Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN)

$3.41

-0.04 (-1.16%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 55.76 | 3.41 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	50,121	49,714	52,322	46,812	48,406	48,080.24	47,756.68	47,435.30	47,116.07	46,799
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	34,841	35,105	35,445	13,418	28,867	28,479.89	28,288.23	28,097.86	27,908.77	27,720.96
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	32,248	32,680	32,444	10,608	26,111	25,837.09	25,663.21	25,490.51	25,318.97	25,148.58
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	2,593	2,425	3,001	2,810	2,756	2,642.80	2,625.02	2,607.35	2,589.81	2,572.38
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	287,543	259,656	249,724	284,708	335,180	276,356.54	274,496.76	272,649.49	270,814.66	268,992.17
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	7,033	6,993	6,827	5,340	5,756	6,197.06	6,155.36	6,113.93	6,072.79	6,031.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,616	2,020	1,853	1,998	2,400	2,120.37	2,106.10	2,091.93	2,077.85	2,063.87
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-8,988	-12,195	-14,143	-8,520	-11,403	-10,697.96	-10,625.96	-10,554.45	-10,483.43	-10,412.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 3.41
Beta	1.397
Diluted Shares Outstanding	17,321.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	44.15
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.94%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.111
Total Debt	249,019
Total Equity	59,064.71
Total Capital	308,083.71
Debt Weighting	80.83
Equity Weighting	19.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	50,121	49,714	52,322	46,812	48,406	48,080.24	47,756.68	47,435.30	47,116.07	46,799
EBITDA	34,841	35,105	35,445	13,418	28,867	28,479.89	28,288.23	28,097.86	27,908.77	27,720.96
EBIT	32,248	32,680	32,444	10,608	26,111	25,837.09	25,663.21	25,490.51	25,318.97	25,148.58
Tax Rate	45.26%	45.00%	48.06%	-322.50%	44.15%	-28.00%	-28.00%	-28.00%	-28.00%	-28.00%
EBIAT	17,653.59	17,972.73	16,851.84	44,818.29	14,582.10	33,072.63	32,850.06	32,628.99	32,409.41	32,191.31
Depreciation	2,593	2,425	3,001	2,810	2,756	2,642.80	2,625.02	2,607.35	2,589.81	2,572.38
Accounts Receivable	-	40	166	1,487	-416	-441.06	41.70	41.42	41.14	40.87
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-596	-167	145	402	-279.63	-14.27	-14.17	-14.08	-13.98
Capital Expenditure	-8,988	-12,195	-14,143	-8,520	-11,403	-10,697.96	-10,625.96	-10,554.45	-10,483.43	-10,412.88
UFCF	11,258.59	7,646.73	5,708.84	40,740.29	5,921.10	24,296.79	24,876.55	24,709.14	24,542.86	24,377.69
WACC
PV UFCF						23,292.87	22,863.27	21,771.07	20,731.05	19,740.72
SUM PV UFCF										108,398.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.31
Free cash flow (t + 1)	24,865.25
Terminal Value	1,076,417.65
Present Value of Terminal Value	871,667.96

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	980,066.94
Net Debt	14,214
Equity Value	965,852.94
Shares Outstanding	17,321.03
Equity Value Per Share	55.76