Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Primoris Services Corporation (PRIM)

$16.25

-0.32 (-1.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 15.77 | 16.25 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,379.992,939.483,106.333,491.503,497.633,862.784,266.044,711.415,203.275,746.48
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 175.24201.22221.64167.12275.79262.78290.22320.52353.98390.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 108.93121.97136.2484.63170.23157.62174.08192.25212.32234.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 66.3079.2585.4082.50105.56105.16116.14128.26141.65156.44
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 170.39151.06120.29326.74200.51241.51266.73294.57325.32359.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 518.27736.94749.72432.46895.31841.82929.701,026.761,133.951,252.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 40.9250.5453.4160.0360.1466.4273.3581.0189.4798.81
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 140.94249.22235.97245.91273.46284.75314.48347.31383.57423.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -79.78-110.19-94.49-64.36-133.84-122.16-134.91-149-164.56-181.73
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 16.25
Beta 1.102
Diluted Shares Outstanding 54.37
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.87
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.86%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.007
Total Debt 759.52
Total Equity 883.46
Total Capital 1,642.98
Debt Weighting 46.23
Equity Weighting 53.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,379.992,939.483,106.333,491.503,497.633,862.784,266.044,711.415,203.275,746.48
EBITDA 175.24201.22221.64167.12275.79262.78290.22320.52353.98390.93
EBIT 108.93121.97136.2484.63170.23157.62174.08192.25212.32234.49
Tax Rate 31.28%31.67%30.18%27.92%23.87%28.98%28.98%28.98%28.98%28.98%
EBIAT 74.8683.3595.1261129.60111.94123.63136.54150.79166.53
Depreciation 66.3079.2585.4082.50105.56105.16116.14128.26141.65156.44
Accounts Receivable --218.67-12.78317.26-462.8653.50-87.88-97.06-107.19-118.38
Inventories --9.62-2.87-6.62-0.11-6.28-6.93-7.66-8.46-9.34
Accounts Payable -108.27-13.249.9327.5611.2929.7332.8336.2640.04
Capital Expenditure -79.78-110.19-94.49-64.36-133.84-122.16-134.91-149-164.56-181.73
UFCF 61.38-67.6157.14399.72-334.10153.4539.7643.9148.5053.56
WACC
PV UFCF 145.1735.5937.1938.8540.60
SUM PV UFCF 297.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.70
Free cash flow (t + 1) 54.63
Terminal Value 1,476.55
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,119.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,416.51
Net Debt 559.01
Equity Value 857.50
Shares Outstanding 54.37
Equity Value Per Share 15.77