Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL)

$2.88

+0.01 (+0.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -68.16 | 2.88 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 316.52229.96108.45203.05364.75443.80539.97656.99799.37972.60
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -18.24-51.77-72.82-22.41-6.98-96.19-117.03-142.40-173.25-210.80
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -30.26-74.69-82.02-26.72-11.11-118.83-144.58-175.91-214.03-260.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 12.0222.929.204.304.1422.6427.5433.5140.7749.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 63.0966.2654.0526.2437.91108.20131.64160.17194.88237.12
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 18.226.9913.9149.399.5743.1152.4563.8277.6594.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 64.5625.0938.8356.0164.3299.71121.31147.60179.59218.51
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 34.7511.7118.6541.193.3948.3658.8471.5987.11105.99
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -39.53-5.57-9.85-2.29-7.82-24.20-29.45-35.83-43.59-53.04
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.88
Beta 2.097
Diluted Shares Outstanding 24.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -6.33
After-tax Cost of Debt 19.98%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.589
Total Debt 127.26
Total Equity 71.53
Total Capital 198.80
Debt Weighting 64.02
Equity Weighting 35.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 316.52229.96108.45203.05364.75443.80539.97656.99799.37972.60
EBITDA -18.24-51.77-72.82-22.41-6.98-96.19-117.03-142.40-173.25-210.80
EBIT -30.26-74.69-82.02-26.72-11.11-118.83-144.58-175.91-214.03-260.41
Tax Rate -33.44%0.23%1.70%-3.53%-6.33%-8.27%-8.27%-8.27%-8.27%-8.27%
EBIAT -40.37-74.52-80.63-27.66-11.82-128.66-156.54-190.46-231.74-281.96
Depreciation 12.0222.929.204.304.1422.6427.5433.5140.7749.61
Accounts Receivable -11.23-6.92-35.4839.82-33.54-9.34-11.37-13.83-16.83
Inventories -39.47-13.74-17.18-8.30-35.39-21.61-26.29-31.99-38.92
Accounts Payable --23.046.9422.53-37.7944.9710.4812.7515.5218.88
Capital Expenditure -39.53-5.57-9.85-2.29-7.82-24.20-29.45-35.83-43.59-53.04
UFCF -67.89-29.51-94.99-55.77-21.78-154.18-178.91-217.68-264.86-322.26
WACC
PV UFCF -131.02-129.19-133.57-138.10-142.79
SUM PV UFCF -674.67

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 17.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) -328.70
Terminal Value -2,096.30
Present Value of Terminal Value -928.84

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,603.51
Net Debt 89.35
Equity Value -1,692.86
Shares Outstanding 24.84
Equity Value Per Share -68.16