Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN)

$3.41

-0.04 (-1.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 55.76 | 3.41 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 50,12149,71452,32246,81248,40648,080.2447,756.6847,435.3047,116.0746,799
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 34,84135,10535,44513,41828,86728,479.8928,288.2328,097.8627,908.7727,720.96
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 32,24832,68032,44410,60826,11125,837.0925,663.2125,490.5125,318.9725,148.58
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,5932,4253,0012,8102,7562,642.802,625.022,607.352,589.812,572.38
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 287,543259,656249,724284,708335,180276,356.54274,496.76272,649.49270,814.66268,992.17
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 7,0336,9936,8275,3405,7566,197.066,155.366,113.936,072.796,031.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,6162,0201,8531,9982,4002,120.372,106.102,091.932,077.852,063.87
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -8,988-12,195-14,143-8,520-11,403-10,697.96-10,625.96-10,554.45-10,483.43-10,412.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.41
Beta 1.397
Diluted Shares Outstanding 17,321.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 44.15
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.94%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.111
Total Debt 249,019
Total Equity 59,064.71
Total Capital 308,083.71
Debt Weighting 80.83
Equity Weighting 19.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 50,12149,71452,32246,81248,40648,080.2447,756.6847,435.3047,116.0746,799
EBITDA 34,84135,10535,44513,41828,86728,479.8928,288.2328,097.8627,908.7727,720.96
EBIT 32,24832,68032,44410,60826,11125,837.0925,663.2125,490.5125,318.9725,148.58
Tax Rate 45.26%45.00%48.06%-322.50%44.15%-28.00%-28.00%-28.00%-28.00%-28.00%
EBIAT 17,653.5917,972.7316,851.8444,818.2914,582.1033,072.6332,850.0632,628.9932,409.4132,191.31
Depreciation 2,5932,4253,0012,8102,7562,642.802,625.022,607.352,589.812,572.38
Accounts Receivable -401661,487-416-441.0641.7041.4241.1440.87
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --596-167145402-279.63-14.27-14.17-14.08-13.98
Capital Expenditure -8,988-12,195-14,143-8,520-11,403-10,697.96-10,625.96-10,554.45-10,483.43-10,412.88
UFCF 11,258.597,646.735,708.8440,740.295,921.1024,296.7924,876.5524,709.1424,542.8624,377.69
WACC
PV UFCF 23,292.8722,863.2721,771.0720,731.0519,740.72
SUM PV UFCF 108,398.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.31
Free cash flow (t + 1) 24,865.25
Terminal Value 1,076,417.65
Present Value of Terminal Value 871,667.96

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 980,066.94
Net Debt 14,214
Equity Value 965,852.94
Shares Outstanding 17,321.03
Equity Value Per Share 55.76