Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Playa Hotels & Resorts N.V. (PLYA)

$5.93

-0.09 (-1.50%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -10.42 | 5.93 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 559.54617.01636.48273.19534.64604.21682.83771.69872.10985.58
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 115.60166.70124.41-98.8355.8050.1356.6564.0272.3681.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 62.4793.4222.51-191.40-25.71-54.41-61.49-69.50-78.54-88.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 53.1373.28101.9092.5781.51104.54118.15133.52150.89170.53
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 117.23116.3520.93146.92270.09178.11201.29227.48257.08290.54
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 53.0271.2076.6529.1653.4264.9273.3782.9293.71105.90
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 11.3115.3916.6513.8118.0818.8121.2624.0327.1530.69
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 18.1624.4545.3031.42165.2768.5777.4987.5798.97111.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -107.23-113.68-212.54-37.36-17.33-106.22-120.04-135.66-153.32-173.27
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.93
Beta 1.581
Diluted Shares Outstanding 164.22
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 7.63
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.78%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.154
Total Debt 1,139.32
Total Equity 973.81
Total Capital 2,113.13
Debt Weighting 53.92
Equity Weighting 46.08
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 559.54617.01636.48273.19534.64604.21682.83771.69872.10985.58
EBITDA 115.60166.70124.41-98.8355.8050.1356.6564.0272.3681.77
EBIT 62.4793.4222.51-191.40-25.71-54.41-61.49-69.50-78.54-88.76
Tax Rate 102.74%39.13%79.81%4.01%7.63%46.66%46.66%46.66%46.66%46.66%
EBIAT -1.7156.864.55-183.72-23.75-29.02-32.80-37.07-41.89-47.34
Depreciation 53.1373.28101.9092.5781.51104.54118.15133.52150.89170.53
Accounts Receivable --18.18-5.4547.49-24.26-11.50-8.45-9.55-10.79-12.19
Inventories --4.08-1.262.84-4.26-0.74-2.45-2.77-3.13-3.53
Accounts Payable -6.2920.85-13.88133.85-96.718.9210.0811.4012.88
Capital Expenditure -107.23-113.68-212.54-37.36-17.33-106.22-120.04-135.66-153.32-173.27
UFCF -55.810.49-91.96-92.06145.75-139.64-36.67-41.44-46.83-52.93
WACC
PV UFCF -128.99-31.29-32.66-34.09-35.59
SUM PV UFCF -262.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.26
Free cash flow (t + 1) -53.99
Terminal Value -862.40
Present Value of Terminal Value -579.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -842.54
Net Debt 869.23
Equity Value -1,711.77
Shares Outstanding 164.22
Equity Value Per Share -10.42