Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE)

$19.07

-0.48 (-2.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -217.60 | 19.07 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,647.673,323.033,830.541,810.023,230.773,768.104,394.805,125.735,978.226,972.49
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 537.31455.64739.64-234.93-383.71214.47250.14291.74340.26396.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 397.16278.91514.37-513.52-641.23-85.89-100.17-116.83-136.26-158.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 140.15176.73225.26278.59257.52300.35350.31408.57476.52555.77
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 901.791,107.521,084.281,896.061,439.821,846.482,153.572,511.752,929.493,416.71
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 119.1747.6694.82190.40128.83172.71201.43234.93274.01319.58
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 22.8239.3243.6028.4544.9546.3254.0363.0173.4985.72
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -778.36-784.39-192.44-548.830.54-665.68-776.40-905.53-1,056.13-1,231.78
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 19.07
Beta 1.056
Diluted Shares Outstanding 105
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 9.18
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.71%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.810
Total Debt 3,343.40
Total Equity 2,002.35
Total Capital 5,345.75
Debt Weighting 62.54
Equity Weighting 37.46
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,647.673,323.033,830.541,810.023,230.773,768.104,394.805,125.735,978.226,972.49
EBITDA 537.31455.64739.64-234.93-383.71214.47250.14291.74340.26396.85
EBIT 397.16278.91514.37-513.52-641.23-85.89-100.17-116.83-136.26-158.92
Tax Rate -18.93%24.02%23.18%30.88%9.18%13.66%13.66%13.66%13.66%13.66%
EBIAT 472.35211.93395.13-354.97-582.38-74.15-86.48-100.87-117.64-137.21
Depreciation 140.15176.73225.26278.59257.52300.35350.31408.57476.52555.77
Accounts Receivable -71.51-47.16-95.5861.57-43.88-28.72-33.50-39.07-45.57
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -16.504.28-15.1516.501.377.708.9910.4812.22
Capital Expenditure -778.36-784.39-192.44-548.830.54-665.68-776.40-905.53-1,056.13-1,231.78
UFCF -165.85-307.73385.08-735.93-246.25-481.99-533.59-622.34-725.84-846.56
WACC
PV UFCF -456.34-478.32-528.19-583.25-644.06
SUM PV UFCF -2,690.16

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.62
Free cash flow (t + 1) -863.49
Terminal Value -23,853.39
Present Value of Terminal Value -18,147.60

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -20,837.77
Net Debt 2,009.89
Equity Value -22,847.66
Shares Outstanding 105
Equity Value Per Share -217.60