Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

S&W Seed Company (SANW)

$0.699

+0.07 (+12.02%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2.31 | 0.699 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 109.7279.5884.0571.3573.5267.2961.5856.3651.5847.20
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 15.57-11.88-16.71-25.83-13.24-10.07-9.22-8.43-7.72-7.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11.44-16.92-22.18-31.29-18.01-14.21-13-11.90-10.89-9.97
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.135.045.475.464.774.143.793.463.172.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 3.434.123.532.063.402.692.462.262.061.89
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13.3819.0219.3919.0531.4717.3215.8514.5013.2712.15
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 71.3063.8863.4054.5245.1048.2344.1440.4036.9733.84
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6.938.0515.9515.9013.3110.209.338.547.827.16
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.78-1.97-1.08-2.10-1.03-1.19-1.09-0.99-0.91-0.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.699
Beta 0.969
Diluted Shares Outstanding 42.94
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 6.59
After-tax Cost of Debt 10.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.859
Total Debt 53.21
Total Equity 30.01
Total Capital 83.22
Debt Weighting 63.94
Equity Weighting 36.06
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 109.7279.5884.0571.3573.5267.2961.5856.3651.5847.20
EBITDA 15.57-11.88-16.71-25.83-13.24-10.07-9.22-8.43-7.72-7.06
EBIT 11.44-16.92-22.18-31.29-18.01-14.21-13-11.90-10.89-9.97
Tax Rate 1.57%-1.99%0.13%-1.15%6.59%1.03%1.03%1.03%1.03%1.03%
EBIAT 11.26-17.26-22.15-31.65-16.82-14.06-12.87-11.78-10.78-9.86
Depreciation 4.135.045.475.464.774.143.793.463.172.90
Accounts Receivable --5.64-0.370.34-12.4214.151.471.341.231.13
Inventories -7.410.498.889.42-3.134.093.743.433.14
Accounts Payable -1.117.90-0.05-2.59-3.11-0.87-0.79-0.72-0.66
Capital Expenditure -0.78-1.97-1.08-2.10-1.03-1.19-1.09-0.99-0.91-0.83
UFCF 14.61-11.31-9.73-19.11-18.67-3.20-5.47-5.01-4.58-4.20
WACC
PV UFCF -2.91-4.51-3.75-3.12-2.59
SUM PV UFCF -16.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.11
Free cash flow (t + 1) -4.28
Terminal Value -52.76
Present Value of Terminal Value -32.60

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -49.48
Net Debt 49.81
Equity Value -99.29
Shares Outstanding 42.94
Equity Value Per Share -2.31