Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Roku, Inc. (ROKU)

$56.08

-0.43 (-0.76%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -146.22 | 56.08 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	512.76	742.51	1,128.92	1,778.39	2,764.58	4,214.82	6,425.83	9,796.68	14,935.81	22,770.80
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-56.25	-0.60	-42.88	72.32	313.21	4.62	7.04	10.73	16.36	24.94
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-61.58	-8.99	-58.55	-15.02	239.57	-89.23	-136.05	-207.41	-316.22	-482.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	5.34	8.39	15.67	87.34	73.65	93.85	143.08	218.14	332.58	507.04
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	177.25	197.71	515.48	1,092.81	2,146.04	2,073.12	3,160.64	4,818.64	7,346.39	11,200.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	120.55	183.08	332.67	523.85	752.39	1,132.16	1,726.07	2,631.53	4,011.98	6,116.58
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	32.74	35.59	49.71	53.90	50.28	172.22	262.56	400.30	610.29	930.43
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	56.41	56.58	115.23	112.31	124.92	334.34	509.73	777.12	1,184.78	1,806.29
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-9.23	-18.33	-84.61	-82.38	-40.04	-150.41	-229.32	-349.61	-533.01	-812.62
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 56.08
Beta	1.654
Diluted Shares Outstanding	141.67
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-2.45
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.57%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.496
Total Debt	521.71
Total Equity	7,944.74
Total Capital	8,466.45
Debt Weighting	6.16
Equity Weighting	93.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	512.76	742.51	1,128.92	1,778.39	2,764.58	4,214.82	6,425.83	9,796.68	14,935.81	22,770.80
EBITDA	-56.25	-0.60	-42.88	72.32	313.21	4.62	7.04	10.73	16.36	24.94
EBIT	-61.58	-8.99	-58.55	-15.02	239.57	-89.23	-136.05	-207.41	-316.22	-482.10
Tax Rate	-0.50%	5.10%	1.61%	5.12%	-2.45%	1.78%	1.78%	1.78%	1.78%	1.78%
EBIAT	-61.89	-8.53	-57.61	-14.25	245.44	-87.65	-133.63	-203.73	-310.60	-473.53
Depreciation	5.34	8.39	15.67	87.34	73.65	93.85	143.08	218.14	332.58	507.04
Accounts Receivable	-	-62.52	-149.60	-191.18	-228.54	-379.77	-593.91	-905.46	-1,380.45	-2,104.60
Inventories	-	-2.85	-14.13	-4.18	3.62	-121.94	-90.34	-137.74	-209.99	-320.14
Accounts Payable	-	0.16	58.65	-2.91	12.61	209.42	175.39	267.39	407.66	621.51
Capital Expenditure	-9.23	-18.33	-84.61	-82.38	-40.04	-150.41	-229.32	-349.61	-533.01	-812.62
UFCF	-65.78	-83.67	-231.62	-207.56	66.73	-436.51	-728.73	-1,111	-1,693.81	-2,582.34
WACC
PV UFCF						-393.89	-593.37	-816.32	-1,123.03	-1,544.98
SUM PV UFCF										-4,471.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.82
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-2,633.99
Terminal Value	-29,863.84
Present Value of Terminal Value	-17,867.13

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-22,338.73
Net Debt	-1,624.34
Equity Value	-20,714.39
Shares Outstanding	141.67
Equity Value Per Share	-146.22