Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)

$87.5

+0.48 (+0.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 118.91 | 87.5 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 28,74829,62529,80528,69431,40532,141.3432,894.9533,666.2234,455.5835,263.45
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 12,31312,20011,23812,14213,51513,310.8413,622.9413,942.3514,269.2514,603.82
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11,43811,21110,27411,16112,51712,268.6212,556.2812,850.6813,151.9913,460.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8759899649819981,042.221,066.661,091.671,117.261,143.46
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 8,4476,5936,8617,2804,4967,350.397,522.737,699.117,879.638,064.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3,7383,5643,7173,7613,9404,059.914,155.104,252.524,352.234,454.28
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 8,8068,8049,2359,5918,7209,804.7810,034.6710,269.9510,510.7410,757.18
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,2422,0682,2992,7803,3312,750.522,815.012,881.012,948.563,017.70
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,548-1,436-852-602-748-1,129.47-1,155.95-1,183.05-1,210.79-1,239.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 87.5
Beta 0.637
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,557
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.53
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.97%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.828
Total Debt 27,806
Total Equity 136,237.50
Total Capital 164,043.50
Debt Weighting 16.95
Equity Weighting 83.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 28,74829,62529,80528,69431,40532,141.3432,894.9533,666.2234,455.5835,263.45
EBITDA 12,31312,20011,23812,14213,51513,310.8413,622.9413,942.3514,269.2514,603.82
EBIT 11,43811,21110,27411,16112,51712,268.6212,556.2812,850.6813,151.9913,460.36
Tax Rate 43.01%25.86%27.22%26.45%25.53%29.61%29.61%29.61%29.61%29.61%
EBIAT 6,518.878,311.337,477.588,208.999,321.248,635.388,837.859,045.079,257.149,474.19
Depreciation 8759899649819981,042.221,066.661,091.671,117.261,143.46
Accounts Receivable -174-153-44-179-119.91-95.19-97.42-99.71-102.05
Inventories -2-431-356871-1,084.78-229.89-235.28-240.80-246.44
Accounts Payable --174231481551-580.4864.496667.5569.13
Capital Expenditure -1,548-1,436-852-602-748-1,129.47-1,155.95-1,183.05-1,210.79-1,239.18
UFCF 5,845.877,866.337,236.588,668.9910,814.246,762.978,487.978,686.988,890.669,099.12
WACC
PV UFCF 6,380.167,554.267,293.767,042.246,799.39
SUM PV UFCF 35,069.80

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.00
Free cash flow (t + 1) 9,281.10
Terminal Value 232,027.50
Present Value of Terminal Value 173,384.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 208,454.25
Net Debt 23,310
Equity Value 185,144.25
Shares Outstanding 1,557
Equity Value Per Share 118.91