Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Stingray Group Inc. (RAY-B.TO)
$5.51
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 126.95 | 212.65 | 306.72 | 249.47 | 282.63 | 357.78 | 452.92 | 573.36 | 725.82 | 918.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 25.01 | 28.10 | 76.32 | 117.53 | 92.14 | 98.40 | 124.57 | 157.69 | 199.63 | 252.71 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 3.73 | -4.92 | 33.12 | 78.84 | 56.60 | 45.12 | 57.11 | 72.30 | 91.53 | 115.87 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 21.29 | 33.02 | 43.20 | 38.69 | 35.54 | 53.29 | 67.45 | 85.39 | 108.10 | 136.84 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 3.36 | 4.67 | 2.51 | 9.04 | 14.56 | 10.33 | 13.08 | 16.56 | 20.96 | 26.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 36.43 | 69.83 | 73.76 | 64.91 | 66.76 | 96.77 | 122.50 | 155.07 | 196.31 | 248.51 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1.78 | 2.62 | 3.34 | 3.21 | 5.20 | 4.91 | 6.21 | 7.86 | 9.95 | 12.60 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 7.91 | 13.33 | 17.98 | 15.23 | 18.37 | 22.16 | 28.05 | 35.51 | 44.95 | 56.91 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -8.96 | -20.56 | -14.38 | -13.43 | -17.05 | -23.49 | -29.74 | -37.65 | -47.66 | -60.33 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 5.51 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.802 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 71.46 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.31 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.73% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.303 |
| Total Debt | 411.96 |
| Total Equity | 393.76 |
| Total Capital | 805.73 |
| Debt Weighting | 51.13 |
| Equity Weighting | 48.87 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 126.95 | 212.65 | 306.72 | 249.47 | 282.63 | 357.78 | 452.92 | 573.36 | 725.82 | 918.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 25.01 | 28.10 | 76.32 | 117.53 | 92.14 | 98.40 | 124.57 | 157.69 | 199.63 | 252.71 |
| EBIT | 3.73 | -4.92 | 33.12 | 78.84 | 56.60 | 45.12 | 57.11 | 72.30 | 91.53 | 115.87 |
| Tax Rate | -0.57% | 21.21% | 10.80% | 26.14% | 21.31% | 15.78% | 15.78% | 15.78% | 15.78% | 15.78% |
| EBIAT | 3.75 | -3.88 | 29.54 | 58.24 | 44.54 | 38 | 48.10 | 60.89 | 77.09 | 97.58 |
| Depreciation | 21.29 | 33.02 | 43.20 | 38.69 | 35.54 | 53.29 | 67.45 | 85.39 | 108.10 | 136.84 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -33.40 | -3.93 | 8.85 | -1.85 | -30 | -25.73 | -32.57 | -41.24 | -52.20 |
| Inventories | - | -0.84 | -0.71 | 0.12 | -1.99 | 0.29 | -1.30 | -1.65 | -2.09 | -2.65 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 5.43 | 4.65 | -2.76 | 3.15 | 3.79 | 5.89 | 7.46 | 9.44 | 11.95 |
| Capital Expenditure | -8.96 | -20.56 | -14.38 | -13.43 | -17.05 | -23.49 | -29.74 | -37.65 | -47.66 | -60.33 |
| UFCF | 16.07 | -20.23 | 58.37 | 89.71 | 62.35 | 41.87 | 64.67 | 81.87 | 103.64 | 131.20 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 39.89 | 58.70 | 70.79 | 85.37 | 102.95 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 357.68 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.97 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 133.83 |
| Terminal Value | 4,506 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,535.62 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 3,893.30 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 397.40 |
| Equity Value | 3,495.90 |
| Shares Outstanding | 71.46 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 48.92 |