Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Playa Hotels & Resorts N.V. (PLYA)
$5.93
-0.09 (-1.50%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 559.54 | 617.01 | 636.48 | 273.19 | 534.64 | 604.21 | 682.83 | 771.69 | 872.10 | 985.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 115.60 | 166.70 | 124.41 | -98.83 | 55.80 | 50.13 | 56.65 | 64.02 | 72.36 | 81.77 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 62.47 | 93.42 | 22.51 | -191.40 | -25.71 | -54.41 | -61.49 | -69.50 | -78.54 | -88.76 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 53.13 | 73.28 | 101.90 | 92.57 | 81.51 | 104.54 | 118.15 | 133.52 | 150.89 | 170.53 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 117.23 | 116.35 | 20.93 | 146.92 | 270.09 | 178.11 | 201.29 | 227.48 | 257.08 | 290.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 53.02 | 71.20 | 76.65 | 29.16 | 53.42 | 64.92 | 73.37 | 82.92 | 93.71 | 105.90 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 11.31 | 15.39 | 16.65 | 13.81 | 18.08 | 18.81 | 21.26 | 24.03 | 27.15 | 30.69 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 18.16 | 24.45 | 45.30 | 31.42 | 165.27 | 68.57 | 77.49 | 87.57 | 98.97 | 111.84 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -107.23 | -113.68 | -212.54 | -37.36 | -17.33 | -106.22 | -120.04 | -135.66 | -153.32 | -173.27 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 5.93 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.581 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 164.22 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 7.63 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.78% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.154 |
| Total Debt | 1,139.32 |
| Total Equity | 973.81 |
| Total Capital | 2,113.13 |
| Debt Weighting | 53.92 |
| Equity Weighting | 46.08 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 559.54 | 617.01 | 636.48 | 273.19 | 534.64 | 604.21 | 682.83 | 771.69 | 872.10 | 985.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 115.60 | 166.70 | 124.41 | -98.83 | 55.80 | 50.13 | 56.65 | 64.02 | 72.36 | 81.77 |
| EBIT | 62.47 | 93.42 | 22.51 | -191.40 | -25.71 | -54.41 | -61.49 | -69.50 | -78.54 | -88.76 |
| Tax Rate | 102.74% | 39.13% | 79.81% | 4.01% | 7.63% | 46.66% | 46.66% | 46.66% | 46.66% | 46.66% |
| EBIAT | -1.71 | 56.86 | 4.55 | -183.72 | -23.75 | -29.02 | -32.80 | -37.07 | -41.89 | -47.34 |
| Depreciation | 53.13 | 73.28 | 101.90 | 92.57 | 81.51 | 104.54 | 118.15 | 133.52 | 150.89 | 170.53 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -18.18 | -5.45 | 47.49 | -24.26 | -11.50 | -8.45 | -9.55 | -10.79 | -12.19 |
| Inventories | - | -4.08 | -1.26 | 2.84 | -4.26 | -0.74 | -2.45 | -2.77 | -3.13 | -3.53 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 6.29 | 20.85 | -13.88 | 133.85 | -96.71 | 8.92 | 10.08 | 11.40 | 12.88 |
| Capital Expenditure | -107.23 | -113.68 | -212.54 | -37.36 | -17.33 | -106.22 | -120.04 | -135.66 | -153.32 | -173.27 |
| UFCF | -55.81 | 0.49 | -91.96 | -92.06 | 145.75 | -139.64 | -36.67 | -41.44 | -46.83 | -52.93 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -128.99 | -31.29 | -32.66 | -34.09 | -35.59 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -262.62 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.26 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -53.99 |
| Terminal Value | -862.40 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -579.92 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -842.54 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 869.23 |
| Equity Value | -1,711.77 |
| Shares Outstanding | 164.22 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -10.42 |