Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Primo Water Corporation (PRMW)

$12.71

-0.33 (-2.53%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 96.86 | 12.71 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,269.70	2,372.90	2,394.50	1,953.50	1,869.11	1,788.36	1,711.10	1,637.18	1,566.46	1,498.79	1,434.04
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	242.70	650.30	283.40	156.30	270.72	259.02	247.83	237.12	226.88	217.08	207.70
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	54.10	455.70	90.60	-45.80	107.60	102.95	98.50	94.25	90.18	86.28	82.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	188.60	194.60	192.80	202.10	163.12	156.07	149.33	142.88	136.70	130.80	125.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	91.90	170.80	205.50	115.10	120.19	115	110.03	105.28	100.73	96.38	92.21
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	285	308.30	279.30	222.30	227.06	217.26	207.87	198.89	190.30	182.08	174.21
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	127.60	129.60	122.50	83.80	95.74	91.61	87.65	83.86	80.24	76.77	73.46
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	197.20	206.10	200.40	135.20	152.63	146.04	139.73	133.69	127.92	122.39	117.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-126.90	-144	-125.50	-123.30	-108.47	-103.78	-99.30	-95.01	-90.90	-86.98	-83.22
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 12.71
Beta	1.234
Diluted Shares Outstanding	160.78
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	150.79
After-tax Cost of Debt	-2.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.665
Total Debt	1,741.90
Total Equity	2,043.49
Total Capital	3,785.39
Debt Weighting	46.02
Equity Weighting	53.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,269.70	2,372.90	2,394.50	1,953.50	1,869.11	1,788.36	1,711.10	1,637.18	1,566.46	1,498.79	1,434.04
EBITDA	242.70	650.30	283.40	156.30	270.72	259.02	247.83	237.12	226.88	217.08	207.70
EBIT	54.10	455.70	90.60	-45.80	107.60	102.95	98.50	94.25	90.18	86.28	82.55
Tax Rate	95.83%	-1,488.80%	69.15%	13.64%	-231.88%	150.79%	-231.88%	-231.88%	-231.88%	-231.88%	-231.88%
EBIAT	2.25	7,240.15	27.95	-39.55	357.10	-52.29	326.91	312.79	299.28	286.35	273.98
Depreciation	188.60	194.60	192.80	202.10	163.12	156.07	149.33	142.88	136.70	130.80	125.15
Accounts Receivable	-	-23.30	29	57	-4.76	9.81	9.39	8.98	8.59	8.22	7.87
Inventories	-	-2	7.10	38.70	-11.94	4.14	3.96	3.79	3.62	3.47	3.32
Accounts Payable	-	8.90	-5.70	-65.20	17.43	-6.59	-6.31	-6.04	-5.78	-5.53	-5.29
Capital Expenditure	-126.90	-144	-125.50	-123.30	-108.47	-161.70	-99.30	-95.01	-90.90	-86.98	-83.22
UFCF	63.95	7,274.35	125.65	69.75	412.47	7.35	383.98	367.39	351.52	336.33	321.80
WACC
PV UFCF					412.47	7.08	356.72	328.97	303.38	279.79	258.02
SUM PV UFCF											1,584.15

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	3.75
Free cash flow (t + 1)	328.24
Terminal Value	18,756.44
Present Value of Terminal Value	15,603.07

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	17,187.21
Net Debt	1,613.50
Equity Value	15,573.71
Shares Outstanding	160.78
Equity Value Per Share	96.86