Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Shell plc (RDS-B)

$51.06

-0.03 (-0.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 131.69 | 51.06 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 305,179388,379344,877180,543261,504270,169.45279,122.06288,371.33297,927.09307,799.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 47,82360,77858,15429,38859,82847,192.0448,755.8450,371.4752,040.6353,765.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 21,60038,64329,453-23,05632,90713,714.4314,168.8814,638.4015,123.4715,624.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 26,22322,13528,70152,44426,92133,477.6134,586.9635,733.0736,917.1638,140.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 20,31226,74118,05531,83036,97127,311.0228,216.0229,151.0230,116.9931,114.98
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 25,22321,11724,07119,45725,25822,217.3722,953.5923,714.2024,500.0225,311.87
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 33,19630,35129,49741,67763,17340,248.2641,581.9642,959.8644,383.4345,854.16
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -20,845-23,011-22,971-16,585-19,000-19,380.75-20,022.97-20,686.48-21,371.96-22,080.17
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 51.06
Beta 1.045
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,029.15
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 32.61
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.73%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.722
Total Debt 89,086
Total Equity 205,728.40
Total Capital 294,814.40
Debt Weighting 30.22
Equity Weighting 69.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 305,179388,379344,877180,543261,504270,169.45279,122.06288,371.33297,927.09307,799.50
EBITDA 47,82360,77858,15429,38859,82847,192.0448,755.8450,371.4752,040.6353,765.10
EBIT 21,60038,64329,453-23,05632,90713,714.4314,168.8814,638.4015,123.4715,624.62
Tax Rate 28.42%34.44%37.84%19.61%32.61%30.58%30.58%30.58%30.58%30.58%
EBIAT 15,460.7425,333.1318,308.59-18,535.7722,175.199,519.969,835.4310,161.3410,498.0610,845.93
Depreciation 26,22322,13528,70152,44426,92133,477.6134,586.9635,733.0736,917.1638,140.48
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -4,106-2,9544,614-5,8013,040.63-736.22-760.61-785.82-811.86
Accounts Payable --2,845-85412,18021,496-22,924.741,333.711,377.901,423.561,470.73
Capital Expenditure -20,845-23,011-22,971-16,585-19,000-19,380.75-20,022.97-20,686.48-21,371.96-22,080.17
UFCF 20,838.7425,718.1220,230.5934,117.2345,791.193,732.7124,996.9025,825.2226,680.9927,565.12
WACC
PV UFCF 3,514.4622,159.2721,554.9920,967.2020,395.43
SUM PV UFCF 88,591.35

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.21
Free cash flow (t + 1) 28,116.43
Terminal Value 667,848.58
Present Value of Terminal Value 494,141.09

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 582,732.43
Net Debt 52,115
Equity Value 530,617.43
Shares Outstanding 4,029.15
Equity Value Per Share 131.69