Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
FreightCar America, Inc. (RAIL)
$2.88
+0.01 (+0.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 316.52 | 229.96 | 108.45 | 203.05 | 364.75 | 443.80 | 539.97 | 656.99 | 799.37 | 972.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -18.24 | -51.77 | -72.82 | -22.41 | -6.98 | -96.19 | -117.03 | -142.40 | -173.25 | -210.80 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -30.26 | -74.69 | -82.02 | -26.72 | -11.11 | -118.83 | -144.58 | -175.91 | -214.03 | -260.41 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 12.02 | 22.92 | 9.20 | 4.30 | 4.14 | 22.64 | 27.54 | 33.51 | 40.77 | 49.61 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 63.09 | 66.26 | 54.05 | 26.24 | 37.91 | 108.20 | 131.64 | 160.17 | 194.88 | 237.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 18.22 | 6.99 | 13.91 | 49.39 | 9.57 | 43.11 | 52.45 | 63.82 | 77.65 | 94.48 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 64.56 | 25.09 | 38.83 | 56.01 | 64.32 | 99.71 | 121.31 | 147.60 | 179.59 | 218.51 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 34.75 | 11.71 | 18.65 | 41.19 | 3.39 | 48.36 | 58.84 | 71.59 | 87.11 | 105.99 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -39.53 | -5.57 | -9.85 | -2.29 | -7.82 | -24.20 | -29.45 | -35.83 | -43.59 | -53.04 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.88 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.097 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 24.84 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -6.33 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 19.98% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 13.589 |
| Total Debt | 127.26 |
| Total Equity | 71.53 |
| Total Capital | 198.80 |
| Debt Weighting | 64.02 |
| Equity Weighting | 35.98 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 316.52 | 229.96 | 108.45 | 203.05 | 364.75 | 443.80 | 539.97 | 656.99 | 799.37 | 972.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -18.24 | -51.77 | -72.82 | -22.41 | -6.98 | -96.19 | -117.03 | -142.40 | -173.25 | -210.80 |
| EBIT | -30.26 | -74.69 | -82.02 | -26.72 | -11.11 | -118.83 | -144.58 | -175.91 | -214.03 | -260.41 |
| Tax Rate | -33.44% | 0.23% | 1.70% | -3.53% | -6.33% | -8.27% | -8.27% | -8.27% | -8.27% | -8.27% |
| EBIAT | -40.37 | -74.52 | -80.63 | -27.66 | -11.82 | -128.66 | -156.54 | -190.46 | -231.74 | -281.96 |
| Depreciation | 12.02 | 22.92 | 9.20 | 4.30 | 4.14 | 22.64 | 27.54 | 33.51 | 40.77 | 49.61 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 11.23 | -6.92 | -35.48 | 39.82 | -33.54 | -9.34 | -11.37 | -13.83 | -16.83 |
| Inventories | - | 39.47 | -13.74 | -17.18 | -8.30 | -35.39 | -21.61 | -26.29 | -31.99 | -38.92 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -23.04 | 6.94 | 22.53 | -37.79 | 44.97 | 10.48 | 12.75 | 15.52 | 18.88 |
| Capital Expenditure | -39.53 | -5.57 | -9.85 | -2.29 | -7.82 | -24.20 | -29.45 | -35.83 | -43.59 | -53.04 |
| UFCF | -67.89 | -29.51 | -94.99 | -55.77 | -21.78 | -154.18 | -178.91 | -217.68 | -264.86 | -322.26 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -131.02 | -129.19 | -133.57 | -138.10 | -142.79 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -674.67 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 17.68 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -328.70 |
| Terminal Value | -2,096.30 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -928.84 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,603.51 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 89.35 |
| Equity Value | -1,692.86 |
| Shares Outstanding | 24.84 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -68.16 |