Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP)
$7.19
+0.04 (+0.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,704.56 | 2,052.31 | 789.23 | 874.51 | 1,279.70 | 1,330.87 | 1,384.09 | 1,439.44 | 1,497 | 1,556.87 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 320.14 | 365.95 | 21.17 | 65.55 | 137.10 | 153.06 | 159.18 | 165.55 | 172.17 | 179.05 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 232.01 | 220.64 | -132.12 | -67.82 | 8.99 | 1.51 | 1.58 | 1.64 | 1.70 | 1.77 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 88.14 | 145.30 | 153.29 | 133.38 | 128.11 | 151.55 | 157.61 | 163.91 | 170.47 | 177.28 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 132.70 | 149.04 | 68.77 | 111.92 | 99.15 | 117.93 | 122.65 | 127.55 | 132.65 | 137.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 202.96 | 212.18 | 84.24 | 128.15 | 215.93 | 171.54 | 178.40 | 185.53 | 192.95 | 200.67 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 6.35 | 2.44 | 2.73 | 3.95 | 5.03 | 4.48 | 4.66 | 4.84 | 5.04 | 5.24 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 214.46 | 193.10 | 79.15 | 152.65 | 234.30 | 180.42 | 187.64 | 195.14 | 202.94 | 211.06 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -284.20 | -502.89 | -100.60 | -143.52 | -319.68 | -253.71 | -263.85 | -274.40 | -285.38 | -296.79 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.19 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.378 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 106.94 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 72.52 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.33% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.719 |
| Total Debt | 33.16 |
| Total Equity | 768.89 |
| Total Capital | 802.05 |
| Debt Weighting | 4.13 |
| Equity Weighting | 95.87 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,704.56 | 2,052.31 | 789.23 | 874.51 | 1,279.70 | 1,330.87 | 1,384.09 | 1,439.44 | 1,497 | 1,556.87 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 320.14 | 365.95 | 21.17 | 65.55 | 137.10 | 153.06 | 159.18 | 165.55 | 172.17 | 179.05 |
| EBIT | 232.01 | 220.64 | -132.12 | -67.82 | 8.99 | 1.51 | 1.58 | 1.64 | 1.70 | 1.77 |
| Tax Rate | 22.77% | 23.65% | 20.43% | 20.82% | 72.52% | 32.04% | 32.04% | 32.04% | 32.04% | 32.04% |
| EBIAT | 179.18 | 168.46 | -105.12 | -53.70 | 2.47 | 1.03 | 1.07 | 1.11 | 1.16 | 1.20 |
| Depreciation | 88.14 | 145.30 | 153.29 | 133.38 | 128.11 | 151.55 | 157.61 | 163.91 | 170.47 | 177.28 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -9.23 | 127.94 | -43.90 | -87.78 | 44.39 | -6.86 | -7.13 | -7.42 | -7.72 |
| Inventories | - | 3.92 | -0.29 | -1.22 | -1.08 | 0.56 | -0.18 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.20 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -21.36 | -113.94 | 73.50 | 81.65 | -53.88 | 7.21 | 7.50 | 7.80 | 8.12 |
| Capital Expenditure | -284.20 | -502.89 | -100.60 | -143.52 | -319.68 | -253.71 | -263.85 | -274.40 | -285.38 | -296.79 |
| UFCF | -16.88 | -215.80 | -38.73 | -35.47 | -196.32 | -110.06 | -105 | -109.20 | -113.56 | -118.10 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -96.40 | -80.55 | -73.38 | -66.84 | -60.88 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -378.05 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 14.17 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -120.47 |
| Terminal Value | -989.86 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -510.29 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -888.34 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -55.70 |
| Equity Value | -832.64 |
| Shares Outstanding | 106.94 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -7.79 |