Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

S&W Seed Company (SANW)

$1.22

+0.06 (+5.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -9.64 | 1.22 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 64.09109.7279.5884.0571.3577.4684.1091.3099.12107.60
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 0.89-2.10-11.73-10.75-27.41-10.30-11.18-12.14-13.18-14.30
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -2.55-6.23-16.76-16.22-32.87-14.89-16.16-17.55-19.05-20.68
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.444.135.045.475.464.594.985.415.876.37
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 4.323.434.123.532.063.433.724.044.394.76
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13.8613.3819.0219.3919.0516.6518.0819.6321.3123.13
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 60.4271.3063.8863.4054.5260.6365.8271.4677.5884.22
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.946.938.0515.9515.9010.3711.2612.2213.2714.41
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.48-0.78-1.97-1.08-2.10-1.51-1.64-1.78-1.93-2.09
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.22
Beta 1.418
Diluted Shares Outstanding 39.13
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.35
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.66%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.291
Total Debt 46.69
Total Equity 47.74
Total Capital 94.43
Debt Weighting 49.44
Equity Weighting 50.56
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 64.09109.7279.5884.0571.3577.4684.1091.3099.12107.60
EBITDA 0.89-2.10-11.73-10.75-27.41-10.30-11.18-12.14-13.18-14.30
EBIT -2.55-6.23-16.76-16.22-32.87-14.89-16.16-17.55-19.05-20.68
Tax Rate -3.12%2.07%-1.62%-0.21%-1.35%-0.85%-0.85%-0.85%-0.85%-0.85%
EBIAT -2.63-6.10-17.03-16.26-33.32-15.01-16.30-17.69-19.21-20.85
Depreciation 3.444.135.045.475.464.594.985.415.876.37
Accounts Receivable -0.48-5.64-0.370.342.40-1.43-1.55-1.68-1.82
Inventories --10.887.410.498.88-6.12-5.19-5.64-6.12-6.64
Accounts Payable -11.117.90-0.05-5.530.890.961.051.14
Capital Expenditure -1.48-0.78-1.97-1.08-2.10-1.51-1.64-1.78-1.93-2.09
UFCF -0.67-12.15-11.08-3.84-20.78-21.18-18.68-20.28-22.02-23.90
WACC
PV UFCF -19.52-15.87-15.88-15.89-15.90
SUM PV UFCF -83.06

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.50
Free cash flow (t + 1) -24.38
Terminal Value -375.11
Present Value of Terminal Value -249.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -332.52
Net Debt 44.63
Equity Value -377.16
Shares Outstanding 39.13
Equity Value Per Share -9.64