Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ryerson Holding Corporation (RYI)

$29.49

-0.03 (-0.10%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 3.58 | 29.49 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,408.40	4,501.60	3,466.60	5,675.30	6,323.60	7,181.38	8,155.53	9,261.81	10,518.15	11,944.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	220.10	188.70	-11.50	330.50	552.30	336.24	381.85	433.64	492.47	559.27
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	167.20	130.30	-65.40	274.60	493.30	250.49	284.47	323.05	366.88	416.64
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	52.90	58.40	53.90	55.90	59	85.75	97.38	110.59	125.59	142.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	23.20	11	61.40	51.20	39.20	58.37	66.29	75.28	85.49	97.09
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	521	425.10	378.90	630.80	514.40	738.84	839.06	952.88	1,082.13	1,228.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	806.30	742.90	604.50	832.10	798.50	1,142.13	1,297.06	1,473	1,672.81	1,899.72
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	390.20	311.50	365.10	481.20	438.40	599.14	680.41	772.70	877.52	996.55
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-38.40	-45.80	-26	-59.30	-105.10	-76.77	-87.19	-99.02	-112.45	-127.70
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 29.49
Beta	1.742
Diluted Shares Outstanding	38.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.22
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.09%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	12.477
Total Debt	607.30
Total Equity	1,129.47
Total Capital	1,736.77
Debt Weighting	34.97
Equity Weighting	65.03
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,408.40	4,501.60	3,466.60	5,675.30	6,323.60	7,181.38	8,155.53	9,261.81	10,518.15	11,944.92
EBITDA	220.10	188.70	-11.50	330.50	552.30	336.24	381.85	433.64	492.47	559.27
EBIT	167.20	130.30	-65.40	274.60	493.30	250.49	284.47	323.05	366.88	416.64
Tax Rate	9.17%	28.47%	27.52%	24.36%	25.22%	22.95%	22.95%	22.95%	22.95%	22.95%
EBIAT	151.87	93.20	-47.40	207.70	368.87	193	219.18	248.91	282.67	321.02
Depreciation	52.90	58.40	53.90	55.90	59	85.75	97.38	110.59	125.59	142.63
Accounts Receivable	-	95.90	46.20	-251.90	116.40	-224.44	-100.22	-113.82	-129.26	-146.79
Inventories	-	63.40	138.40	-227.60	33.60	-343.63	-154.93	-175.94	-199.81	-226.91
Accounts Payable	-	-78.70	53.60	116.10	-42.80	160.74	81.27	92.30	104.82	119.03
Capital Expenditure	-38.40	-45.80	-26	-59.30	-105.10	-76.77	-87.19	-99.02	-112.45	-127.70
UFCF	166.37	186.40	218.70	-159.10	429.97	-205.36	55.49	63.02	71.57	81.28
WACC
PV UFCF						-187.47	46.25	47.95	49.71	51.53
SUM PV UFCF										7.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.54
Free cash flow (t + 1)	82.90
Terminal Value	1,099.48
Present Value of Terminal Value	697.15

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	705.11
Net Debt	568.10
Equity Value	137.01
Shares Outstanding	38.30
Equity Value Per Share	3.58