Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Polar Power, Inc. (POLA)
$2.15
-0.06 (-2.71%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 14.42 | 24.05 | 24.80 | 9.03 | 16.90 | 20.84 | 25.71 | 31.71 | 39.12 | 48.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -0.48 | -0.66 | -2.65 | -11.72 | -0.80 | -6.31 | -7.78 | -9.60 | -11.84 | -14.60 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -0.74 | -1.04 | -3.94 | -12.96 | -1.35 | -7.37 | -9.10 | -11.22 | -13.84 | -17.07 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.26 | 0.39 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 0.55 | 1.07 | 1.32 | 1.62 | 2 | 2.47 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 13.20 | 5.64 | 2.84 | 1.65 | 5.10 | 7.29 | 8.99 | 11.09 | 13.68 | 16.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 3.69 | 8.44 | 1.17 | 3.55 | 7.03 | 6.10 | 7.52 | 9.28 | 11.44 | 14.12 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 5.49 | 8.47 | 13.91 | 9.09 | 9.02 | 11.82 | 14.57 | 17.98 | 22.18 | 27.36 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.76 | 1.07 | 0.57 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.72 | 0.89 | 1.10 | 1.36 | 1.68 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.34 | -0.57 | -0.34 | -0.02 | -0.07 | -0.28 | -0.35 | -0.43 | -0.53 | -0.65 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.15 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.588 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12.72 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.523 |
| Total Debt | 1.50 |
| Total Equity | 27.35 |
| Total Capital | 28.85 |
| Debt Weighting | 5.20 |
| Equity Weighting | 94.80 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 14.42 | 24.05 | 24.80 | 9.03 | 16.90 | 20.84 | 25.71 | 31.71 | 39.12 | 48.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -0.48 | -0.66 | -2.65 | -11.72 | -0.80 | -6.31 | -7.78 | -9.60 | -11.84 | -14.60 |
| EBIT | -0.74 | -1.04 | -3.94 | -12.96 | -1.35 | -7.37 | -9.10 | -11.22 | -13.84 | -17.07 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 20.22% | 0.00% | 16.44% | 0.00% | 7.33% | 7.33% | 7.33% | 7.33% | 7.33% |
| EBIAT | -0.74 | -0.83 | -3.94 | -10.83 | -1.35 | -6.83 | -8.43 | -10.40 | -12.83 | -15.82 |
| Depreciation | 0.26 | 0.39 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 0.55 | 1.07 | 1.32 | 1.62 | 2 | 2.47 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -4.76 | 7.28 | -2.38 | -3.48 | 0.93 | -1.42 | -1.76 | -2.17 | -2.67 |
| Inventories | - | -2.98 | -5.44 | 4.82 | 0.08 | -2.80 | -2.76 | -3.40 | -4.20 | -5.18 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.31 | -0.49 | -0.26 | 0.02 | 0.40 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.34 | -0.57 | -0.34 | -0.02 | -0.07 | -0.28 | -0.35 | -0.43 | -0.53 | -0.65 |
| UFCF | -0.83 | -8.45 | -1.65 | -7.43 | -4.26 | -7.52 | -11.47 | -14.15 | -17.46 | -21.53 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -7.06 | -10.14 | -11.75 | -13.63 | -15.80 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -58.38 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.39 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -21.96 |
| Terminal Value | -500.33 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -367.08 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -425.45 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -3.60 |
| Equity Value | -421.85 |
| Shares Outstanding | 12.72 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -33.16 |