Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

China Xiangtai Food Co., Ltd. (PLIN)

$1.15

+0.03 (+2.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -27.06 | 1.15 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 63.28101.10102.55110.5580.5088.9298.21108.49119.83132.36
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4.536.316.11-2.40-46.31-7.17-7.93-8.75-9.67-10.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 45.765.42-2.98-46.32-7.63-8.43-9.31-10.29-11.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.530.540.690.580.010.460.510.560.620.68
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 0.020.313.221.530.010.870.961.061.171.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 19.2526.9039.7840.7211.1426.0528.7831.7935.1138.78
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.2800.110.210.150.170.180.200.220.25
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.812.948.877.519.976.256.917.638.439.31
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.01-0.09-0.02-0.70-0.15-0.17-0.19-0.21-0.23-0.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.15
Beta 0.016
Diluted Shares Outstanding 23.79
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -242.93
After-tax Cost of Debt 14.13%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.283
Total Debt 2.08
Total Equity 27.36
Total Capital 29.44
Debt Weighting 7.07
Equity Weighting 92.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 63.28101.10102.55110.5580.5088.9298.21108.49119.83132.36
EBITDA 4.536.316.11-2.40-46.31-7.17-7.93-8.75-9.67-10.68
EBIT 45.765.42-2.98-46.32-7.63-8.43-9.31-10.29-11.36
Tax Rate 26.29%15.94%4.67%-104.90%-242.93%-60.19%-60.19%-60.19%-60.19%-60.19%
EBIAT 2.954.855.17-6.11-158.84-12.23-13.51-14.92-16.48-18.20
Depreciation 0.530.540.690.580.010.460.510.560.620.68
Accounts Receivable --7.65-12.88-0.9429.58-14.91-2.72-3.01-3.32-3.67
Inventories -0.28-0.11-0.090.06-0.02-0.02-0.02-0.02-0.02
Accounts Payable -0.135.93-1.362.46-3.710.650.720.800.88
Capital Expenditure -0.01-0.09-0.02-0.70-0.15-0.17-0.19-0.21-0.23-0.25
UFCF 3.47-1.94-1.22-8.62-126.89-30.58-15.28-16.87-18.64-20.59
WACC
PV UFCF -29.13-13.86-14.58-15.34-16.14
SUM PV UFCF -89.06

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.98
Free cash flow (t + 1) -21
Terminal Value -704.62
Present Value of Terminal Value -552.61

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -641.67
Net Debt 2.07
Equity Value -643.75
Shares Outstanding 23.79
Equity Value Per Share -27.06