Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Procter & Gamble Company (PG)

$146.11

+2.32 (+1.61%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 220.47 | 146.11 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	65,058	66,832	67,684	70,950	76,118	79,183.84	82,373.17	85,690.96	89,142.38	92,732.81
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	21,674	16,555	9,333	19,236	20,806	20,005.16	20,810.92	21,649.13	22,521.10	23,428.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	18,854	13,721	6,509	16,223	18,071	16,744.82	17,419.26	18,120.86	18,850.72	19,609.98
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	2,820	2,834	2,824	3,013	2,735	3,260.34	3,391.66	3,528.27	3,670.38	3,818.21
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	15,137	11,850	10,287	16,181	10,288	14,651.95	15,242.10	15,856.01	16,494.65	17,159.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	4,594	4,686	4,951	4,178	4,725	5,302.78	5,516.37	5,738.55	5,969.69	6,210.13
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	4,624	4,738	5,017	5,498	5,983	5,894.22	6,131.63	6,378.59	6,635.51	6,902.77
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	9,632	10,344	11,260	12,071	13,720	12,979.35	13,502.12	14,045.95	14,611.69	15,200.21
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-3,384	-3,717	-3,347	-3,073	-2,787	-3,753.46	-3,904.64	-4,061.91	-4,225.51	-4,395.70
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 146.11
Beta	0.386
Diluted Shares Outstanding	2,601
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	18.79
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	4.711
Total Debt	32,619
Total Equity	380,032.11
Total Capital	412,651.11
Debt Weighting	7.90
Equity Weighting	92.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	65,058	66,832	67,684	70,950	76,118	79,183.84	82,373.17	85,690.96	89,142.38	92,732.81
EBITDA	21,674	16,555	9,333	19,236	20,806	20,005.16	20,810.92	21,649.13	22,521.10	23,428.19
EBIT	18,854	13,721	6,509	16,223	18,071	16,744.82	17,419.26	18,120.86	18,850.72	19,609.98
Tax Rate	-15.61%	26.83%	35.79%	17.73%	18.79%	16.71%	16.71%	16.71%	16.71%	16.71%
EBIAT	21,796.51	10,039	4,179.53	13,347.04	14,676.34	13,947.46	14,509.23	15,093.62	15,701.55	16,333.97
Depreciation	2,820	2,834	2,824	3,013	2,735	3,260.34	3,391.66	3,528.27	3,670.38	3,818.21
Accounts Receivable	-	-92	-265	773	-547	-577.78	-213.58	-222.19	-231.13	-240.44
Inventories	-	-114	-279	-481	-485	88.78	-237.40	-246.97	-256.91	-267.26
Accounts Payable	-	712	916	811	1,649	-740.65	522.78	543.83	565.74	588.52
Capital Expenditure	-3,384	-3,717	-3,347	-3,073	-2,787	-3,753.46	-3,904.64	-4,061.91	-4,225.51	-4,395.70
UFCF	21,232.52	9,662	4,028.53	14,390.04	15,241.34	12,224.68	14,068.04	14,634.66	15,224.11	15,837.30
WACC
PV UFCF						11,704.98	12,897.33	12,846.42	12,795.71	12,745.20
SUM PV UFCF										62,989.64

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.44
Free cash flow (t + 1)	16,154.05
Terminal Value	662,051.03
Present Value of Terminal Value	532,791.33

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	595,780.98
Net Debt	22,331
Equity Value	573,449.98
Shares Outstanding	2,601
Equity Value Per Share	220.47