Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Performance Food Group Company (PFGC)

$55.44

-0.57 (-1.02%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -170.80 | 55.44 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 17,619.9019,743.5025,086.3030,398.9050,894.1067,143.5088,581116,863.03154,174.91203,399.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 384.10438.70171546812.801,138.311,501.751,981.232,613.803,448.33
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 254283.70-105.30207.10350514.01678.12894.631,180.271,557.11
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 130.10155276.30338.90462.80624.30823.631,086.601,433.521,891.22
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 7.5014.70420.7011.1011.60248.88328.34433.17571.48753.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,065.601,227.301,415.101,629.602,341.403,742.064,936.826,513.048,592.5111,335.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,051.901,356.901,549.401,839.403,428.604,271.205,634.907,4349,807.5212,938.86
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9731,130.801,6081,776.502,559.503,831.555,054.886,668.798,79811,607.01
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -140.10-139.10-158-188.80-215.50-426.23-562.31-741.84-978.70-1,291.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 55.44
Beta 1.361
Diluted Shares Outstanding 151.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 32.68
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.46%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.160
Total Debt 4,997.20
Total Equity 8,388.07
Total Capital 13,385.27
Debt Weighting 37.33
Equity Weighting 62.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 17,619.9019,743.5025,086.3030,398.9050,894.1067,143.5088,581116,863.03154,174.91203,399.68
EBITDA 384.10438.70171546812.801,138.311,501.751,981.232,613.803,448.33
EBIT 254283.70-105.30207.10350514.01678.12894.631,180.271,557.11
Tax Rate -2.63%23.59%48.65%25.59%32.68%25.58%25.58%25.58%25.58%25.58%
EBIAT 260.69216.77-54.07154.09235.64382.55504.69665.83878.411,158.87
Depreciation 130.10155276.30338.90462.80624.30823.631,086.601,433.521,891.22
Accounts Receivable --161.70-187.80-214.50-711.80-1,400.66-1,194.76-1,576.22-2,079.47-2,743.41
Inventories --305-192.50-290-1,589.20-842.60-1,363.70-1,799.10-2,373.52-3,131.33
Accounts Payable -157.80477.20168.507831,272.051,223.331,613.922,129.202,809.01
Capital Expenditure -140.10-139.10-158-188.80-215.50-426.23-562.31-741.84-978.70-1,291.18
UFCF 250.69-76.23161.13-31.81-1,035.06-390.58-569.12-750.83-990.55-1,306.81
WACC
PV UFCF -364.04-494.41-607.94-747.55-919.21
SUM PV UFCF -3,133.15

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.29
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,332.95
Terminal Value -25,197.48
Present Value of Terminal Value -17,723.96

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -20,857.11
Net Debt 4,985.60
Equity Value -25,842.71
Shares Outstanding 151.30
Equity Value Per Share -170.80