Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Renault SA (RNO.PA)

37.6 €

+0.02 (+0.05%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -97.66 | 37.6 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	57,419	55,537	43,475	46,213	46,391	44,267.05	42,240.34	40,306.42	38,461.05	36,700.16
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	7,668	5,536	-2,467	5,919	4,097	3,478.29	3,319.04	3,167.09	3,022.08	2,883.72
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	4,423	1,727	-7,217	1,876	565	-45.18	-43.11	-41.14	-39.25	-37.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	3,245	3,809	4,750	4,043	3,532	3,523.47	3,362.16	3,208.22	3,061.34	2,921.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	15,698	16,357	21,453	21,912	21,192	17,639	16,831.42	16,060.81	15,325.49	14,623.83
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	5,879	5,780	5,640	4,792	5,213	4,889.36	4,665.50	4,451.90	4,248.08	4,053.58
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	9,505	9,582	8,277	7,975	8,405	7,810.52	7,452.92	7,111.70	6,786.10	6,475.41
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-4,517	-5,121	-4,208	-3,001	-2,684	-3,456.92	-3,298.65	-3,147.62	-3,003.51	-2,866
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 37.6
Beta	1.712
Diluted Shares Outstanding	273.87
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	115.70
After-tax Cost of Debt	-0.09%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.574
Total Debt	63,016
Total Equity	10,297.44
Total Capital	73,313.44
Debt Weighting	85.95
Equity Weighting	14.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	57,419	55,537	43,475	46,213	46,391	44,267.05	42,240.34	40,306.42	38,461.05	36,700.16
EBITDA	7,668	5,536	-2,467	5,919	4,097	3,478.29	3,319.04	3,167.09	3,022.08	2,883.72
EBIT	4,423	1,727	-7,217	1,876	565	-45.18	-43.11	-41.14	-39.25	-37.46
Tax Rate	20.89%	109.57%	-5.01%	43.19%	115.70%	56.87%	56.87%	56.87%	56.87%	56.87%
EBIAT	3,498.98	-165.31	-7,578.51	1,065.83	-88.70	-19.49	-18.59	-17.74	-16.93	-16.16
Depreciation	3,245	3,809	4,750	4,043	3,532	3,523.47	3,362.16	3,208.22	3,061.34	2,921.18
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	99	140	848	-421	323.64	223.85	213.60	203.82	194.49
Accounts Payable	-	77	-1,305	-302	430	-594.48	-357.59	-341.22	-325.60	-310.69
Capital Expenditure	-4,517	-5,121	-4,208	-3,001	-2,684	-3,456.92	-3,298.65	-3,147.62	-3,003.51	-2,866
UFCF	2,226.98	-1,301.31	-8,201.51	2,653.83	768.30	-223.77	-88.83	-84.76	-80.88	-77.18
WACC
PV UFCF						-220.36	-86.14	-80.94	-76.06	-71.47
SUM PV UFCF										-534.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	1.55
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-78.72
Terminal Value	17,493.95
Present Value of Terminal Value	16,199

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	15,664.04
Net Debt	42,411
Equity Value	-26,746.96
Shares Outstanding	273.87
Equity Value Per Share	-97.66