Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ferrari N.V. (RACE)

$253.72

+5.95 (+2.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 43.70 | 253.72 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,416.893,420.323,766.613,459.794,270.894,543.414,833.315,141.715,469.795,818.80
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,004.761,089.741,224.421,142.831,534.251,478.691,573.041,673.411,780.181,893.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 744.15800.99872.47716.191,078.261,038.691,104.971,175.471,250.481,330.27
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 260.61288.75351.95426.64455.99439.99468.07497.93529.70563.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 651.70797.05899.931,363.851,346.081,246.771,326.321,410.951,500.981,596.75
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 994.931,245.861,267.681,167.931,404.551,506.981,603.141,705.431,814.251,930.01
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 393.77391.06420.05460.62540.57545.94580.77617.83657.25699.19
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 607.51653.75711.54713.81797.83864.12919.26977.911,040.311,106.69
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -391.41-638.34-705.61-709-737.14-786.95-837.16-890.58-947.41-1,007.86
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 253.72
Beta 0.950
Diluted Shares Outstanding 184.81
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.29
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.001
Total Debt 2,630.01
Total Equity 46,888.98
Total Capital 49,518.99
Debt Weighting 5.31
Equity Weighting 94.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,416.893,420.323,766.613,459.794,270.894,543.414,833.315,141.715,469.795,818.80
EBITDA 1,004.761,089.741,224.421,142.831,534.251,478.691,573.041,673.411,780.181,893.77
EBIT 744.15800.99872.47716.191,078.261,038.691,104.971,175.471,250.481,330.27
Tax Rate 28.25%2.27%20.51%8.88%20.29%16.04%16.04%16.04%16.04%16.04%
EBIAT 533.96782.77693.52652.61859.49872.09927.73986.931,049.901,116.89
Depreciation 260.61288.75351.95426.64455.99439.99468.07497.93529.70563.50
Accounts Receivable --250.93-21.8299.76-236.63-102.43-96.16-102.29-108.82-115.76
Inventories -2.70-28.99-40.57-79.96-5.36-34.83-37.06-39.42-41.94
Accounts Payable -46.2557.792.2784.0366.2955.1458.6662.4066.38
Capital Expenditure -391.41-638.34-705.61-709-737.14-786.95-837.16-890.58-947.41-1,007.86
UFCF 403.15231.20346.83431.71345.77483.62482.78513.59546.36581.22
WACC
PV UFCF 449.30416.68411.81406.99402.23
SUM PV UFCF 2,087

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.64
Free cash flow (t + 1) 592.84
Terminal Value 10,511.40
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,274.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 9,361.31
Net Debt 1,285.87
Equity Value 8,075.45
Shares Outstanding 184.81
Equity Value Per Share 43.70