Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Playa Hotels & Resorts N.V. (PLYA)
$7.67
-0.02 (-0.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 559.54 | 617.01 | 636.48 | 273.19 | 534.64 | 604.21 | 682.83 | 771.69 | 872.10 | 985.58 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 115.60 | 166.70 | 124.41 | -98.83 | 55.80 | 50.13 | 56.65 | 64.02 | 72.36 | 81.77 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 62.47 | 93.42 | 22.51 | -191.40 | -25.71 | -54.41 | -61.49 | -69.50 | -78.54 | -88.76 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 53.13 | 73.28 | 101.90 | 92.57 | 81.51 | 104.54 | 118.15 | 133.52 | 150.89 | 170.53 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 117.23 | 116.35 | 20.93 | 146.92 | 270.09 | 178.11 | 201.29 | 227.48 | 257.08 | 290.54 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 53.02 | 71.20 | 76.65 | 29.16 | 53.42 | 64.92 | 73.37 | 82.92 | 93.71 | 105.90 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 11.31 | 15.39 | 16.65 | 13.81 | 18.08 | 18.81 | 21.26 | 24.03 | 27.15 | 30.69 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 18.16 | 24.45 | 45.30 | 31.42 | 165.27 | 68.57 | 77.49 | 87.57 | 98.97 | 111.84 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -107.23 | -113.68 | -212.54 | -37.36 | -17.33 | -106.22 | -120.04 | -135.66 | -153.32 | -173.27 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 7.67 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.555 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 164.22 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 7.63 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.78% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.978 |
Total Debt | 1,139.32 |
Total Equity | 1,259.55 |
Total Capital | 2,398.87 |
Debt Weighting | 47.49 |
Equity Weighting | 52.51 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 559.54 | 617.01 | 636.48 | 273.19 | 534.64 | 604.21 | 682.83 | 771.69 | 872.10 | 985.58 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 115.60 | 166.70 | 124.41 | -98.83 | 55.80 | 50.13 | 56.65 | 64.02 | 72.36 | 81.77 |
EBIT | 62.47 | 93.42 | 22.51 | -191.40 | -25.71 | -54.41 | -61.49 | -69.50 | -78.54 | -88.76 |
Tax Rate | 102.74% | 39.13% | 79.81% | 4.01% | 7.63% | 46.66% | 46.66% | 46.66% | 46.66% | 46.66% |
EBIAT | -1.71 | 56.86 | 4.55 | -183.72 | -23.75 | -29.02 | -32.80 | -37.07 | -41.89 | -47.34 |
Depreciation | 53.13 | 73.28 | 101.90 | 92.57 | 81.51 | 104.54 | 118.15 | 133.52 | 150.89 | 170.53 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -18.18 | -5.45 | 47.49 | -24.26 | -11.50 | -8.45 | -9.55 | -10.79 | -12.19 |
Inventories | - | -4.08 | -1.26 | 2.84 | -4.26 | -0.74 | -2.45 | -2.77 | -3.13 | -3.53 |
Accounts Payable | - | 6.29 | 20.85 | -13.88 | 133.85 | -96.71 | 8.92 | 10.08 | 11.40 | 12.88 |
Capital Expenditure | -107.23 | -113.68 | -212.54 | -37.36 | -17.33 | -106.22 | -120.04 | -135.66 | -153.32 | -173.27 |
UFCF | -55.81 | 0.49 | -91.96 | -92.06 | 145.75 | -139.64 | -36.67 | -41.44 | -46.83 | -52.93 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -128.69 | -31.14 | -32.44 | -33.78 | -35.18 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -261.23 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.51 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -53.99 |
Terminal Value | -829.28 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -551.26 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -812.49 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 869.23 |
Equity Value | -1,681.72 |
Shares Outstanding | 164.22 |
Equity Value Per Share | -10.24 |