Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Renewable Energy Group, Inc. (REGI)

$61.5

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 231.49 | 61.5 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,158.242,382.992,641.392,137.153,244.053,681.684,178.344,7425,381.706,107.69
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -56.53351.97449.92189.90275.07342.76388.99441.47501.02568.61
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -90.81315.72413.62152.58231.64287.03325.75369.69419.56476.16
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 34.2836.2536.3037.3243.4355.7363.2571.7881.4692.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 77.63174.5150.44233.96788.47354.04401.80456.01517.52587.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 9777.54864.04173.10201.92403.39457.81519.57589.66669.20
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 162.58170.90163.57210.23459.33330.56375.16425.77483.20548.39
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 84.6195.87369.21132.94162.85244.18277.12314.50356.93405.08
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -67.57-46.45-42.52-63.64-99.55-93.78-106.43-120.79-137.09-155.58
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 61.5
Beta 0.000
Diluted Shares Outstanding 47.72
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -7.26
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.33%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.326
Total Debt 588.77
Total Equity 2,934.67
Total Capital 3,523.44
Debt Weighting 16.71
Equity Weighting 83.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,158.242,382.992,641.392,137.153,244.053,681.684,178.344,7425,381.706,107.69
EBITDA -56.53351.97449.92189.90275.07342.76388.99441.47501.02568.61
EBIT -90.81315.72413.62152.58231.64287.03325.75369.69419.56476.16
Tax Rate 27.83%5.55%2.34%4.61%-7.26%6.61%6.61%6.61%6.61%6.61%
EBIAT -65.54298.19403.95145.56248.46268.05304.21345.25391.82444.68
Depreciation 34.2836.2536.3037.3243.4355.7363.2571.7881.4692.45
Accounts Receivable -19.46-786.50690.94-28.83-201.47-54.42-61.76-70.09-79.55
Inventories --8.337.33-46.66-249.10128.77-44.59-50.61-57.44-65.18
Accounts Payable -11.26273.35-236.2729.9181.3332.9437.3842.4348.15
Capital Expenditure -67.57-46.45-42.52-63.64-99.55-93.78-106.43-120.79-137.09-155.58
UFCF -98.83310.38-108.08527.23-55.68238.63194.95221.25251.10284.97
WACC
PV UFCF 228.72179.10194.83211.94230.54
SUM PV UFCF 1,045.13

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.33
Free cash flow (t + 1) 290.67
Terminal Value 12,475.04
Present Value of Terminal Value 10,092.43

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 11,137.57
Net Debt 91.12
Equity Value 11,046.45
Shares Outstanding 47.72
Equity Value Per Share 231.49