Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC)

$208.27

+8.76 (+4.39%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 11.03 | 208.27 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	674.95	702.52	727.46	608.98	942.94	1,051.81	1,173.26	1,308.74	1,459.85	1,628.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	155.72	160.92	187.31	144.23	182.75	241.48	269.36	300.46	335.16	373.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	127.36	131.26	155.89	111.49	117.22	188.74	210.53	234.84	261.96	292.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	28.36	29.66	31.42	32.74	65.53	52.74	58.83	65.62	73.19	81.65
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	54.16	29.88	103.26	241.34	182.86	179.85	200.61	223.78	249.62	278.44
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	116.89	130.73	131.60	110.47	247.49	207.01	230.91	257.57	287.31	320.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	306.12	335	367.49	364.15	516.14	542.93	605.62	675.55	753.55	840.56
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	45.19	49.59	51.04	36.34	158.61	91.63	102.21	114.01	127.17	141.86
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-27.98	-41.35	-37.30	-11.77	-29.76	-42.59	-47.51	-52.99	-59.11	-65.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 208.27
Beta	1.426
Diluted Shares Outstanding	27.21
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	39.52
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.45%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.471
Total Debt	1,733.08
Total Equity	5,667.91
Total Capital	7,400.99
Debt Weighting	23.42
Equity Weighting	76.58
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	674.95	702.52	727.46	608.98	942.94	1,051.81	1,173.26	1,308.74	1,459.85	1,628.41
EBITDA	155.72	160.92	187.31	144.23	182.75	241.48	269.36	300.46	335.16	373.85
EBIT	127.36	131.26	155.89	111.49	117.22	188.74	210.53	234.84	261.96	292.21
Tax Rate	27.29%	16.57%	18.23%	18.56%	39.52%	24.03%	24.03%	24.03%	24.03%	24.03%
EBIAT	92.60	109.51	127.47	90.80	70.90	143.38	159.93	178.40	199	221.98
Depreciation	28.36	29.66	31.42	32.74	65.53	52.74	58.83	65.62	73.19	81.65
Accounts Receivable	-	-13.84	-0.86	21.13	-137.02	40.48	-23.90	-26.66	-29.74	-33.17
Inventories	-	-28.88	-32.49	3.35	-151.99	-26.79	-62.69	-69.93	-78	-87.01
Accounts Payable	-	4.40	1.45	-14.70	122.27	-66.98	10.58	11.80	13.16	14.68
Capital Expenditure	-27.98	-41.35	-37.30	-11.77	-29.76	-42.59	-47.51	-52.99	-59.11	-65.94
UFCF	92.98	59.50	89.68	121.54	-60.07	100.24	95.24	106.23	118.50	132.18
WACC
PV UFCF						92.50	81.11	83.49	85.95	88.48
SUM PV UFCF										431.53

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.36
Free cash flow (t + 1)	134.83
Terminal Value	2,119.91
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,418.97

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,850.50
Net Debt	1,550.22
Equity Value	300.28
Shares Outstanding	27.21
Equity Value Per Share	11.03