Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hermès International Société en com... (RMS.PA)

1378 €

-1.50 (-0.11%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 1,331.57 | 1378 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	5,549.10	5,966.10	6,883.40	6,389.40	8,982	10,245.99	11,687.85	13,332.62	15,208.84	17,349.10
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,093.50	2,297.20	2,751.30	2,544.90	4,055	4,122.51	4,702.65	5,364.43	6,119.34	6,980.48
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,892.40	2,080.20	2,303.60	2,030.70	3,492	3,547.08	4,046.24	4,615.64	5,265.18	6,006.12
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	201.10	217	447.70	514.20	563	575.44	656.41	748.79	854.16	974.36
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	2,931.90	3,479.10	4,384.20	4,732.70	6,696	6,628.39	7,561.17	8,625.21	9,838.99	11,223.57
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	896.20	963.60	1,132.60	1,289.40	1,449	1,743.22	1,988.53	2,268.37	2,587.58	2,951.72
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	425.80	417.10	405.50	372.50	450	643.35	733.89	837.17	954.98	1,089.37
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-265.30	-312.30	-478	-448.40	-538.42	-614.19	-700.62	-799.21	-911.68	-1,039.98
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 1,378
Beta	0.545
Diluted Shares Outstanding	79.87
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	28.82
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.27%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.423
Total Debt	1,802
Total Equity	110,057.18
Total Capital	111,859.18
Debt Weighting	1.61
Equity Weighting	98.39
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	5,549.10	5,966.10	6,883.40	6,389.40	8,982	10,245.99	11,687.85	13,332.62	15,208.84	17,349.10
EBITDA	2,093.50	2,297.20	2,751.30	2,544.90	4,055	4,122.51	4,702.65	5,364.43	6,119.34	6,980.48
EBIT	1,892.40	2,080.20	2,303.60	2,030.70	3,492	3,547.08	4,046.24	4,615.64	5,265.18	6,006.12
Tax Rate	35.36%	31.92%	32.69%	30.26%	28.82%	31.81%	31.81%	31.81%	31.81%	31.81%
EBIAT	1,223.18	1,416.24	1,550.62	1,416.30	2,485.57	2,418.78	2,759.17	3,147.45	3,590.37	4,095.63
Depreciation	201.10	217	447.70	514.20	563	575.44	656.41	748.79	854.16	974.36
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-67.40	-169	-156.80	-159.60	-294.22	-245.31	-279.84	-319.21	-364.14
Accounts Payable	-	-8.70	-11.60	-33	77.50	193.35	90.54	103.28	117.81	134.39
Capital Expenditure	-265.30	-312.30	-478	-448.40	-538.42	-614.19	-700.62	-799.21	-911.68	-1,039.98
UFCF	1,158.98	1,244.84	1,339.72	1,292.30	2,428.05	2,279.17	2,560.19	2,920.47	3,331.45	3,800.26
WACC
PV UFCF						2,163.22	2,306.32	2,497.04	2,703.52	2,927.08
SUM PV UFCF										12,597.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.36
Free cash flow (t + 1)	3,876.27
Terminal Value	115,365.18
Present Value of Terminal Value	88,857.88

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	101,455.06
Net Debt	-4,894
Equity Value	106,349.06
Shares Outstanding	79.87
Equity Value Per Share	1,331.57