Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Procter & Gamble Company (PG)

$151.58

-0.56 (-0.37%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 160.17 | 151.58 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 67,68470,95076,11880,18782,00686,049.6190,292.6094,744.8099,416.54104,318.64
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 17,74719,31220,85221,24121,82323,050.0524,186.6125,379.2226,630.6427,943.76
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 14,92316,29918,11718,43419,10919,810.7720,787.6121,812.6222,888.1724,016.75
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,8243,0132,7352,8072,7143,239.283,399.013,566.613,742.473,927.01
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 10,28716,18110,2887,2148,24612,145.4612,744.3413,372.7514,032.1414,724.05
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4,9514,1784,7255,1435,4715,592.575,868.346,157.706,461.326,779.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5,0175,4985,9836,9247,0736,932.417,274.247,632.928,009.298,404.22
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 11,26012,07113,72014,88214,59815,150.6515,897.7116,681.6117,504.1618,367.26
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,347-3,073-2,787-3,156-3,062-3,546.51-3,721.38-3,904.88-4,097.42-4,299.46
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 151.58
Beta 0.410
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,483.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.16
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.74%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.375
Total Debt 34,607
Total Equity 376,509.56
Total Capital 411,116.56
Debt Weighting 8.42
Equity Weighting 91.58
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 67,68470,95076,11880,18782,00686,049.6190,292.6094,744.8099,416.54104,318.64
EBITDA 17,74719,31220,85221,24121,82323,050.0524,186.6125,379.2226,630.6427,943.76
EBIT 14,92316,29918,11718,43419,10919,810.7720,787.6121,812.6222,888.1724,016.75
Tax Rate 35.79%17.73%18.79%18.08%20.16%22.11%22.11%22.11%22.11%22.11%
EBIAT 9,582.2913,409.5714,713.7015,101.6415,256.5915,431.0616,191.9416,990.3417,828.1118,707.19
Depreciation 2,8243,0132,7352,8072,7143,239.283,399.013,566.613,742.473,927.01
Accounts Receivable -773-547-418-328-121.57-275.76-289.36-303.63-318.60
Inventories --481-485-941-149140.59-341.83-358.68-376.37-394.93
Accounts Payable -8111,6491,162-284552.65747.06783.89822.55863.11
Capital Expenditure -3,347-3,073-2,787-3,156-3,062-3,546.51-3,721.38-3,904.88-4,097.42-4,299.46
UFCF 9,059.2914,452.5715,278.7014,555.6414,147.5915,695.5015,999.0316,787.9217,615.7118,484.32
WACC
PV UFCF 14,808.4714,241.7714,099.4513,958.5613,819.08
SUM PV UFCF 70,927.33

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.99
Free cash flow (t + 1) 18,854.01
Terminal Value 472,531.48
Present Value of Terminal Value 353,269.61

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 424,196.95
Net Debt 26,361
Equity Value 397,835.95
Shares Outstanding 2,483.90
Equity Value Per Share 160.17