Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Parkland Corporation (PKI.TO)
$33.75
-0.13 (-0.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 9,560.50 | 14,442 | 18,453 | 14,011 | 21,468 | 27,263.43 | 34,623.38 | 43,970.20 | 55,840.25 | 70,914.70 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 315 | 708 | 1,321 | 966 | 972 | 1,460.13 | 1,854.30 | 2,354.88 | 2,990.60 | 3,797.93 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 149.40 | 407 | 741 | 357 | 356 | 687.19 | 872.70 | 1,108.29 | 1,407.48 | 1,787.44 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 165.60 | 301 | 580 | 609 | 616 | 772.94 | 981.60 | 1,246.59 | 1,583.12 | 2,010.49 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 22.50 | 40 | 244 | 262 | 284 | 274.13 | 348.13 | 442.12 | 561.47 | 713.04 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 705.10 | 665 | 1,083 | 826 | 1,399 | 1,650.02 | 2,095.46 | 2,661.14 | 3,379.54 | 4,291.87 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 398.60 | 389 | 780 | 650 | 1,265 | 1,178.95 | 1,497.21 | 1,901.40 | 2,414.69 | 3,066.55 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 941.90 | 806 | 1,358 | 1,212 | 1,950 | 2,209.75 | 2,806.28 | 3,563.86 | 4,525.94 | 5,747.75 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -91.30 | -285 | -489 | -345 | -396 | -539.02 | -684.53 | -869.32 | -1,104 | -1,402.03 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 33.75 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.570 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 149.07 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 40.12 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.40% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.259 |
Total Debt | 5,556 |
Total Equity | 5,031.25 |
Total Capital | 10,587.25 |
Debt Weighting | 52.48 |
Equity Weighting | 47.52 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 9,560.50 | 14,442 | 18,453 | 14,011 | 21,468 | 27,263.43 | 34,623.38 | 43,970.20 | 55,840.25 | 70,914.70 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 315 | 708 | 1,321 | 966 | 972 | 1,460.13 | 1,854.30 | 2,354.88 | 2,990.60 | 3,797.93 |
EBIT | 149.40 | 407 | 741 | 357 | 356 | 687.19 | 872.70 | 1,108.29 | 1,407.48 | 1,787.44 |
Tax Rate | -20.32% | 25.63% | 30.16% | 46.75% | 40.12% | 24.47% | 24.47% | 24.47% | 24.47% | 24.47% |
EBIAT | 179.76 | 302.68 | 517.48 | 190.09 | 213.16 | 519.03 | 659.15 | 837.09 | 1,063.07 | 1,350.05 |
Depreciation | 165.60 | 301 | 580 | 609 | 616 | 772.94 | 981.60 | 1,246.59 | 1,583.12 | 2,010.49 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 40.10 | -418 | 257 | -573 | -251.02 | -445.44 | -565.68 | -718.39 | -912.33 |
Inventories | - | 9.60 | -391 | 130 | -615 | 86.05 | -318.27 | -404.18 | -513.29 | -651.86 |
Accounts Payable | - | -135.90 | 552 | -146 | 738 | 259.75 | 596.54 | 757.57 | 962.09 | 1,221.81 |
Capital Expenditure | -91.30 | -285 | -489 | -345 | -396 | -539.02 | -684.53 | -869.32 | -1,104 | -1,402.03 |
UFCF | 254.06 | 232.48 | 351.48 | 695.09 | -16.84 | 847.73 | 789.06 | 1,002.07 | 1,272.58 | 1,616.13 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 798.69 | 700.41 | 838.03 | 1,002.70 | 1,199.72 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 4,539.55 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.14 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,648.45 |
Terminal Value | 39,817.64 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 29,558.34 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 34,097.89 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 5,272 |
Equity Value | 28,825.89 |
Shares Outstanding | 149.07 |
Equity Value Per Share | 193.37 |