Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN)

$4.46

+0.04 (+0.91%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 15.16 | 4.46 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 52,32246,81248,40654,21659,59361,797.1364,082.7866,452.9768,910.8271,459.58
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 13,943-32915,77449,88718,53622,451.1623,281.5424,142.6425,035.5925,961.57
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 10,942-3,13913,01846,90215,35218,955.8419,656.9520,383.9921,137.9221,919.74
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,0012,8102,7562,9853,1843,495.313,624.593,758.653,897.674,041.83
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 249,724284,708335,180390,760406,217393,068.19407,606.36422,682.24438,315.72454,527.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 6,8275,3405,7569,20010,6238,792.699,117.909,455.139,804.8510,167.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -223,504-281,081-319,269-357,193-367,495-366,171.42-379,714.77-393,759.04-408,322.76-423,425.13
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,8531,9982,4003,0252,0552,693.822,793.452,896.773,003.913,115.02
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -14,143-8,520-11,403-10,840-13,643-13,802.50-14,313-14,842.39-15,391.35-15,960.62
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.46
Beta 1.343
Diluted Shares Outstanding 17,040
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 32.71
After-tax Cost of Debt 13.52%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.695
Total Debt 308,579
Total Equity 75,998.40
Total Capital 384,577.40
Debt Weighting 80.24
Equity Weighting 19.76
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 52,32246,81248,40654,21659,59361,797.1364,082.7866,452.9768,910.8271,459.58
EBITDA 13,943-32915,77449,88718,53622,451.1623,281.5424,142.6425,035.5925,961.57
EBIT 10,942-3,13913,01846,90215,35218,955.8419,656.9520,383.9921,137.9221,919.74
Tax Rate 48.06%-271.29%44.15%37.02%32.71%-21.87%-21.87%-21.87%-21.87%-21.87%
EBIAT 5,683.42-11,654.827,270.1129,540.5710,331.0523,101.7523,956.2024,842.2525,761.0826,713.89
Depreciation 3,0012,8102,7562,9853,1843,495.313,624.593,758.653,897.674,041.83
Accounts Receivable -1,487-416-3,444-1,4231,830.31-325.21-337.24-349.71-362.65
Inventories -57,57738,18837,92410,302-1,323.5813,543.3514,044.2714,563.7215,102.38
Accounts Payable -145402625-970638.8299.63103.32107.14111.10
Capital Expenditure -14,143-8,520-11,403-10,840-13,643-13,802.50-14,313-14,842.39-15,391.35-15,960.62
UFCF -5,458.5841,844.1836,797.1156,790.577,781.0513,940.1126,585.5727,568.8728,588.5429,645.93
WACC
PV UFCF 12,340.7520,835.1519,126.9117,558.7416,119.13
SUM PV UFCF 85,980.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.96
Free cash flow (t + 1) 30,238.85
Terminal Value 275,901.88
Present Value of Terminal Value 150,013.81

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 235,994.49
Net Debt -22,312
Equity Value 258,306.49
Shares Outstanding 17,040
Equity Value Per Share 15.16