Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
The Procter & Gamble Company (PG)
$146.11
+2.32 (+1.61%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 65,058 | 66,832 | 67,684 | 70,950 | 76,118 | 79,183.84 | 82,373.17 | 85,690.96 | 89,142.38 | 92,732.81 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 21,674 | 16,555 | 9,333 | 19,236 | 20,806 | 20,005.16 | 20,810.92 | 21,649.13 | 22,521.10 | 23,428.19 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 18,854 | 13,721 | 6,509 | 16,223 | 18,071 | 16,744.82 | 17,419.26 | 18,120.86 | 18,850.72 | 19,609.98 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 2,820 | 2,834 | 2,824 | 3,013 | 2,735 | 3,260.34 | 3,391.66 | 3,528.27 | 3,670.38 | 3,818.21 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 15,137 | 11,850 | 10,287 | 16,181 | 10,288 | 14,651.95 | 15,242.10 | 15,856.01 | 16,494.65 | 17,159.02 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 4,594 | 4,686 | 4,951 | 4,178 | 4,725 | 5,302.78 | 5,516.37 | 5,738.55 | 5,969.69 | 6,210.13 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 4,624 | 4,738 | 5,017 | 5,498 | 5,983 | 5,894.22 | 6,131.63 | 6,378.59 | 6,635.51 | 6,902.77 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 9,632 | 10,344 | 11,260 | 12,071 | 13,720 | 12,979.35 | 13,502.12 | 14,045.95 | 14,611.69 | 15,200.21 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -3,384 | -3,717 | -3,347 | -3,073 | -2,787 | -3,753.46 | -3,904.64 | -4,061.91 | -4,225.51 | -4,395.70 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 146.11 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.386 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,601 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 18.79 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.25% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 4.711 |
Total Debt | 32,619 |
Total Equity | 380,032.11 |
Total Capital | 412,651.11 |
Debt Weighting | 7.90 |
Equity Weighting | 92.10 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 65,058 | 66,832 | 67,684 | 70,950 | 76,118 | 79,183.84 | 82,373.17 | 85,690.96 | 89,142.38 | 92,732.81 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 21,674 | 16,555 | 9,333 | 19,236 | 20,806 | 20,005.16 | 20,810.92 | 21,649.13 | 22,521.10 | 23,428.19 |
EBIT | 18,854 | 13,721 | 6,509 | 16,223 | 18,071 | 16,744.82 | 17,419.26 | 18,120.86 | 18,850.72 | 19,609.98 |
Tax Rate | -15.61% | 26.83% | 35.79% | 17.73% | 18.79% | 16.71% | 16.71% | 16.71% | 16.71% | 16.71% |
EBIAT | 21,796.51 | 10,039 | 4,179.53 | 13,347.04 | 14,676.34 | 13,947.46 | 14,509.23 | 15,093.62 | 15,701.55 | 16,333.97 |
Depreciation | 2,820 | 2,834 | 2,824 | 3,013 | 2,735 | 3,260.34 | 3,391.66 | 3,528.27 | 3,670.38 | 3,818.21 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -92 | -265 | 773 | -547 | -577.78 | -213.58 | -222.19 | -231.13 | -240.44 |
Inventories | - | -114 | -279 | -481 | -485 | 88.78 | -237.40 | -246.97 | -256.91 | -267.26 |
Accounts Payable | - | 712 | 916 | 811 | 1,649 | -740.65 | 522.78 | 543.83 | 565.74 | 588.52 |
Capital Expenditure | -3,384 | -3,717 | -3,347 | -3,073 | -2,787 | -3,753.46 | -3,904.64 | -4,061.91 | -4,225.51 | -4,395.70 |
UFCF | 21,232.52 | 9,662 | 4,028.53 | 14,390.04 | 15,241.34 | 12,224.68 | 14,068.04 | 14,634.66 | 15,224.11 | 15,837.30 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 11,704.98 | 12,897.33 | 12,846.42 | 12,795.71 | 12,745.20 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 62,989.64 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 4.44 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 16,154.05 |
Terminal Value | 662,051.03 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 532,791.33 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 595,780.98 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 22,331 |
Equity Value | 573,449.98 |
Shares Outstanding | 2,601 |
Equity Value Per Share | 220.47 |