Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

RBC Bearings Incorporated (ROLL)

$212.38

-8.23 (-3.73%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 19.40 | 212.38 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 674.95702.52727.46608.98942.941,051.811,173.261,308.741,459.851,628.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 155.72160.92187.44144.23175.86239.98267.69298.60333.08371.54
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 127.36131.26156.02111.49110.33187.24208.86232.98259.88289.89
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 28.3629.6631.4232.7465.5352.7458.8365.6273.1981.65
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 54.1629.88103.26241.34182.86179.85200.61223.78249.62278.44
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 116.89130.73129110.47247.49206.25230.07256.63286.27319.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 306.12335367.49364.15516.14542.93605.62675.55753.55840.56
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 45.1949.5951.0436.34158.6191.63102.21114.01127.17141.86
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -27.98-41.35-37.30-11.77-29.76-42.59-47.51-52.99-59.11-65.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 212.38
Beta 1.341
Diluted Shares Outstanding 27.31
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.83
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.020
Total Debt 1,736.94
Total Equity 5,800.32
Total Capital 7,537.26
Debt Weighting 23.04
Equity Weighting 76.96
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 674.95702.52727.46608.98942.941,051.811,173.261,308.741,459.851,628.41
EBITDA 155.72160.92187.44144.23175.86239.98267.69298.60333.08371.54
EBIT 127.36131.26156.02111.49110.33187.24208.86232.98259.88289.89
Tax Rate 27.29%16.57%18.23%18.56%25.83%21.30%21.30%21.30%21.30%21.30%
EBIAT 92.60109.51127.5890.8081.84147.37164.38183.36204.54228.15
Depreciation 28.3629.6631.4232.7465.5352.7458.8365.6273.1981.65
Accounts Receivable --13.841.7418.52-137.0241.23-23.82-26.57-29.63-33.05
Inventories --28.88-32.493.35-151.99-26.79-62.69-69.93-78-87.01
Accounts Payable -4.401.45-14.70122.27-66.9810.5811.8013.1614.68
Capital Expenditure -27.98-41.35-37.30-11.77-29.76-42.59-47.51-52.99-59.11-65.94
UFCF 92.9859.5092.39118.94-49.13104.9899.77111.30124.15138.48
WACC
PV UFCF 97.2785.6588.5291.4994.55
SUM PV UFCF 457.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) 141.25
Terminal Value 2,381.96
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,626.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,083.87
Net Debt 1,554.08
Equity Value 529.78
Shares Outstanding 27.31
Equity Value Per Share 19.40