Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Quantum Corporation (QMCO)
$0.995
+0.01 (+1.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 437.68 | 402.68 | 402.95 | 349.58 | 372.83 | 359.29 | 346.24 | 333.67 | 321.55 | 309.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -29.82 | -15.06 | 25.23 | -2 | -9.63 | -5.35 | -5.16 | -4.97 | -4.79 | -4.62 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -34.79 | -19.33 | 20.94 | -7.70 | -19.05 | -10.68 | -10.29 | -9.92 | -9.56 | -9.21 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 4.97 | 4.27 | 4.29 | 5.70 | 9.42 | 5.33 | 5.13 | 4.95 | 4.77 | 4.60 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 10.87 | 10.79 | 6.44 | 27.43 | 5.21 | 11.50 | 11.08 | 10.68 | 10.29 | 9.92 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 96.35 | 86.83 | 70.37 | 73.10 | 69.35 | 72.26 | 69.63 | 67.10 | 64.67 | 62.32 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 56.32 | 37.51 | 49.70 | 47.89 | 57.80 | 45.79 | 44.12 | 42.52 | 40.98 | 39.49 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 62.65 | 37.39 | 36.95 | 35.25 | 34.22 | 37.39 | 36.03 | 34.72 | 33.46 | 32.25 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.58 | -2.71 | -2.63 | -6.93 | -6.32 | -4.02 | -3.87 | -3.73 | -3.60 | -3.47 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.995 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.538 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 67.78 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -4.33 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 9.79% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 15.509 |
| Total Debt | 121.45 |
| Total Equity | 67.44 |
| Total Capital | 188.89 |
| Debt Weighting | 64.30 |
| Equity Weighting | 35.70 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 437.68 | 402.68 | 402.95 | 349.58 | 372.83 | 359.29 | 346.24 | 333.67 | 321.55 | 309.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -29.82 | -15.06 | 25.23 | -2 | -9.63 | -5.35 | -5.16 | -4.97 | -4.79 | -4.62 |
| EBIT | -34.79 | -19.33 | 20.94 | -7.70 | -19.05 | -10.68 | -10.29 | -9.92 | -9.56 | -9.21 |
| Tax Rate | 6.70% | -5.88% | -18.22% | -0.68% | -4.33% | -4.48% | -4.48% | -4.48% | -4.48% | -4.48% |
| EBIAT | -32.46 | -20.46 | 24.76 | -7.75 | -19.88 | -11.16 | -10.75 | -10.36 | -9.99 | -9.62 |
| Depreciation | 4.97 | 4.27 | 4.29 | 5.70 | 9.42 | 5.33 | 5.13 | 4.95 | 4.77 | 4.60 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 9.52 | 16.46 | -2.73 | 3.75 | -2.90 | 2.62 | 2.53 | 2.44 | 2.35 |
| Inventories | - | 18.81 | -12.19 | 1.81 | -9.91 | 12.01 | 1.66 | 1.60 | 1.54 | 1.49 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -25.25 | -0.45 | -1.70 | -1.02 | 3.17 | -1.36 | -1.31 | -1.26 | -1.22 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.58 | -2.71 | -2.63 | -6.93 | -6.32 | -4.02 | -3.87 | -3.73 | -3.60 | -3.47 |
| UFCF | -30.07 | -15.83 | 30.24 | -11.61 | -23.96 | 2.43 | -6.56 | -6.32 | -6.10 | -5.87 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 2.17 | -5.25 | -4.52 | -3.90 | -3.36 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -14.85 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.83 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -5.99 |
| Terminal Value | -60.95 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -34.85 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -49.70 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 116.24 |
| Equity Value | -165.94 |
| Shares Outstanding | 67.78 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -2.45 |