Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ferrari N.V. (RACE)

$253.72

+5.95 (+2.40%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 43.70 | 253.72 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	3,416.89	3,420.32	3,766.61	3,459.79	4,270.89	4,543.41	4,833.31	5,141.71	5,469.79	5,818.80
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,004.76	1,089.74	1,224.42	1,142.83	1,534.25	1,478.69	1,573.04	1,673.41	1,780.18	1,893.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	744.15	800.99	872.47	716.19	1,078.26	1,038.69	1,104.97	1,175.47	1,250.48	1,330.27
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	260.61	288.75	351.95	426.64	455.99	439.99	468.07	497.93	529.70	563.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	651.70	797.05	899.93	1,363.85	1,346.08	1,246.77	1,326.32	1,410.95	1,500.98	1,596.75
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	994.93	1,245.86	1,267.68	1,167.93	1,404.55	1,506.98	1,603.14	1,705.43	1,814.25	1,930.01
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	393.77	391.06	420.05	460.62	540.57	545.94	580.77	617.83	657.25	699.19
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	607.51	653.75	711.54	713.81	797.83	864.12	919.26	977.91	1,040.31	1,106.69
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-391.41	-638.34	-705.61	-709	-737.14	-786.95	-837.16	-890.58	-947.41	-1,007.86
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 253.72
Beta	0.950
Diluted Shares Outstanding	184.81
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	20.29
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.001
Total Debt	2,630.01
Total Equity	46,888.98
Total Capital	49,518.99
Debt Weighting	5.31
Equity Weighting	94.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	3,416.89	3,420.32	3,766.61	3,459.79	4,270.89	4,543.41	4,833.31	5,141.71	5,469.79	5,818.80
EBITDA	1,004.76	1,089.74	1,224.42	1,142.83	1,534.25	1,478.69	1,573.04	1,673.41	1,780.18	1,893.77
EBIT	744.15	800.99	872.47	716.19	1,078.26	1,038.69	1,104.97	1,175.47	1,250.48	1,330.27
Tax Rate	28.25%	2.27%	20.51%	8.88%	20.29%	16.04%	16.04%	16.04%	16.04%	16.04%
EBIAT	533.96	782.77	693.52	652.61	859.49	872.09	927.73	986.93	1,049.90	1,116.89
Depreciation	260.61	288.75	351.95	426.64	455.99	439.99	468.07	497.93	529.70	563.50
Accounts Receivable	-	-250.93	-21.82	99.76	-236.63	-102.43	-96.16	-102.29	-108.82	-115.76
Inventories	-	2.70	-28.99	-40.57	-79.96	-5.36	-34.83	-37.06	-39.42	-41.94
Accounts Payable	-	46.25	57.79	2.27	84.03	66.29	55.14	58.66	62.40	66.38
Capital Expenditure	-391.41	-638.34	-705.61	-709	-737.14	-786.95	-837.16	-890.58	-947.41	-1,007.86
UFCF	403.15	231.20	346.83	431.71	345.77	483.62	482.78	513.59	546.36	581.22
WACC
PV UFCF						449.30	416.68	411.81	406.99	402.23
SUM PV UFCF										2,087

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.64
Free cash flow (t + 1)	592.84
Terminal Value	10,511.40
Present Value of Terminal Value	7,274.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	9,361.31
Net Debt	1,285.87
Equity Value	8,075.45
Shares Outstanding	184.81
Equity Value Per Share	43.70