Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC)
$208.27
+8.76 (+4.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 674.95 | 702.52 | 727.46 | 608.98 | 942.94 | 1,051.81 | 1,173.26 | 1,308.74 | 1,459.85 | 1,628.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 155.72 | 160.92 | 187.31 | 144.23 | 182.75 | 241.48 | 269.36 | 300.46 | 335.16 | 373.85 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 127.36 | 131.26 | 155.89 | 111.49 | 117.22 | 188.74 | 210.53 | 234.84 | 261.96 | 292.21 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 28.36 | 29.66 | 31.42 | 32.74 | 65.53 | 52.74 | 58.83 | 65.62 | 73.19 | 81.65 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 54.16 | 29.88 | 103.26 | 241.34 | 182.86 | 179.85 | 200.61 | 223.78 | 249.62 | 278.44 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 116.89 | 130.73 | 131.60 | 110.47 | 247.49 | 207.01 | 230.91 | 257.57 | 287.31 | 320.49 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 306.12 | 335 | 367.49 | 364.15 | 516.14 | 542.93 | 605.62 | 675.55 | 753.55 | 840.56 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 45.19 | 49.59 | 51.04 | 36.34 | 158.61 | 91.63 | 102.21 | 114.01 | 127.17 | 141.86 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -27.98 | -41.35 | -37.30 | -11.77 | -29.76 | -42.59 | -47.51 | -52.99 | -59.11 | -65.94 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 208.27 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.426 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 27.21 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 39.52 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.45% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.471 |
Total Debt | 1,733.08 |
Total Equity | 5,667.91 |
Total Capital | 7,400.99 |
Debt Weighting | 23.42 |
Equity Weighting | 76.58 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 674.95 | 702.52 | 727.46 | 608.98 | 942.94 | 1,051.81 | 1,173.26 | 1,308.74 | 1,459.85 | 1,628.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 155.72 | 160.92 | 187.31 | 144.23 | 182.75 | 241.48 | 269.36 | 300.46 | 335.16 | 373.85 |
EBIT | 127.36 | 131.26 | 155.89 | 111.49 | 117.22 | 188.74 | 210.53 | 234.84 | 261.96 | 292.21 |
Tax Rate | 27.29% | 16.57% | 18.23% | 18.56% | 39.52% | 24.03% | 24.03% | 24.03% | 24.03% | 24.03% |
EBIAT | 92.60 | 109.51 | 127.47 | 90.80 | 70.90 | 143.38 | 159.93 | 178.40 | 199 | 221.98 |
Depreciation | 28.36 | 29.66 | 31.42 | 32.74 | 65.53 | 52.74 | 58.83 | 65.62 | 73.19 | 81.65 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -13.84 | -0.86 | 21.13 | -137.02 | 40.48 | -23.90 | -26.66 | -29.74 | -33.17 |
Inventories | - | -28.88 | -32.49 | 3.35 | -151.99 | -26.79 | -62.69 | -69.93 | -78 | -87.01 |
Accounts Payable | - | 4.40 | 1.45 | -14.70 | 122.27 | -66.98 | 10.58 | 11.80 | 13.16 | 14.68 |
Capital Expenditure | -27.98 | -41.35 | -37.30 | -11.77 | -29.76 | -42.59 | -47.51 | -52.99 | -59.11 | -65.94 |
UFCF | 92.98 | 59.50 | 89.68 | 121.54 | -60.07 | 100.24 | 95.24 | 106.23 | 118.50 | 132.18 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 92.50 | 81.11 | 83.49 | 85.95 | 88.48 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 431.53 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.36 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 134.83 |
Terminal Value | 2,119.91 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,418.97 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,850.50 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,550.22 |
Equity Value | 300.28 |
Shares Outstanding | 27.21 |
Equity Value Per Share | 11.03 |