Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Transocean Ltd. (RIG)
$8.14
+0.19 (+2.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,018 | 3,088 | 3,152 | 2,556 | 2,575 | 2,486.33 | 2,400.72 | 2,318.06 | 2,238.24 | 2,161.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,242 | 1,166 | 1,178 | 950 | 853 | 927.80 | 895.85 | 865 | 835.22 | 806.46 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 312 | 124 | 182 | -12 | 1 | 97.95 | 94.57 | 91.32 | 88.17 | 85.14 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 930 | 1,042 | 996 | 962 | 852 | 829.85 | 801.27 | 773.68 | 747.04 | 721.32 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2,160 | 1,790 | 1,154 | 976 | 683 | 1,147.98 | 1,108.45 | 1,070.28 | 1,033.43 | 997.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 604 | 654 | 583 | 492 | 485 | 486.19 | 469.45 | 453.28 | 437.67 | 422.60 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 474 | 479 | 434 | 392 | 388 | 374.89 | 361.99 | 349.52 | 337.49 | 325.86 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 269 | 311 | 194 | 228 | 281 | 223.63 | 215.93 | 208.50 | 201.32 | 194.38 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -184 | -387 | -265 | -208 | -717 | -313.37 | -302.58 | -292.16 | -282.10 | -272.39 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 8.14 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.968 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 637 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -10.50 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.64% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 18.449 |
| Total Debt | 7,347 |
| Total Equity | 5,185.18 |
| Total Capital | 12,532.18 |
| Debt Weighting | 58.63 |
| Equity Weighting | 41.37 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,018 | 3,088 | 3,152 | 2,556 | 2,575 | 2,486.33 | 2,400.72 | 2,318.06 | 2,238.24 | 2,161.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,242 | 1,166 | 1,178 | 950 | 853 | 927.80 | 895.85 | 865 | 835.22 | 806.46 |
| EBIT | 312 | 124 | 182 | -12 | 1 | 97.95 | 94.57 | 91.32 | 88.17 | 85.14 |
| Tax Rate | -12.45% | -4.92% | -4.99% | -25.74% | -10.50% | -11.72% | -11.72% | -11.72% | -11.72% | -11.72% |
| EBIAT | 350.85 | 130.11 | 191.08 | -15.09 | 1.10 | 109.43 | 105.66 | 102.02 | 98.51 | 95.12 |
| Depreciation | 930 | 1,042 | 996 | 962 | 852 | 829.85 | 801.27 | 773.68 | 747.04 | 721.32 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -50 | 71 | 91 | 7 | -1.19 | 16.74 | 16.16 | 15.61 | 15.07 |
| Inventories | - | -5 | 45 | 42 | 4 | 13.11 | 12.91 | 12.46 | 12.04 | 11.62 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 42 | -117 | 34 | 53 | -57.37 | -7.70 | -7.44 | -7.18 | -6.93 |
| Capital Expenditure | -184 | -387 | -265 | -208 | -717 | -313.37 | -302.58 | -292.16 | -282.10 | -272.39 |
| UFCF | 1,096.85 | 772.11 | 921.08 | 905.91 | 200.10 | 580.45 | 626.30 | 604.74 | 583.91 | 563.81 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 517.75 | 498.30 | 429.17 | 369.63 | 318.35 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 2,133.22 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.11 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 575.08 |
| Terminal Value | 5,688.26 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,211.87 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 5,345.09 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 6,664 |
| Equity Value | -1,318.91 |
| Shares Outstanding | 637 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -2.07 |