Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL)
$2.66
-0.07 (-2.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 316.52 | 229.96 | 108.45 | 203.05 | 364.75 | 443.80 | 539.97 | 656.99 | 799.37 | 972.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -18.81 | -28.82 | -33.54 | -10.95 | 4.16 | -47.63 | -57.95 | -70.51 | -85.79 | -104.38 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -30.83 | -51.74 | -42.74 | -15.26 | 0.02 | -70.26 | -85.49 | -104.02 | -126.56 | -153.98 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 12.02 | 22.92 | 9.20 | 4.30 | 4.14 | 22.64 | 27.54 | 33.51 | 40.77 | 49.61 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 63.09 | 66.26 | 54.05 | 26.24 | 37.91 | 108.20 | 131.64 | 160.17 | 194.88 | 237.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 18.22 | 6.99 | 13.91 | 49.39 | 17.51 | 45.04 | 54.80 | 66.68 | 81.13 | 98.71 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 64.56 | 25.09 | 38.83 | 56.01 | 64.32 | 99.71 | 121.31 | 147.60 | 179.59 | 218.51 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 34.75 | 11.71 | 18.65 | 41.19 | 48.45 | 59.33 | 72.18 | 87.83 | 106.86 | 130.01 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -39.53 | -5.57 | -9.85 | -2.29 | -7.82 | -24.20 | -29.45 | -35.83 | -43.59 | -53.04 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.66 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.070 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 24.84 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -6.33 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 19.98% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.397 |
| Total Debt | 127.26 |
| Total Equity | 66.07 |
| Total Capital | 193.33 |
| Debt Weighting | 65.83 |
| Equity Weighting | 34.17 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 316.52 | 229.96 | 108.45 | 203.05 | 364.75 | 443.80 | 539.97 | 656.99 | 799.37 | 972.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -18.81 | -28.82 | -33.54 | -10.95 | 4.16 | -47.63 | -57.95 | -70.51 | -85.79 | -104.38 |
| EBIT | -30.83 | -51.74 | -42.74 | -15.26 | 0.02 | -70.26 | -85.49 | -104.02 | -126.56 | -153.98 |
| Tax Rate | -33.44% | 0.15% | -0.23% | -3.53% | -6.33% | -8.67% | -8.67% | -8.67% | -8.67% | -8.67% |
| EBIAT | -41.14 | -51.67 | -42.84 | -15.80 | 0.02 | -76.36 | -92.91 | -113.04 | -137.54 | -167.34 |
| Depreciation | 12.02 | 22.92 | 9.20 | 4.30 | 4.14 | 22.64 | 27.54 | 33.51 | 40.77 | 49.61 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 11.23 | -6.92 | -35.48 | 31.87 | -27.53 | -9.76 | -11.88 | -14.45 | -17.58 |
| Inventories | - | 39.47 | -13.74 | -17.18 | -8.30 | -35.39 | -21.61 | -26.29 | -31.99 | -38.92 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -23.04 | 6.94 | 22.53 | 7.26 | 10.88 | 12.86 | 15.64 | 19.03 | 23.16 |
| Capital Expenditure | -39.53 | -5.57 | -9.85 | -2.29 | -7.82 | -24.20 | -29.45 | -35.83 | -43.59 | -53.04 |
| UFCF | -68.65 | -6.65 | -57.20 | -43.91 | 27.17 | -129.96 | -113.32 | -137.88 | -167.76 | -204.11 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -110.07 | -81.29 | -83.77 | -86.32 | -88.96 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -450.41 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 18.07 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -208.20 |
| Terminal Value | -1,295.56 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -564.62 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,015.04 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 89.35 |
| Equity Value | -1,104.38 |
| Shares Outstanding | 24.84 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -44.46 |