Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC)

$234.13

+0.95 (+0.41%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -56.79 | 234.13 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	702.52	727.46	608.98	942.94	1,469.29	1,828.99	2,276.74	2,834.10	3,527.92	4,391.58
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	131.26	156.02	111.49	129.23	286.37	335.20	417.26	519.41	646.56	804.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	101.61	124.60	78.74	63.70	170.97	230.14	286.48	356.61	443.91	552.58
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	29.66	31.42	32.74	65.53	115.40	105.06	130.78	162.80	202.65	252.27
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	29.88	103.25	241.34	182.86	65.40	299.66	373.02	464.34	578.02	719.52
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	130.74	128.99	110.47	247.49	239.60	354.95	441.85	550.02	684.67	852.28
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	335	367.49	364.15	516.14	587.20	924.38	1,150.67	1,432.36	1,783.02	2,219.51
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	49.59	51.04	36.34	158.61	146.80	171.39	213.35	265.57	330.59	411.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-41.35	-37.30	-11.77	-29.76	-42	-69.36	-86.33	-107.47	-133.78	-166.53
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 234.13
Beta	1.411
Diluted Shares Outstanding	29.07
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	20.52
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.23%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.232
Total Debt	1,441.70
Total Equity	6,806.73
Total Capital	8,248.43
Debt Weighting	17.48
Equity Weighting	82.52
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	702.52	727.46	608.98	942.94	1,469.29	1,828.99	2,276.74	2,834.10	3,527.92	4,391.58
EBITDA	131.26	156.02	111.49	129.23	286.37	335.20	417.26	519.41	646.56	804.85
EBIT	101.61	124.60	78.74	63.70	170.97	230.14	286.48	356.61	443.91	552.58
Tax Rate	16.57%	18.23%	18.56%	37.63%	20.52%	22.30%	22.30%	22.30%	22.30%	22.30%
EBIAT	84.77	101.89	64.13	39.73	135.89	178.81	222.59	277.08	344.91	429.34
Depreciation	29.66	31.42	32.74	65.53	115.40	105.06	130.78	162.80	202.65	252.27
Accounts Receivable	-	1.74	18.52	-137.01	7.89	-115.35	-86.90	-108.17	-134.65	-167.61
Inventories	-	-32.49	3.35	-151.99	-71.06	-337.18	-226.29	-281.69	-350.65	-436.50
Accounts Payable	-	1.45	-14.70	122.27	-11.81	24.59	41.96	52.23	65.01	80.93
Capital Expenditure	-41.35	-37.30	-11.77	-29.76	-42	-69.36	-86.33	-107.47	-133.78	-166.53
UFCF	73.08	66.70	92.27	-91.24	134.32	-213.42	-4.20	-5.23	-6.51	-8.10
WACC
PV UFCF						-194	-3.47	-3.93	-4.44	-5.03
SUM PV UFCF										-210.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.01
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-8.26
Terminal Value	-103.12
Present Value of Terminal Value	-64

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-274.87
Net Debt	1,376.30
Equity Value	-1,651.17
Shares Outstanding	29.07
Equity Value Per Share	-56.79