Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN)
$4.46
+0.04 (+0.91%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 52,322 | 46,812 | 48,406 | 54,216 | 59,593 | 61,797.13 | 64,082.78 | 66,452.97 | 68,910.82 | 71,459.58 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 13,943 | -329 | 15,774 | 49,887 | 18,536 | 22,451.16 | 23,281.54 | 24,142.64 | 25,035.59 | 25,961.57 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 10,942 | -3,139 | 13,018 | 46,902 | 15,352 | 18,955.84 | 19,656.95 | 20,383.99 | 21,137.92 | 21,919.74 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 3,001 | 2,810 | 2,756 | 2,985 | 3,184 | 3,495.31 | 3,624.59 | 3,758.65 | 3,897.67 | 4,041.83 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 249,724 | 284,708 | 335,180 | 390,760 | 406,217 | 393,068.19 | 407,606.36 | 422,682.24 | 438,315.72 | 454,527.43 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 6,827 | 5,340 | 5,756 | 9,200 | 10,623 | 8,792.69 | 9,117.90 | 9,455.13 | 9,804.85 | 10,167.49 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | -223,504 | -281,081 | -319,269 | -357,193 | -367,495 | -366,171.42 | -379,714.77 | -393,759.04 | -408,322.76 | -423,425.13 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1,853 | 1,998 | 2,400 | 3,025 | 2,055 | 2,693.82 | 2,793.45 | 2,896.77 | 3,003.91 | 3,115.02 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -14,143 | -8,520 | -11,403 | -10,840 | -13,643 | -13,802.50 | -14,313 | -14,842.39 | -15,391.35 | -15,960.62 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 4.46 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.343 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 17,040 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 32.71 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 13.52% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.695 |
Total Debt | 308,579 |
Total Equity | 75,998.40 |
Total Capital | 384,577.40 |
Debt Weighting | 80.24 |
Equity Weighting | 19.76 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 52,322 | 46,812 | 48,406 | 54,216 | 59,593 | 61,797.13 | 64,082.78 | 66,452.97 | 68,910.82 | 71,459.58 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 13,943 | -329 | 15,774 | 49,887 | 18,536 | 22,451.16 | 23,281.54 | 24,142.64 | 25,035.59 | 25,961.57 |
EBIT | 10,942 | -3,139 | 13,018 | 46,902 | 15,352 | 18,955.84 | 19,656.95 | 20,383.99 | 21,137.92 | 21,919.74 |
Tax Rate | 48.06% | -271.29% | 44.15% | 37.02% | 32.71% | -21.87% | -21.87% | -21.87% | -21.87% | -21.87% |
EBIAT | 5,683.42 | -11,654.82 | 7,270.11 | 29,540.57 | 10,331.05 | 23,101.75 | 23,956.20 | 24,842.25 | 25,761.08 | 26,713.89 |
Depreciation | 3,001 | 2,810 | 2,756 | 2,985 | 3,184 | 3,495.31 | 3,624.59 | 3,758.65 | 3,897.67 | 4,041.83 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 1,487 | -416 | -3,444 | -1,423 | 1,830.31 | -325.21 | -337.24 | -349.71 | -362.65 |
Inventories | - | 57,577 | 38,188 | 37,924 | 10,302 | -1,323.58 | 13,543.35 | 14,044.27 | 14,563.72 | 15,102.38 |
Accounts Payable | - | 145 | 402 | 625 | -970 | 638.82 | 99.63 | 103.32 | 107.14 | 111.10 |
Capital Expenditure | -14,143 | -8,520 | -11,403 | -10,840 | -13,643 | -13,802.50 | -14,313 | -14,842.39 | -15,391.35 | -15,960.62 |
UFCF | -5,458.58 | 41,844.18 | 36,797.11 | 56,790.57 | 7,781.05 | 13,940.11 | 26,585.57 | 27,568.87 | 28,588.54 | 29,645.93 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 12,340.75 | 20,835.15 | 19,126.91 | 17,558.74 | 16,119.13 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 85,980.68 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 12.96 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 30,238.85 |
Terminal Value | 275,901.88 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 150,013.81 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 235,994.49 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -22,312 |
Equity Value | 258,306.49 |
Shares Outstanding | 17,040 |
Equity Value Per Share | 15.16 |