Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Procter & Gamble Company (PG)

$146.11

+2.32 (+1.61%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 220.47 | 146.11 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 65,05866,83267,68470,95076,11879,183.8482,373.1785,690.9689,142.3892,732.81
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 21,67416,5559,33319,23620,80620,005.1620,810.9221,649.1322,521.1023,428.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 18,85413,7216,50916,22318,07116,744.8217,419.2618,120.8618,850.7219,609.98
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,8202,8342,8243,0132,7353,260.343,391.663,528.273,670.383,818.21
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 15,13711,85010,28716,18110,28814,651.9515,242.1015,856.0116,494.6517,159.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4,5944,6864,9514,1784,7255,302.785,516.375,738.555,969.696,210.13
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 4,6244,7385,0175,4985,9835,894.226,131.636,378.596,635.516,902.77
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9,63210,34411,26012,07113,72012,979.3513,502.1214,045.9514,611.6915,200.21
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,384-3,717-3,347-3,073-2,787-3,753.46-3,904.64-4,061.91-4,225.51-4,395.70
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 146.11
Beta 0.386
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,601
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.79
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.711
Total Debt 32,619
Total Equity 380,032.11
Total Capital 412,651.11
Debt Weighting 7.90
Equity Weighting 92.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 65,05866,83267,68470,95076,11879,183.8482,373.1785,690.9689,142.3892,732.81
EBITDA 21,67416,5559,33319,23620,80620,005.1620,810.9221,649.1322,521.1023,428.19
EBIT 18,85413,7216,50916,22318,07116,744.8217,419.2618,120.8618,850.7219,609.98
Tax Rate -15.61%26.83%35.79%17.73%18.79%16.71%16.71%16.71%16.71%16.71%
EBIAT 21,796.5110,0394,179.5313,347.0414,676.3413,947.4614,509.2315,093.6215,701.5516,333.97
Depreciation 2,8202,8342,8243,0132,7353,260.343,391.663,528.273,670.383,818.21
Accounts Receivable --92-265773-547-577.78-213.58-222.19-231.13-240.44
Inventories --114-279-481-48588.78-237.40-246.97-256.91-267.26
Accounts Payable -7129168111,649-740.65522.78543.83565.74588.52
Capital Expenditure -3,384-3,717-3,347-3,073-2,787-3,753.46-3,904.64-4,061.91-4,225.51-4,395.70
UFCF 21,232.529,6624,028.5314,390.0415,241.3412,224.6814,068.0414,634.6615,224.1115,837.30
WACC
PV UFCF 11,704.9812,897.3312,846.4212,795.7112,745.20
SUM PV UFCF 62,989.64

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.44
Free cash flow (t + 1) 16,154.05
Terminal Value 662,051.03
Present Value of Terminal Value 532,791.33

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 595,780.98
Net Debt 22,331
Equity Value 573,449.98
Shares Outstanding 2,601
Equity Value Per Share 220.47