Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

PQ Group Holdings Inc. (PQG)

$15.65

+0.09 (+0.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -1.37 | 15.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 1,064.181,472.101,608.151,567.071,107.361,150.781,195.911,242.801,291.531,342.17
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 198.90294.59386.25413.85-108.07182.68189.84197.28205.02213.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 70.61117.45201.02231.76-259.9142.4244.0845.8147.6149.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 128.29177.14185.23182.09151.84140.25145.75151.47157.41163.58
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 70.7466.1957.8572.28135.5372.7175.5778.5381.6184.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 160.58193.46196.77179.63132.62147.08152.85158.84165.07171.55
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 227.05262.39264.75280.94127.44195.77203.44211.42219.71228.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 128.48149.33148.37144.37112.33116.92121.50126.27131.22136.36
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -121.42-140.48-131.69-127.64-97.14-106.01-110.16-114.48-118.97-123.64
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 15.65
Beta 0.805
Diluted Shares Outstanding 135.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -22.49
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.63%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.605
Total Debt 1,447.58
Total Equity 2,121.03
Total Capital 3,568.61
Debt Weighting 40.56
Equity Weighting 59.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 1,064.181,472.101,608.151,567.071,107.361,150.781,195.911,242.801,291.531,342.17
EBITDA 198.90294.59386.25413.85-108.07182.68189.84197.28205.02213.06
EBIT 70.61117.45201.02231.76-259.9142.4244.0845.8147.6149.48
Tax Rate -15.38%195.00%34.21%34.27%-22.49%45.12%45.12%45.12%45.12%45.12%
EBIAT 81.47-111.58132.25152.34-318.3723.2824.1925.1426.1327.15
Depreciation 128.29177.14185.23182.09151.84140.25145.75151.47157.41163.58
Accounts Receivable --32.88-3.3117.1447.01-14.46-5.77-5.99-6.23-6.47
Inventories --35.34-2.36-16.20153.51-68.33-7.68-7.98-8.29-8.62
Accounts Payable -20.85-0.96-4-32.034.584.584.764.955.15
Capital Expenditure -121.42-140.48-131.69-127.64-97.14-106.01-110.16-114.48-118.97-123.64
UFCF 88.34-122.29179.16203.73-95.18-20.6950.9252.925557.15
WACC
PV UFCF -19.4444.9843.9342.9141.91
SUM PV UFCF 154.29

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) 58.29
Terminal Value 1,324.88
Present Value of Terminal Value 971.56

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,125.85
Net Debt 1,312.05
Equity Value -186.20
Shares Outstanding 135.53
Equity Value Per Share -1.37