Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Radian Group Inc. (RDN)
$20.93
+0.56 (+2.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,273.01 | 1,526.96 | 1,438.62 | 1,329.93 | 1,190.73 | 1,179.24 | 1,167.87 | 1,156.60 | 1,145.44 | 1,134.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 814.77 | 978.03 | 622.32 | 924.65 | 489.96 | 665.06 | 658.64 | 652.29 | 646 | 639.77 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 745.68 | 905.30 | 550.59 | 849.18 | 413.38 | 600.71 | 594.92 | 589.18 | 583.50 | 577.87 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 69.09 | 72.73 | 71.73 | 75.47 | 76.58 | 64.34 | 63.72 | 63.11 | 62.50 | 61.90 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 4,645.37 | 5,300.03 | 6,429.26 | 6,219.73 | 5,749.67 | 4,975.12 | 4,927.13 | 4,879.60 | 4,832.54 | 4,785.92 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 137.56 | 110.61 | 194.50 | 191.91 | 119.83 | 132.22 | 130.95 | 129.69 | 128.43 | 127.20 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -26.01 | -27.63 | -17.02 | -12.60 | -17.67 | -17.61 | -17.44 | -17.27 | -17.11 | -16.94 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 20.93 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.162 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 190.26 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 51.75 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.41% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.968 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 3,982.20 |
| Total Capital | 3,982.20 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,273.01 | 1,526.96 | 1,438.62 | 1,329.93 | 1,190.73 | 1,179.24 | 1,167.87 | 1,156.60 | 1,145.44 | 1,134.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 814.77 | 978.03 | 622.32 | 924.65 | 489.96 | 665.06 | 658.64 | 652.29 | 646 | 639.77 |
| EBIT | 745.68 | 905.30 | 550.59 | 849.18 | 413.38 | 600.71 | 594.92 | 589.18 | 583.50 | 577.87 |
| Tax Rate | 11.43% | 20.81% | 17.90% | 21.46% | 51.75% | 24.67% | 24.67% | 24.67% | 24.67% | 24.67% |
| EBIAT | 660.48 | 716.90 | 452.04 | 666.91 | 199.46 | 452.52 | 448.15 | 443.83 | 439.55 | 435.31 |
| Depreciation | 69.09 | 72.73 | 71.73 | 75.47 | 76.58 | 64.34 | 63.72 | 63.11 | 62.50 | 61.90 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 26.95 | -83.89 | 2.58 | 72.08 | -12.39 | 1.28 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.24 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -26.01 | -27.63 | -17.02 | -12.60 | -17.67 | -17.61 | -17.44 | -17.27 | -17.11 | -16.94 |
| UFCF | 703.56 | 788.96 | 422.86 | 732.36 | 330.44 | 486.86 | 495.71 | 490.93 | 486.20 | 481.51 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 446.79 | 417.46 | 379.40 | 344.81 | 313.38 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,901.84 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.97 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 491.14 |
| Terminal Value | 7,046.43 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 4,586 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 6,487.84 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -56.18 |
| Equity Value | 6,544.02 |
| Shares Outstanding | 190.26 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 34.39 |