,086.30	30,398.90	50,894.10	57,254.70	75,598.67	99,819.90	131,801.43	174,029.60	229,787.35
EBITDA	438.70	171	546	812.80	1,258.70	1,284.46	1,695.99	2,239.37	2,956.84	3,904.19
EBIT	283.70	-105.30	207.10	350	762	562.01	742.07	979.83	1,293.75	1,708.26
Tax Rate	23.59%	48.65%	25.59%	32.68%	26.99%	31.50%	31.50%	31.50%	31.50%	31.50%
EBIAT	216.77	-54.07	154.09	235.64	556.37	384.98	508.33	671.19	886.23	1,170.17
Depreciation	155	276.30	338.90	462.80	496.70	722.45	953.91	1,259.54	1,663.09	2,195.93
Accounts Receivable	-	-187.80	-214.50	-711.80	-99.60	-1,502.50	-1,263.47	-1,668.27	-2,202.77	-2,908.53
Inventories	-	-192.50	-290	-1,589.20	38.60	-1,411.64	-1,538.41	-2,031.30	-2,682.12	-3,541.45
Accounts Payable	-	380.70	58.10	783	-106	1,898.51	1,394.35	1,841.09	2,430.96	3,209.82
Capital Expenditure	-139.10	-158	-188.80	-215.50	-269.70	-430.90	-568.96	-751.25	-991.94	-1,309.75
UFCF	232.67	64.63	-142.21	-1,035.06	616.37	-339.11	-514.25	-679.01	-896.55	-1,183.80
WACC
PV UFCF						-312.69	-437.23	-532.33	-648.12	-789.10
SUM PV UFCF										-2,719.47

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.45
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-1,207.48
Terminal Value	-18,720.59
Present Value of Terminal Value	-12,478.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-15,198.25
Net Debt	4,731.70
Equity Value	-19,929.95
Shares Outstanding	156.10
Equity Value Per Share	-127.67