Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Carnival PLC (POH1.DE)

10.03 €

+0.03 (+0.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -15,273.21 | 10.03 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 18,88120,8255,5941,90812,16924,613.4549,784.05100,694.99203,669.26411,948.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5,4175,427-7,117-5,688-2,195-19,130.87-38,694.77-78,265.42-158,302.42-320,188.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,4003,267-9,358-7,921-7,614.74-30,093.03-60,867.24-123,112.24-249,011.19-503,658.91
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,0172,1602,2412,2335,419.7410,962.1722,172.4744,846.8290,708.77183,470.79
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 9825189,5139,1394,02933,958.5768,685.81138,926.36280,997.41568,355.36
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 4504273353564281,604.693,245.696,564.8613,278.3226,857.19
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7307566247971,0503,399.186,875.3113,906.2528,127.2856,891.23
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,749-5,429-3,620-3,607-9,117.13-18,440.64-37,298.69-75,441.66-152,590.99-308,635.96
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 10.03
Beta 2.277
Diluted Shares Outstanding 775
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.21
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.48%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.280
Total Debt 35,881
Total Equity 7,773.25
Total Capital 43,654.25
Debt Weighting 82.19
Equity Weighting 17.81
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 18,88120,8255,5941,90812,16924,613.4549,784.05100,694.99203,669.26411,948.71
EBITDA 5,4175,427-7,117-5,688-2,195-19,130.87-38,694.77-78,265.42-158,302.42-320,188.12
EBIT 3,4003,267-9,358-7,921-7,614.74-30,093.03-60,867.24-123,112.24-249,011.19-503,658.91
Tax Rate 1.71%2.29%0.17%0.22%-0.21%0.84%0.84%0.84%0.84%0.84%
EBIAT 3,341.693,192.26-9,342.48-7,903.53-7,631.02-29,841.75-60,358.98-122,084.22-246,931.90-499,453.25
Depreciation 2,0172,1602,2412,2335,419.7410,962.1722,172.4744,846.8290,708.77183,470.79
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -2392-21-72-1,176.69-1,641.01-3,319.16-6,713.46-13,578.88
Accounts Payable -26-1321732532,349.183,476.137,030.9414,221.0328,763.95
Capital Expenditure -3,749-5,429-3,620-3,607-9,117.13-18,440.64-37,298.69-75,441.66-152,590.99-308,635.96
UFCF 1,609.69-27.74-10,761.48-9,125.53-11,147.41-36,147.72-73,650.09-148,967.29-301,306.54-609,433.34
WACC
PV UFCF -34,030.99-65,277.07-124,300.25-236,691.89-450,707.44
SUM PV UFCF -911,007.64

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.22
Free cash flow (t + 1) -621,622.01
Terminal Value -14,730,379.29
Present Value of Terminal Value -10,893,876.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -11,804,884.06
Net Debt 31,852
Equity Value -11,836,736.06
Shares Outstanding 775
Equity Value Per Share -15,273.21