Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL)

$2.66

-0.07 (-2.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -44.46 | 2.66 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 316.52229.96108.45203.05364.75443.80539.97656.99799.37972.60
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -18.81-28.82-33.54-10.954.16-47.63-57.95-70.51-85.79-104.38
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -30.83-51.74-42.74-15.260.02-70.26-85.49-104.02-126.56-153.98
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 12.0222.929.204.304.1422.6427.5433.5140.7749.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 63.0966.2654.0526.2437.91108.20131.64160.17194.88237.12
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 18.226.9913.9149.3917.5145.0454.8066.6881.1398.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 64.5625.0938.8356.0164.3299.71121.31147.60179.59218.51
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 34.7511.7118.6541.1948.4559.3372.1887.83106.86130.01
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -39.53-5.57-9.85-2.29-7.82-24.20-29.45-35.83-43.59-53.04
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.66
Beta 2.070
Diluted Shares Outstanding 24.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -6.33
After-tax Cost of Debt 19.98%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.397
Total Debt 127.26
Total Equity 66.07
Total Capital 193.33
Debt Weighting 65.83
Equity Weighting 34.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 316.52229.96108.45203.05364.75443.80539.97656.99799.37972.60
EBITDA -18.81-28.82-33.54-10.954.16-47.63-57.95-70.51-85.79-104.38
EBIT -30.83-51.74-42.74-15.260.02-70.26-85.49-104.02-126.56-153.98
Tax Rate -33.44%0.15%-0.23%-3.53%-6.33%-8.67%-8.67%-8.67%-8.67%-8.67%
EBIAT -41.14-51.67-42.84-15.800.02-76.36-92.91-113.04-137.54-167.34
Depreciation 12.0222.929.204.304.1422.6427.5433.5140.7749.61
Accounts Receivable -11.23-6.92-35.4831.87-27.53-9.76-11.88-14.45-17.58
Inventories -39.47-13.74-17.18-8.30-35.39-21.61-26.29-31.99-38.92
Accounts Payable --23.046.9422.537.2610.8812.8615.6419.0323.16
Capital Expenditure -39.53-5.57-9.85-2.29-7.82-24.20-29.45-35.83-43.59-53.04
UFCF -68.65-6.65-57.20-43.9127.17-129.96-113.32-137.88-167.76-204.11
WACC
PV UFCF -110.07-81.29-83.77-86.32-88.96
SUM PV UFCF -450.41

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 18.07
Free cash flow (t + 1) -208.20
Terminal Value -1,295.56
Present Value of Terminal Value -564.62

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,015.04
Net Debt 89.35
Equity Value -1,104.38
Shares Outstanding 24.84
Equity Value Per Share -44.46