Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Primo Water Corporation (PRMW)

$12.71

-0.33 (-2.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 96.86 | 12.71 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,269.702,372.902,394.501,953.501,869.111,788.361,711.101,637.181,566.461,498.791,434.04
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 242.70650.30283.40156.30270.72259.02247.83237.12226.88217.08207.70
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 54.10455.7090.60-45.80107.60102.9598.5094.2590.1886.2882.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 188.60194.60192.80202.10163.12156.07149.33142.88136.70130.80125.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 91.90170.80205.50115.10120.19115110.03105.28100.7396.3892.21
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 285308.30279.30222.30227.06217.26207.87198.89190.30182.08174.21
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 127.60129.60122.5083.8095.7491.6187.6583.8680.2476.7773.46
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 197.20206.10200.40135.20152.63146.04139.73133.69127.92122.39117.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -126.90-144-125.50-123.30-108.47-103.78-99.30-95.01-90.90-86.98-83.22
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 12.71
Beta 1.234
Diluted Shares Outstanding 160.78
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 150.79
After-tax Cost of Debt -2.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.665
Total Debt 1,741.90
Total Equity 2,043.49
Total Capital 3,785.39
Debt Weighting 46.02
Equity Weighting 53.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,269.702,372.902,394.501,953.501,869.111,788.361,711.101,637.181,566.461,498.791,434.04
EBITDA 242.70650.30283.40156.30270.72259.02247.83237.12226.88217.08207.70
EBIT 54.10455.7090.60-45.80107.60102.9598.5094.2590.1886.2882.55
Tax Rate 95.83%-1,488.80%69.15%13.64%-231.88%150.79%-231.88%-231.88%-231.88%-231.88%-231.88%
EBIAT 2.257,240.1527.95-39.55357.10-52.29326.91312.79299.28286.35273.98
Depreciation 188.60194.60192.80202.10163.12156.07149.33142.88136.70130.80125.15
Accounts Receivable --23.302957-4.769.819.398.988.598.227.87
Inventories --27.1038.70-11.944.143.963.793.623.473.32
Accounts Payable -8.90-5.70-65.2017.43-6.59-6.31-6.04-5.78-5.53-5.29
Capital Expenditure -126.90-144-125.50-123.30-108.47-161.70-99.30-95.01-90.90-86.98-83.22
UFCF 63.957,274.35125.6569.75412.477.35383.98367.39351.52336.33321.80
WACC
PV UFCF 412.477.08356.72328.97303.38279.79258.02
SUM PV UFCF 1,584.15

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.75
Free cash flow (t + 1) 328.24
Terminal Value 18,756.44
Present Value of Terminal Value 15,603.07

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 17,187.21
Net Debt 1,613.50
Equity Value 15,573.71
Shares Outstanding 160.78
Equity Value Per Share 96.86