Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Avidity Biosciences, Inc. (RNA)
$10.9
-0.03 (-0.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 0.38 | 2.32 | 6.79 | 9.33 | 9.22 | 26.31 | 75.03 | 214.01 | 610.39 | 1,740.92 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -10.11 | -17 | -43.77 | -117.37 | -173.22 | -377.96 | -1,078 | -3,074.62 | -8,769.26 | -25,011.21 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -10.50 | -17.35 | -44.15 | -118.01 | -174 | -385.16 | -1,098.53 | -3,133.16 | -8,936.23 | -25,487.45 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 0.64 | 0.77 | 7.20 | 20.53 | 58.54 | 166.98 | 476.24 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 3.09 | 94.58 | 328.14 | 405.54 | 610.73 | 1,089.06 | 3,106.16 | 8,859.23 | 25,267.82 | 72,067.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.57 | 2.31 | 7.74 | 19.48 | 19.26 | 54.95 | 156.72 | 446.97 | 1,274.84 | 3,636.02 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.05 | -0.23 | -1.09 | -3.74 | -2.82 | -5.78 | -16.49 | -47.02 | -134.11 | -382.51 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 10.9 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.109 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 52.16 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 3.297 |
| Total Debt | 7.58 |
| Total Equity | 568.57 |
| Total Capital | 576.15 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.32 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.68 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 0.38 | 2.32 | 6.79 | 9.33 | 9.22 | 26.31 | 75.03 | 214.01 | 610.39 | 1,740.92 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -10.11 | -17 | -43.77 | -117.37 | -173.22 | -377.96 | -1,078 | -3,074.62 | -8,769.26 | -25,011.21 |
| EBIT | -10.50 | -17.35 | -44.15 | -118.01 | -174 | -385.16 | -1,098.53 | -3,133.16 | -8,936.23 | -25,487.45 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| EBIAT | -10.50 | -17.35 | -44.15 | -118.01 | -174 | -385.16 | -1,098.53 | -3,133.16 | -8,936.23 | -25,487.45 |
| Depreciation | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 0.64 | 0.77 | 7.20 | 20.53 | 58.54 | 166.98 | 476.24 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.74 | 5.44 | 11.73 | -0.21 | 35.68 | 101.77 | 290.26 | 827.86 | 2,361.19 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.05 | -0.23 | -1.09 | -3.74 | -2.82 | -5.78 | -16.49 | -47.02 | -134.11 | -382.51 |
| UFCF | -10.16 | -16.49 | -39.43 | -109.38 | -176.26 | -348.06 | -992.72 | -2,831.38 | -8,075.51 | -23,032.53 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -336.88 | -929.95 | -2,567.11 | -7,086.51 | -19,562.29 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -30,482.73 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.32 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -23,493.18 |
| Terminal Value | -1,779,786.74 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,511,631.66 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,542,114.39 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -332.81 |
| Equity Value | -1,541,781.58 |
| Shares Outstanding | 52.16 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -29,557.56 |