Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)
$73.88
+1.32 (+1.82%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 15,451 | 17,772 | 21,454 | 25,371 | 27,518 | 31,814.92 | 36,782.80 | 42,526.41 | 49,166.88 | 56,844.26 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 3,229 | 4,025 | 6,463 | 5,596 | 4,987 | 7,244.29 | 8,375.49 | 9,683.31 | 11,195.36 | 12,943.51 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 2,453 | 3,113 | 5,274 | 4,331 | 3,670 | 5,623.77 | 6,501.91 | 7,517.18 | 8,690.99 | 10,048.08 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 776 | 912 | 1,189 | 1,265 | 1,317 | 1,620.53 | 1,873.57 | 2,166.13 | 2,504.37 | 2,895.43 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 9,109 | 10,761 | 13,083 | 9,500 | 10,851 | 16,375.95 | 18,933.04 | 21,889.43 | 25,307.45 | 29,259.19 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 22,907 | 26,934 | 36,764 | 41,787 | 44,751 | 50,808.36 | 58,742.06 | 67,914.59 | 78,519.41 | 90,780.17 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 21,843 | 24,759 | 35,670 | 39,038 | 40,233 | 47,532.86 | 54,955.09 | 63,536.29 | 73,457.44 | 84,927.78 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -823 | -704 | -866 | -908 | -706 | -1,238.80 | -1,432.24 | -1,655.88 | -1,914.44 | -2,213.38 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 73.88 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.309 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,158 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 28.13 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.10% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.559 |
Total Debt | 10,417 |
Total Equity | 85,553.04 |
Total Capital | 95,970.04 |
Debt Weighting | 10.85 |
Equity Weighting | 89.15 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 15,451 | 17,772 | 21,454 | 25,371 | 27,518 | 31,814.92 | 36,782.80 | 42,526.41 | 49,166.88 | 56,844.26 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 3,229 | 4,025 | 6,463 | 5,596 | 4,987 | 7,244.29 | 8,375.49 | 9,683.31 | 11,195.36 | 12,943.51 |
EBIT | 2,453 | 3,113 | 5,274 | 4,331 | 3,670 | 5,623.77 | 6,501.91 | 7,517.18 | 8,690.99 | 10,048.08 |
Tax Rate | 13.43% | 17.98% | 17.04% | -1.71% | 28.13% | 14.97% | 14.97% | 14.97% | 14.97% | 14.97% |
EBIAT | 2,123.66 | 2,553.32 | 4,375.39 | 4,404.96 | 2,637.47 | 4,781.67 | 5,528.32 | 6,391.57 | 7,389.61 | 8,543.49 |
Depreciation | 776 | 912 | 1,189 | 1,265 | 1,317 | 1,620.53 | 1,873.57 | 2,166.13 | 2,504.37 | 2,895.43 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -4,027 | -9,830 | -5,023 | -2,964 | -6,057.36 | -7,933.69 | -9,172.54 | -10,604.82 | -12,260.76 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | 2,916 | 10,911 | 3,368 | 1,195 | 7,299.86 | 7,422.23 | 8,581.20 | 9,921.15 | 11,470.33 |
Capital Expenditure | -823 | -704 | -866 | -908 | -706 | -1,238.80 | -1,432.24 | -1,655.88 | -1,914.44 | -2,213.38 |
UFCF | 2,076.66 | 1,650.32 | 5,779.39 | 3,106.96 | 1,479.47 | 6,405.89 | 5,458.19 | 6,310.48 | 7,295.86 | 8,435.11 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 5,890.48 | 4,615.20 | 4,906.53 | 5,216.26 | 5,545.55 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 26,174.02 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.75 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 8,603.81 |
Terminal Value | 127,463.83 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 83,799.35 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 109,973.37 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,641 |
Equity Value | 107,332.37 |
Shares Outstanding | 1,158 |
Equity Value Per Share | 92.69 |