Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ-PA)
$24.43
+0.38 (+1.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,761.22 | 1,566.19 | 473.09 | 785.66 | 1,193.66 | 1,304.48 | 1,425.58 | 1,557.93 | 1,702.56 | 1,860.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 535.62 | 421.78 | -64.58 | -9.84 | 296.36 | 175.50 | 191.79 | 209.59 | 229.05 | 250.32 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 297.06 | 212.25 | -256.34 | -197.61 | 111.48 | -103.26 | -112.85 | -123.32 | -134.77 | -147.28 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 238.56 | 209.53 | 191.76 | 187.78 | 184.88 | 278.76 | 304.64 | 332.92 | 363.83 | 397.60 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 320.15 | 882.47 | 899.81 | 4,884.46 | 4,661.64 | 3,331.52 | 3,640.80 | 3,978.80 | 4,348.18 | 4,751.85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 52.12 | 39.76 | 13.35 | 31.09 | 38.53 | 40.45 | 44.20 | 48.31 | 52.79 | 57.69 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 203.83 | 183.41 | 172.32 | 155.14 | 237.11 | 259.12 | 283.17 | 309.46 | 338.19 | 369.59 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.28 | -0.25 | -0.07 | -0.12 | -0.19 | -0.21 | -0.23 | -0.25 | -0.27 | -0.29 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 24.43 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.784 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 114.81 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 61.56 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.92% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.802 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 2,804.83 |
| Total Capital | 2,804.83 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,761.22 | 1,566.19 | 473.09 | 785.66 | 1,193.66 | 1,304.48 | 1,425.58 | 1,557.93 | 1,702.56 | 1,860.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 535.62 | 421.78 | -64.58 | -9.84 | 296.36 | 175.50 | 191.79 | 209.59 | 229.05 | 250.32 |
| EBIT | 297.06 | 212.25 | -256.34 | -197.61 | 111.48 | -103.26 | -112.85 | -123.32 | -134.77 | -147.28 |
| Tax Rate | 4.77% | -2.83% | -13.34% | 1.53% | 61.56% | 10.34% | 10.34% | 10.34% | 10.34% | 10.34% |
| EBIAT | 282.88 | 218.25 | -290.54 | -194.60 | 42.85 | -92.59 | -101.18 | -110.57 | -120.84 | -132.06 |
| Depreciation | 238.56 | 209.53 | 191.76 | 187.78 | 184.88 | 278.76 | 304.64 | 332.92 | 363.83 | 397.60 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 12.35 | 26.42 | -17.75 | -7.44 | -1.92 | -3.76 | -4.10 | -4.48 | -4.90 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -20.42 | -11.08 | -17.19 | 81.97 | 22.01 | 24.06 | 26.29 | 28.73 | 31.40 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.28 | -0.25 | -0.07 | -0.12 | -0.19 | -0.21 | -0.23 | -0.25 | -0.27 | -0.29 |
| UFCF | 521.16 | 419.46 | -83.52 | -41.88 | 302.07 | 206.06 | 223.53 | 244.28 | 266.96 | 291.75 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 184.31 | 178.84 | 174.81 | 170.88 | 167.03 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 875.86 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.80 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 297.58 |
| Terminal Value | 3,036.53 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,738.48 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,614.34 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -481.32 |
| Equity Value | 3,095.65 |
| Shares Outstanding | 114.81 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 26.96 |