Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Parkland Corporation (PKI.TO)
$39.41
+0.52 (+1.34%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 14,442 | 18,453 | 14,011 | 21,468 | 35,462 | 46,287.58 | 60,417.91 | 78,861.84 | 102,936.21 | 134,359.82 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 892 | 1,335 | 1,003 | 1,404 | 1,993 | 3,029.96 | 3,954.93 | 5,162.26 | 6,738.15 | 8,795.13 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 591 | 755 | 394 | 788 | 1,250 | 1,684.06 | 2,198.16 | 2,869.19 | 3,745.08 | 4,888.35 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 301 | 580 | 609 | 616 | 743 | 1,345.90 | 1,756.77 | 2,293.06 | 2,993.07 | 3,906.78 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 40 | 244 | 262 | 284 | 653 | 614.10 | 801.57 | 1,046.26 | 1,365.66 | 1,782.56 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 665 | 1,083 | 826 | 1,399 | 1,886 | 2,610.99 | 3,408.05 | 4,448.44 | 5,806.43 | 7,578.97 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 389 | 780 | 650 | 1,265 | 1,745 | 2,071.18 | 2,703.45 | 3,528.74 | 4,605.97 | 6,012.05 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 806 | 1,358 | 1,212 | 1,950 | 2,806 | 3,572.15 | 4,662.63 | 6,086.01 | 7,943.90 | 10,368.95 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -285 | -489 | -345 | -396 | -503 | -958.04 | -1,250.50 | -1,632.25 | -2,130.53 | -2,780.92 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 39.41 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.405 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 152.47 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 25.48 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.15% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.111 |
Total Debt | 6,972 |
Total Equity | 6,008.84 |
Total Capital | 12,980.84 |
Debt Weighting | 53.71 |
Equity Weighting | 46.29 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 14,442 | 18,453 | 14,011 | 21,468 | 35,462 | 46,287.58 | 60,417.91 | 78,861.84 | 102,936.21 | 134,359.82 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 892 | 1,335 | 1,003 | 1,404 | 1,993 | 3,029.96 | 3,954.93 | 5,162.26 | 6,738.15 | 8,795.13 |
EBIT | 591 | 755 | 394 | 788 | 1,250 | 1,684.06 | 2,198.16 | 2,869.19 | 3,745.08 | 4,888.35 |
Tax Rate | 25.63% | 30.16% | 27.27% | 40.12% | 25.48% | 29.73% | 29.73% | 29.73% | 29.73% | 29.73% |
EBIAT | 439.52 | 527.26 | 286.55 | 471.83 | 931.49 | 1,183.31 | 1,544.54 | 2,016.05 | 2,631.49 | 3,434.82 |
Depreciation | 301 | 580 | 609 | 616 | 743 | 1,345.90 | 1,756.77 | 2,293.06 | 2,993.07 | 3,906.78 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -418 | 257 | -573 | -487 | -724.99 | -797.06 | -1,040.39 | -1,357.99 | -1,772.54 |
Inventories | - | -391 | 130 | -615 | -480 | -326.18 | -632.27 | -825.29 | -1,077.23 | -1,406.08 |
Accounts Payable | - | 552 | -146 | 738 | 856 | 766.15 | 1,090.48 | 1,423.37 | 1,857.89 | 2,425.05 |
Capital Expenditure | -285 | -489 | -345 | -396 | -503 | -958.04 | -1,250.50 | -1,632.25 | -2,130.53 | -2,780.92 |
UFCF | 455.52 | 361.26 | 791.55 | 241.83 | 1,060.49 | 1,286.16 | 1,711.95 | 2,234.57 | 2,916.72 | 3,807.11 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 1,203.82 | 1,499.77 | 1,832.28 | 2,238.51 | 2,734.80 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 9,509.18 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.84 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,883.25 |
Terminal Value | 80,232.51 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 57,634.30 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 67,143.47 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 6,319 |
Equity Value | 60,824.47 |
Shares Outstanding | 152.47 |
Equity Value Per Share | 398.93 |