Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS)

$19.35

+0.38 (+2.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 220.78 | 19.35 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 255.81278.07312.19375.12475.75556.57651.12761.73891.131,042.52
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 23.0136.5455.1274.5894.4988.53103.57121.16141.75165.83
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4.6019.5438.2959.4879.6059.7569.9081.7895.67111.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 18.411716.8315.1014.8928.7833.6739.3946.0853.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 20.2918.6857.6020.6811.0445.5753.3162.3672.9685.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 49.364765.1061.4980.75100.64117.74137.74161.14188.52
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 9.8320.1924.8058.0168.4054.4263.6674.4887.13101.93
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 16.5116.4818.8826.4424.3734.0639.8546.6254.5463.81
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5.63-4.17-7.09-10.07-17.87-13.82-16.17-18.92-22.13-25.89
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 19.35
Beta 0.970
Diluted Shares Outstanding 11.75
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.65
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.863
Total Debt 291.22
Total Equity 227.35
Total Capital 518.56
Debt Weighting 56.16
Equity Weighting 43.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 255.81278.07312.19375.12475.75556.57651.12761.73891.131,042.52
EBITDA 23.0136.5455.1274.5894.4988.53103.57121.16141.75165.83
EBIT 4.6019.5438.2959.4879.6059.7569.9081.7895.67111.92
Tax Rate -95.75%-538.64%-25.18%33.08%25.65%-120.17%-120.17%-120.17%-120.17%-120.17%
EBIAT 9.01124.7947.9339.8059.18131.55153.90180.05210.64246.42
Depreciation 18.411716.8315.1014.8928.7833.6739.3946.0853.90
Accounts Receivable -2.36-18.113.62-19.27-19.89-17.10-20-23.40-27.38
Inventories --10.37-4.60-33.21-10.3913.98-9.24-10.82-12.65-14.80
Accounts Payable --0.032.407.56-2.079.695.796.777.929.27
Capital Expenditure -5.63-4.17-7.09-10.07-17.87-13.82-16.17-18.92-22.13-25.89
UFCF 21.78129.5937.3522.7924.47150.30150.84176.47206.45241.52
WACC
PV UFCF 139129.01139.58151.02163.39
SUM PV UFCF 722

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) 242.73
Terminal Value 3,181.25
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,152.12

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,874.13
Net Debt 280.18
Equity Value 2,593.94
Shares Outstanding 11.75
Equity Value Per Share 220.78